The information emerging from Iran and other sources on Monday did not paint the same picture in terms of the damage caused to the nuclear facility at Natanz.
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Although Western media outlets said the facility's electrical systems were badly damaged and would be out of commission for many months, officials in Iran claimed the facility was operational and that replacement centrifuges would be installed in the coming days.
This is not a theoretical debate. The purpose of the alleged attack at Natanz, according to assessments, was to stall the Iranian nuclear program and negate one of its main bargaining chips in looming nuclear talks with the United States. If the facility was in fact severely damaged – and all of the thousands of advanced centrifuges there were knocked out of use – it will take a long time, months, until it returns to operating at full capacity. The Americans can use this time, supposedly, to secure a better nuclear deal than the one signed in 2015.
The central question now is how the Iranians will react, both directly against Israel and in terms of the nuclear agreement. It is still broadly assumed that Iran will strive to restore the nuclear deal, if the US lifts sanctions. With that, the Iranians could demand, for example, guarantees that Israel won't hit any more facilities on Iranian soil – which Israel won't grant.
Another assumption is that Iran won't return to the nuclear deal without the full and immediate removal of economic sanctions. The opposite is the truth: It could use the latest event as a pretext to further dig in its heels in negotiations. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is immensely suspicious of the Americans regardless and could choose to wait until their intentions are clarified.
At the same time, Iran will have to decide how to respond against Israel. The belief in this regard – which happens to be the defense establishment's working assumption – is that Iran will retaliate. Iran has essentially sought to hit back at Israel since the assassination of chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh last November, which was attributed to the Mossad.
The chain of incidents since then, with an emphasis on the recently revealed maritime unrest, has only made Iran's need to respond more acute, both to placate public opinion at home and to re-establish a balance of mutual deterrence with Israel. We can expect Iran to seek a worthy and valuable enough target, albeit one that won't trigger an even harsher Israeli counterstrike.
One such example, which came to light on Monday, is the effort by Iranian intelligence services to lure Israelis to the Persian Gulf to either abduct or kill them. This is a familiar tactic the regime in Tehran has used to target dissenters. It's doubtful the targets were strictly businessmen or innocent civilians and were likely far more valuable in some cases.
This plot was revealed to warn Israelis who could be potential targets, but also to tell the Iranians their operation has been foiled. This certainly doesn't mean Iran will give up its pursuit of vengeance; just the opposite, Iran is angry and is looking for a quick and painful response. This means Israeli intelligence services need to be on high alert; it means every Israeli across the globe, both public envoys or private citizens, must be extremely cautious; and it means that Israel must deliver a clear and unmistakable message to Iran that any attack will result in resounding retaliation. This is the only way for Israel to keep the upper hand and avoid a dangerous formula of equal deterrence with Iran.
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