Israel's next general election could see as many as seven minor political parties, as well as one longtime political player, fail to cross the electoral threshold, a Channel 12 News survey projected Tuesday.
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Israelis will head to the polls for the fourth time in two years on March 23. The elections, called merely nine months after the Likud-Blue and White national unity government was inducted, have rattled the political sphere, shattering alliances on the Left and the Right, and introducing a host of new factions into the mix.
Were elections held at this time, Channel 12 News projected the Likud would retain its lead with 29 Knesset seats, followed by New Hope (16), Yamina (13), Yesh Atid (13), the Joint Arab List (10), Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas (8), Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism (8), Yisrael Beytenu (7), the Israelis party (6), Meretz (5), and Blue and White (5).
As previous polls by all media outlets have shown, the Labor, Gesher, Habayit Hayehudi, and far-Right Otzma Yehudit parties are not expected to cross the four-seat electoral threshold.
The recently announced independent parliamentary bids by Telem chief Moshe Ya'alon, National Union chair Bezalel Smotrich, Tnufa head Ofer Shelah, and Economic party leader Yaron Zelekha are also expected to fail.
Political experts said some of these factions are likely to merge ahead of Feb. 4 – the deadline by which all slates must register with the Central Election Committee.
The poll, however, showed that the Likud-led Right and Center-Left blocs could again have equal chances of forming a coalition, thus increasing the risk yet another election would have to be called.
Channel 12 News further predicted that if all center-left parties merged, their Knesset list would win 28 seats, compared to 30 for Likud.
The survey was conducted by the Midgam institute among 508 respondents constituting a representative sample of Israeli adults. It has a margin of error was 4.4 percentage points.
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