Although the operation has not yet ended, it is already clear that as far as the military aspect is concerned, things are clearly in Israel's favor. Hamas prepared a whole host of surprises for a confrontation with the IDF: from tunnel attacks on the fence, anti-tank and sniper fire, and drone attacks and underwater tools, to an advanced tunnel system designed to face up to a possible ground entry into the Gaza Strip and provide shelter for Hamas operatives.
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All of these collapsed almost entirely in the last week. In fact, the only Hamas tool still in operation is the rocket fire. Here, too, the IDF has succeeded in significantly hitting some of the means, and the current effort is focused on hitting the multi-barreled launchers scattered throughout the Gaza Strip. According to various assessments, at the start of the campaign Hamas had more than 100 such launchers (with each capable of launching between 10-20 rockets simultaneously at different ranges) - and now half have been destroyed.
These hits partly explain Hamas' relative difficulty in launching long-range rockets. In recent days, it has become clear that the terrorist organization is pursuing a tighter firing discipline than at the beginning of the conflict with Israel. If in the first days of the campaign, barrages were launched from Gaza into the center of the country for every high-rise building bombed in the Strip, now the policy of the terrorist organization has changed and the strategic launches (mainly to the Dan metropolitan area) are used in response to exceptional IDF actions.
However, Hamas still has significant firepower, especially short-range, that yesterday claimed the lives of two Thai nationals working a packing house in one of the Gaza envelope settlements. To a large extent, this was reminiscent of the final days of Operation Protective Edge, in which two civilians were killed on its last day by a mortar shell in the area of Kibbutz Nirim.
The operational effort is now concentrated in three main areas: The first is the continued systematic damage to the tunnels dug by Hamas. The second, damage to additional infrastructure, including launch sites, headquarters and homes of leaders in the organization. Yesterday, the activity focused on Khan Yunis and Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, after being concentrated on the northern Gaza Strip in the first days of the operation, where most of the organization's force is, and from which most of the rockets were also launched into Israeli territory.
The third effort is to hurt senior officials. The IDF and Shin Bet devote many resources to this, and it is clear that the massive attacks on the tunnel system caused some of the senior officials to return to operating above ground. This should make the pursuit of them somewhat easier, as their relatively overt movements will generate more intelligence that will allow them to be located, but senior officials said some surround themselves with innocent civilians, mostly children, hoping to serve as a human shield for them. Although the IDF is careful not to harm as many "uninvolved" persons as possible, one source said yesterday that "anyone who thinks the other side will get immunity from us only because there are civilians around him is wrong."
As noted, the headache is now mainly shifting to the diplomatic arena. Although it has been made clear to the IDF that the operation is currently continuing without interruptions or pressure, behind the scenes there are constant contacts to bring an end to the fighting. Israel has already made it clear that it will not agree to any terms for a ceasefire, and the terms of the arrangement (hasdara) with Hamas will only be discussed in the future in accordance with developments on the ground. Thus, Israel is interested in gradually returning the entry of goods, the widening of the fishing areas and the entry of workers, only once it is certain that the shooting will not be renewed for a long time.
If the fire resumes nonetheless, including the launching of incendiary balloons, the IDF will require the political echelon to establish a new response equation, and even to immediately begin intensive renewed fighting. The IDF believes that only in this way will it be possible to maintain a strong deterrence in Gaza that will last for a long time. However, it is not clear how likely this demand will be implemented; similar ideas have emerged after previous operations, but have always encountered various difficulties – from the lack of international legitimacy to the unwillingness to expose the residents of the Gaza envelope community and the Israeli public to a new war.
Along with efforts to end the fighting in a way that will maximize not only the military achievement but also the diplomatic one, Israel must do everything to cool other sectors that threaten to erupt. Judea and Samaria was violent yesterday for the second time in recent days, including two attacks in Hebron and the Ayosh Junction. The northern arena also has not calmed down after the launch of the Katyushas on Tuesday night from Lebanon, which was added to a series of other events. Although Hezbollah has not joined the activity, it also does not try to curb it, which could hurl the parties into an unwanted confrontation.
On Tuesday, the IAF also intercepted a drone that penetrated Israeli territory in the north of the Jordan Valley. Although the IDF refrained from providing details of where the drone took off from, who is responsible for its launch and what cargo it was carrying, it can be assessed that the address is in Tehran. Iran is the only one that possesses such capability in the region, and has an interest in embarrassing Israel and trying to harm it. It is worth remembering that in February 2018, the IAF intercepted drones launched by the Iranians from a base in northern Syria, and since then Tehran has invested considerable effort in the field and even transferred drones of various types to several of its allies in the area.
In Israel, there was hope that the continuation of the fighting in Gaza would make it possible to sever the link between the campaign in the south and the other sectors, with an emphasis on Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria. Although Jerusalem has calmed down in recent days, Hamas can still be credited with significant achievements in the political arena, including taking the lead on the Palestinian street, putting the Palestinian issue back on the international agenda, and fermenting tensions in mixed Jewish-Arab cities in Israel. The day after the ceasefire, it will have to balance the huge price Gaza paid for it with the momentum it received in the other arenas. This struggle between its military losses and its civilian victory will largely determine the future reality in the south of Israel.
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