Much of next week's elections will boil down to a simple question: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Yamina leader Naftali Bennett?
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In many ways, this is a natural, authentic and – in the long run – constructive political duel, and it is certainly far more constructive than the rivalry between New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar and Netanyahu.
Sa'ar's efforts to bring about a "big bang" in the national camp via a rift in the Likud may have been vary satisfying for the Left to watch, but they have evoked much antagonism on the Right – just before it tired of it. The decline of New Hope in the polls reflects the fact that the Right discounts Sa'ar and no longer sees him as part of the bloc.
This is very similar to what happened to Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman when he broke away from the Right. In a classic case of "guilt by association," the Right sees the Left's sympathy for Sa'ar and his party and has reached the expected conclusion: Sa'ar is not no longer a member of its ranks.
This does not make Sa'ar an irrelevant opponent, as Netanyahu contends, but it does make him an outsider – a non-right-wing rival challenging the prime minister. This cannot be said of Bennett, and that's where things get interesting.
Netanyahu's supporters understand that the fight for the leadership of the Right has entered a new phase. Bennett has challenged the prime minister without affiliating himself with the Left, without echoing the talking points of the "Anything but Bibi" campaign, without being dismissive of loyal Likud voters, and without alienating the traditional, natural partners of the Right.
This goes beyond Bennett's aspiration to be the kingmaker in the next elections. This is a smart, strategic decision by Bennett that plays into his message of "I want to lead the Right." Considering that Sa'ar's message is "I want to change the Right," the psychopolitical impact is tremendous.
One thing must be clear, though: this is not an even playing field. Netanyahu enjoys massive support and this voter base allows Likud to claim its place as the ruling party not solely based on the electoral math but on the basis of strong, charismatic leadership and vast public support. Bennett cannot say the same.
Even if by some electoral miracle Bennett will be in a position to demand a premiership rotation with Netanyahu, it would be the result of the optimal utilization of the constellation of the coalition – not fleeting popularity.
This would still be a far cry from reflecting the public's genuine preference but at least it would be Bennett attempting to properly play the political hand he was dealt. He knows that even if he finds himself in the Prime Minister's Office it would be by the grace of a coalition agreement – not the public vote.
This, of course, would also give way to the absurd reality by which the man leaving the Prime Minister's Office enjoys much greater support than his successor – something that is as true of Bennett that it is of Sa'ar or Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid.
These may all seem like far-fetched scenarios but in many ways, Bennett has not "outsourced" the political battle vis-à-vis Netanyahu and has opted to wage it on the home field – within the Right. This may not be the fight for the Right that Bennett would have wanted to wage, but he has emerged as a more worthy opponent than Sa'ar.
Likud and Yamina are two teams that do not play in the same league, but at least they make the game worth watching.
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