Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad visited Oman on March 20 to try to ease Syria's return to the Arab world via the Gulf States. Oman has played a traditional role as a regional go-between and has good relations with Iran as well.
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The Syrian move was coordinated with Russia – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently visited several Gulf States to open a path for Syria's return to the Arab League. The efforts are intended to prepare for a presidential election in Syria in three months. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to make the villain "kosher" and arrange another seven-year term for Assad, even though it has been 10 years since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, during which the Syrian president committed horrific war crimes against his own citizens.
According to Russian media reports, only 31% of Syrian citizens are expected to vote for Assad's continued tenure. It is difficult to see the presidential elections taking place on time in light of US and European opposition, the coronavirus crisis in Syria and the Assad regime's economic deterioration.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians were killed in the Syrian civil war, tens of thousands of others were arrested and tortured, and millions fled and were displaced from their homes.
The Biden administration is cautious and monitoring events in Syria, especially given the tense relations between Putin and Biden and the attacks by Syrian forces on civilians on March 21. As the new US administration begins to unveil its policy toward Syria, Washington is setting conditions for recognition of the presidential election.
Marking the 10th anniversary of the war, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a joint statement with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy, expressing firm opposition to the idea of an election:
"Impunity is unacceptable, and we will firmly continue to press for accountability for the most serious crimes. We will continue to support the important role of the Commission of Inquiry and the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism. We welcome the ongoing efforts by national courts to investigate and prosecute crimes within their jurisdiction committed in Syria. We will not tolerate Syria's non-compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention…
"The proposed Syrian presidential election this year will neither be free nor fair, nor should it lead to any measure of international normalization with the Syrian regime. Any political process needs the participation of all Syrians, including the diaspora and the displaced, to enable all voices to be heard."
The position of the new US administration is that the only way forward for a political settlement in Syria is in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which was passed on Dec. 18, 2015, and established a "roadmap" for ending the Syrian civil war and finding a political settlement.
In the US House of Representatives, members introduced new legislation on March 19, 2021, named the "Iran Human Rights and Accountability Act of 2021," which "requires a determination whether Iran and its militias [Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq] committed crimes against humanity."
According to Gulf, Saudi and Qatari officials who rejected requests from Lavrov, Russia is the main force supporting Assad as president of Syria. They conditioned Syria's return to the Arab League on securing a comprehensive political solution that would also be acceptable to the Syrian opposition.
The Biden administration is taking a firm stance against the presidential elections in Syria and aligns with the position of European countries that such elections are essentially a Russian-Syrian exercise aimed at rehabilitating Assad's presidency.
The US administration is also enforcing the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which went into effect last June and imposed sanctions on the Assad regime and anyone who assists it.
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"Caesar" is a Syrian defector who worked for the Syrian military police and smuggled over 50,000 photographs of Syrian torture victims out of the country. His photographs are now crucial evidence in European trials against Syrian officials.
Biden's Syria policy thus far seems to be a continuation of the Trump administration's policies. Despite Biden's attempts to create a dialogue with Iran on the nuclear deal, he is not compromising on Syria, which is a significant point.
Russia can financially assist the Assad regime and prop him up militarily. Putin wants Assad to continue in office, but the international community will not accept presidential elections without oversight to eliminate election fraud. It will be interesting to see what "legitimacy" Putin will arrange for Assad.
Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.