The diplomatic-security cabinet was set to convene, Sunday, over concerns of a security escalation on multiple fronts due to the spike in violence in Judea and Samaria, recent incidents on the Lebanese border, the firing of rockets from Syria, and increasing violence inside the country, as clashes with Hamas in the Gaza Strip continue.
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While the Israeli Air Force continued to pound Hamas infrastructure, rocket launchers, and anti-tank teams over the weekend, it has since moved on to attacks on the homes of senior Hamas officials. This step, which has been taken in previous operations in Gaza, is aimed at pressuring the Hamas leadership to expose and then strike it. So far, a few failed attempts have been made to strike the organization's military and political echelon, and this hunt will likely continue until the IDF operation known as Guardians of the Wall comes to a close.
The IDF also took the dramatic step of attacking Hamas' defensive underground tunnel systems, otherwise known as the "metro." Launching over 450 armaments, 150 Israeli fighter jets took part in the synchronized operation that continued just over half an over. The tunnels may have sustained serious damage, yet the attack did not achieve the planned outcome. The goal was to trap hundreds of Hamas activists in the tunnels, killing them in a move Israel hoped would provide the kind of victory that would determine the battle.
The operation involved years of planning and two commanders from the IAF and three from the IDF's Southern Command. It was to fool Hamas into believing the IDF was about to launch a ground invasion and as a result, send its people to the tunnels, where they would in fact meet their deaths.
This operation has been presented to the cabinet several times in the past and was even considered in November 2018, following a failed operation by a special unit in Khan Younis that killed Lt. M killed and led to a short-lived escalation in the south. When officials decided not to authorize the operation at the time, then-Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman resigned.
It appears the operation was launched under the code name "Blue South." Hamas, however, didn't buy Israel's tricks; tanks may have "stormed" in the direction of the border fences, and the IDF spokesman may have insinuated to foreign media outlets a ground invasion had been launched, yet only a few Hamas operatives headed to the tunnels and it remains unclear how many were killed, if at all.
The IDF tried to present the operation as a success, concealing the fact that the central part of the plan had failed. Keep in mind that, although this was a significant achievement, destroying the tunnels had not been the main focus of the plan. Hamas has nevertheless lost an ability it invested a great deal of money and effort on, without which it will find it more difficult to hide and safely move around Gaza.
In addition to failing to dupe Hamas, the move also led to harsh criticism of Israel by major international media outlets, who understood they have been lied to by a military spokesperson. This criticism grew following the strike on Gaza's Al-Jalaa tower, where several media outlets, including AP and Al Jazeera, had offices. While the tower also housed Hamas infrastructure the terrorist group hoped would be immune to Israeli attack thanks to its proximity to the media outlets, it is doubtful Israel correctly assessed the extent of the criticism it would face.
The escalation in fighting over the weekend led, as was expected, to increased international efforts for a ceasefire. Egypt is the main force behind this effort, and Cairo has relayed to Israel a commitment from all organizations in the coastal enclave to immediately halt hostilities. Israel, however, has rejected all the offers, including those for a brief humanitarian ceasefire. Noting pressure to sign a ceasefire agreement would likely increase given a scheduled meeting by the UN Security Council, Sunday, and growing criticism in the international media, a senior official emphasized, Saturday night, that "fighting would continue unchanged."
Despite the emphatic public statement, Israel has a growing dilemma on its hands. While in Gaza, the IDF has recorded a number of successes, the chances of a mishap that incurs mass casualties occurring is also on the rise. While the Homefront's defenses remain strong, they are not hermetic: Hamas may find it difficult to launch mass rocket salvos at Israel's center. Nevertheless, on Saturday, once again, it succeeded in taking lives.
The main concern is that attacks from Gaza may set off clashes on other fronts. In Judea and Samaria, a large number of violent clashes and attempted terrorist attacks took victims in the double-digits. While the IDF may have relayed messages aimed at calming the Palestinian Authority, some of them publicly, it's doubtful they will suffice. The dangerous combination of the end of the Ramadan holy month; Nakba Day, which marks the displacement of Palestinian refugees during Israel's War of Independence; and the fighting in Gaza have exacerbated tensions in the West Bank to the point where officials are concerned that widespread violence would require the majority of the IDF's attention.
Several incidents have also been recorded on our northern border. Alongside the launch of rockets from Lebanon, Thursday, and Syria, Friday, several violent events took place on the Lebanese border. In one such incident, IDF forces shot and killed a Lebanese man with ties to Hezbollah who penetrated Israeli territory in the area of Nahal Ayun. In another incident, the IDF fired at several people who managed to enter Israel and began running toward homes in the border town of Metula.
The assessment is that Hezbollah is not behind these incidents, the latter of which involved the laying of IEDs near the border. Nor has the Lebanese terrorist group made any attempt to use these incidents to its advantage. The principal challenge facing the IDF's Northern Command is deciding how to cool tensions on the border to prevent it from transforming into another active front that requires the Israeli military's attention. Israel relayed messages in this spirit to the Lebanese side through UNIFIL, the UN's temporary peacekeeping force. Nevertheless, the alert level has been raised on the other side of the border, and forces and resources have been pouring in.
The accumulation of these events alongside the rioting inside Israel that required Shin Bet security agents to join efforts to thwart violence and locate individuals involved will require Israel to decide which direction it is headed. Is it looking to continue the military operation in Gaza that risks sparking an escalation on additional fronts, or does it want a ceasefire in the south it hopes will calm the situation there and as a result in Judea and Samaria and the north as well as soon as possible.
It seems that at this point, Hamas is mainly interested in holding on. The terrorist organization will obviously present itself as the victor in the current round of fighting, which is why it has concealed the extent of the losses it has sustained to both infrastructure and its operatives' lives. From Hamas' standpoint, the very fact it is still standing and has succeeded in dragging additional fronts into the fray is a significant achievement that Israel will find it hard to counter. It seems that Israel then must focus less on looking for that image of victory and more on preventing an all-out conflagration. To this end, it will try to exact a price from Hamas and possibly take out some of its senior officials in the hope of deepening deterrence in Gaza the day after.
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