With voting stations now open, Israel Hayom breaks down the numerous scenarios that could unfold in the next few days.
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A 61-seat majority for the Right
In the previous three elections, this scenario has evaded Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It remains his primary goal. Thus far, according to most polls, it appears this target will fall just beyond outside his reach. Some polls have indicated it's still possible, however, and none of the polls prior to the previous elections gave Netanyahu any chance for a 61-seat coalition.
Working against Netanyahu is the fact that Naftali Bennett, who in all the previous elections was an inseparable part of the Netanyahu-led rightwing bloc, has currently positioned himself as the deciding factor, uncommitted to either side. In any situation, Netanyahu will need Bennett to form a coalition. Without him, it won't be possible to form a right-wing coalition.
If a right-wing coalition is established, it will be the most homogenous coalition possible, consisting of parties who have already sat in the same government and won't have any problem cooperating with one another.
Odd of success: Medium
A coalition of 61 against Netanyahu, without the Arab parties
In the previous three elections, Netanyahu's detractors won the majority, yet despite creating an obstructionist bloc that prevented him from forming a government, still failed to form a government themselves when they received the president's mandate to do so.
The difference this time around is Gideon Sa'ar as chairman of an independent political party, and Bennett's decision to effectively sit on the fence between both blocs.
Another factor jeopardizing this bloc is the fact that the left-wing parties are more divided than ever – some of them at risk of failing to pass the electoral threshold altogether. If they all make it, the bloc could outgrow its current power, which could ultimately pave the way for a coalition capable of removing Netanyahu without the Arab parties.
If this happens, such a coalition would be heterogeneous and struggle to function over time, as it would comprise unabashed leftist parties on one hand and right-wing parties on the other.
Odds of success: Very low – no poll has indicated this is a reasonable scenario
Bennett and Sa'ar join forces
Yair Lapid's plan to receive the president's mandate to form the next government depends on Yesh Atid emerging as the largest party in the left-wing bloc. In such a scenario, if Netanyahu fails in the task of forming a coalition, Lapid could be tabbed by the president. Lapid, however, will have a hard time creating a government because the ultra-Orthodox parties have vowed to boycott him, and because Bennett has promised not to serve under Lapid as prime minister.
To circumvent this obstacle, Sa'ar and Bennett could unite after the election to create a joint list with more mandates than Lapid – and receive the mandate to form the next government instead. In this scenario, there's a good chance that a government sans the Likud can be formed. This depends, of course, on the number of mandates each of the relevant players receives.
The Haredi factions might also hitch their wagons to this move, able to say that after Netanyahu failed to form a government, and because a Bennett-Sa'ar government is still right-wing, there's nothing stopping them from dismantling their alliance with Netanyahu in order to prevent a fifth election.
The problem with this scenario is that beyond their ability to secure the requisite number of mandates, it isn't certain the Haredim will agree to sit with Lapid, even if he isn't prime minister, or with Avigdor Lieberman. It also isn't certain that Lapid will agree to serve under Bennett and Sa'ar.
If such a coalition arises, the only thing its components will have in common is the desire to remove Netanyahu from power. On all other issues, the sides are likely to disagree and will have a hard time functioning as a coalition for very long.
Odds of success: Medium to low
A surprise kingmaker – Bennett or Mansour Abbas
Throughout the entire election race, just two parties didn't swear allegiance to any camp: Bennett's Yamina party and Mansour Abbas' Ra'am party. Consequently, neither is at risk of breaking a promise if he chooses to join Netanyahu, or join those who want him gone. In such a scenario, there's a chance the task of forming a government sans Likud could succeed.
Netanyahu doesn't have a coalition without Bennett. If he doesn't have 61 seats with him, his predicted chances of forming a different coalition are likely zero. Is this really the case? More than a few political figures believe the alliance between Netanyahu and Abbas is stronger than it seems, and that if need be, the prime minister can present a coalition relying on support from Ra'am. Netanyahu has said he won't do this, and his other partners, such as Bennett and Bezalel Smotrich, have already stated they will not allow it to happen. At the end of the day, however, it will all depend on the alternatives.
Bennett, too, could make a surprise move by eschewing a 61-seat right-wing majority, for example, which is only possible with him on board. Bennett would only do this if he concludes another coalition is viable.
According to assessments, if shunning a Netanyahu-led coalition of 61 seats means going to another election, Bennett will choose to join under Netanyahu rather than be held responsible for yet another election campaign.
Odds of success: Difficult to determine – depends solely on the numbers
A fifth election
This would mean a fourth consecutive failure to break the political deadlock. Although this time it appears that both sides are more determined and eager to form a coalition at any cost, including with Arab MKs, it's still possible no one will be able to form a coalition.
Netanyahu is more motivated than ever to form a coalition because Benny Gantz could become prime minister in November, based on their rotation agreement. The opposition, too, is more motivated than ever and is willing to accept any constellation that ousts Netanyahu from power.
Odds of success (or, to be more precise, failure): Not bad at all, unfortunately
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