A US intelligence report released Friday concluded Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman authorized either the kidnapping or assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.
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The details of the report, which have been reported in the past, are based on circumstantial evidence.
So, for example, the report bases its assessment on the crown prince's control of the decision-making process in the kingdom, the direct involvement of his adviser Saud al-Qahtani and members of the royal security system in the killing, and his support for the use of violent means to silence opponents of the regime overseas.
It seems US President Joe Biden's administration could have sufficed with a public condemnation to placate the Democratic party's puritanical wing, a wing that is nevertheless less puritanical when it comes to Iran.
Yet the US secretary went even further. In a statement that followed, Antony Blinken announced a "Khashoggi Ban" that would allow the White House to impose visa restrictions on figures who act "on behalf of a foreign government, are believed to have been directly engaged in serious, extraterritorial counter-dissident activities, including those that suppress, harass, surveil, threaten, or harm journalists, activists, or other persons perceived to be dissidents for their work, or who engage in such activities with respect to the families or other close associates of such persons."
The ban, which went into immediate effect, was imposed on 76 Saudis the US believes were involved in threatening opponents of the regime, including Khashoggi, overseas. As a result, the US Treasury will sanction former Saudi intelligence official Ahmad Asiri, bin Salman's guards, and members of the elite Saudi unit known as the "Tiger Squad," among others. Asked why no sanctions were imposed on the crown prince himself, Blinken replied that the US was interested in recalibrating and not cutting off its Saudi ties.
Anyone who has followed the Saudi arena and its ties with the US since Biden entered office might, however, view this move as Washington once again turning its back on a central ally in the name of serving as a beacon of liberal values. Yet US officials would be hard-pressed to find a more liberal alternative to bin Salman in Riyadh.
Nevertheless, the Biden administration has not sufficed with taking the Houthi rebels off the US's terrorist list, saying it intends to halt support for the Saudi coalition in the war in Yemen, and hopes for a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Now, it has imposed sanctions on members of the Saudi regime.
From Riyadh's standpoint, this is even more insulting given its recent efforts to appease the Biden White House. Political activists, most prominent among them Loujain al-Hathloul, have been released from prison, and the kingdom announced its intention to implement a series of judicial reforms. In addition, Riyadh made extreme concessions to reach a reconciliation with and remove its blockade of Qatar despite the Gulf state failing to meet any of the demands laid out by boycotting parties three years prior.
At the same time, Iran has increased its provocations against the kingdom. The Houthis in Yemen ramped up their drone attacks, damaging a passenger airplane at an airport in southern Saudi Arabia. The ayatollahs last month went even farther when, according to an Associated Press report, drones, whose Iranian components were put together in Iraq, were launched by Shia militias on the Iraqi border, toward Riyadh, ultimately crashing in the vicinity of the Saudi royal palace.
Saudi Arabia may have rejected the US statement, which it called "false and unacceptable," as well as any move that would impact its leadership, sovereignty, or the independence of its judicial system. The Saudi Foreign Ministry claimed the US intelligence report contained "inaccurate information and conclusions." It also once again distanced itself from the "group of individuals" it said had acted in violation of all regulations and authorities and emphasized the kingdom had taken steps to prosecute and sentence those involved within the framework of its judicial system.
Yet the Saudi Foreign Ministry didn't completely shut the door on the US, instead emphasizing the partnership between Riyadh and Washington was "robust and enduring."
Toward the end of former US President Donald Trump's term in office, Israel Hayom reported the crown prince faced a dilemma as to whether to normalize ties with Israel. On one hand, the window of opportunity to do so was closing, while the move was met with opposition from the kingdom's more conservative members, chief among them Saudi King Salman, who has continued to support the Saudi peace initiative. On the other hand, it was unclear what bin Salman had to gain under the Biden administration that he couldn't have achieved under Trump.
Given the impasse in Israel-Palestinian talks, the Arab initiative still seems irrelevant. Israel is not expected to see the formation of a left-wing coalition following the coming March 23 election. And even in the shadow of the coronavirus, the Palestinians do not appear to be very interested in forging closer ties. Elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, to be held on May 22, could end in a victory for Hamas that sees the terror group gain a foothold in the Palestinian Authority.
Against this background, bin Salman appears to have missed the train to normalization. He continues to face opposition from the kingdom's conservative wing, has zero chance of being able to sponsor a political process between Ramallah and Jerusalem, and whatever he could have achieved under Trump is no longer on the table.
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