While US President-elect Joe Biden has yet to fill key cabinet and foreign-policy positions in his next administration, top US allies in the Arab Gulf are voicing concerns Washington will revert to a more friendly posture toward Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, including a return to the Iranian nuclear deal.
Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, the former head of Saudi Intelligence and chairman of the Saudi King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, warned Washington on Tuesday of repeating the same mistakes it made when it signed the nuclear accord in 2015.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
"Mr. President-elect, do not repeat the mistakes and shortcomings of the first deal. Any non-comprehensive deal will not achieve lasting peace and security in our region," Al Arabiya reported the prince as saying.
"Iranian disruptive regional behavior in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, by attacking, directly and indirectly, the oil installations, is as much of a threat as is its nuclear program," said Prince Turki.
The Gulf states are holding out hope, however, that after witnessing four years of Iran's nefarious behavior following US President Barack Obama's signing onto the accord, a Biden administration would take a more sober view of any deal with Iran.
"I think Gulf states are hoping that Biden will govern as a centrist with an experienced team and will address the weaknesses of the JCPOA," Ali Shihabi, an author and commentator on the Middle East with a focus on Saudi Arabia, told JNS, using the official term for the 2015 deal.
If the Biden administration governs in such a way, then it will "get the support of Gulf states," he added.
Under US President Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states developed a transactional relationship with Washington. Trump took a less hostile approach to the Saudis on their poor human-rights record and refrained from criticism over its role in the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi and involvement in the devastating war in Yemen. Most analysts expect a Biden administration to adopt a more values-based foreign policy that could be more critical of allies like Saudi Arabia.
Biden is also expected to push for greater efforts to combat climate change, which may include more pressure on the oil-rich Gulf states to cut back on production and emissions. Still, these countries are looking to diversify their economies, something that could provide new opportunities for cooperation.
Indeed, the normalization deals with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain reflect these countries' desires to focus on investment and developing economic ties, especially in areas such as high-tech. At the same time, the Sunni Arab states' warming relations with the Jewish State serves as an insurance policy against a future administration that seeks rapprochement with Tehran. If it can't count on Washington to counter Iranian attacks and aggressive behavior, then an alliance with Israel would be the next best thing, they wager.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
Brandon Friedman, director of research at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, said, "The Arab Gulf states have been hedging their bets regarding US policy towards Gulf security since the second Obama term."
"Normalization with Israel, broadening ties with China, and Saudi declarations regarding future nuclear development reflects the strategic hedge. In less declaratory fashion, the Saudi and Emirati interest in ballistic missiles also reflect that reality," he said.
Nevertheless, added Friedman, "Many of the Gulf Arab states would probably welcome a return to the JCPOA under the right terms."
Muslim Brotherhood commits 'violence and terrorism'
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are also concerned about the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots seeking to remake states in the Middle East, as Turkey and Qatar push the Sunni revolutionary ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the region. Additional Arab states, such as Jordan, Egypt, and Sudan, are trying to keep domestic Islamists at bay.
Saudi Arabia's Council of Senior Scholars last week labeled the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group, saying it did not represent Islam and only seeks "to grab the reins of power."
The council added that the group wreaks havoc and commits "violence and terrorism."
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi designated the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization in 2014.
Eran Segal, a research fellow at the Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States research at the University of Haifa, said it was fair to assume that the Gulf states are concerned with possible policy changes in Washington.
"They are concerned with the change of views regarding the Muslim Brotherhood. It is no coincidence that last week the Saudis stressed again the fact that it is a terrorist organization," said Segal.
He assessed that the Saudis and Emiratis suspect Democrats "can create an atmosphere that enables the rise of the Brotherhood in the Sunni world, like [it did] a decade ago. This is, in my view, what they see as a threat similar to the threat from Iran, if not a bigger one."
Under Obama, Washington supported the organization and invited its leaders to the White House. It also criticized the ouster of former Muslim Brotherhood member and Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi by the military in 2013.
Reprinted with permission from JNS.org
