A key interest for Americans and Israelis in US presidential elections every four years is the Jewish voter. The Jewish vote drew attention this year mainly due to US President Donald Trump's perceived pro-Israel moves over the last four years. How did these moves measure up against other pressing issues like the coronavirus pandemic and its effect on the economy? And what are the implications for Israel when incoming President-elect Joe Biden administration enters the White House in January?
The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs hosted an online symposium last week titled, "The US Elections and the Jewish vote: Priorities and Concerns of American Jews and the Implications for Israel" to discuss the issue. Dore Gold, president of the JCPA, noted that "a lot of the commentary [leading up to the elections] not just in the Jewish community was that different groups in American society were going to alter their orientation as a result of developments that had occurred since the last election."
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Indeed, according to numerous reports since the election, Trump appears to have picked up votes since 2016 in multiple demographics. Yet some of this could be attributed to turnout, which was at its highest levels in decades. Both candidates picked up records of amounts of votes with Trump over 73 million and Biden closing in on 80 million in the popular vote count.
An American Jewish Committee survey of US Jews before the election found that 75% would choose former Vice President Joe Biden and 22% would vote for Trump. With the election now over, Trump appears to have exceeded expectations, garnering about 30% of the Jewish vote.
While Trump did do better than expected among American Jewish voters, his pro-Israel policies were not enough to convince most Jews, who are overwhelmingly Democrat, to support him. The AJC survey showed that the most important issues for American Jewish voters were domestic concerns, such as COVID-19 (26%), health care (17%), the economy (13%), race relations (12%), and crime (6%), with a small minority (5%) listing foreign policy as their most important concern.
Gold emphasized the importance for Israel to keep its finger on the pulse of Americans across the country.
"If we can get a sense at the very beginning of where America is going, it will help us operate intelligently in the period ahead," he said. "No one can really answer this with assuredness. Being cognizant of what is going on in the debates in different communities and geographic parts of America will help Israel understand its most important ally."
Don't allow Israel to become a wedge issue
Blue and White MK Michal Cotler-Wunsh said it was "important to understand the elections so that we can improve and deepen the engagement not just between Israel and the US, but between Israel and North American Jewry."
She also said it was "imperative" there be continued bipartisan collaboration and engagement between Israel and the United States.
"We need to depoliticize the relationship and not allow Israel to become a wedge issue," she added.
Steven Windmueller, a Jerusalem Center Fellow and emeritus professor of Jewish Communal Studies at the Hebrew Union College-Jewish Institute of Religion in Los Angeles, said this election was "a battle over the Jewish vote in terms of why and what it represents."
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"Over 73 million people voted for Trump, which is an extraordinary statement that his ideas, politics, and imprint are not leaving the political scene," he said. "And in many ways, the polling data suggests we have many multiple Jewish expressions in this election."
Windmueller pointed to the outcome of the election as a sign that a core issue for American Jews is anti-Semitism.
"Every poll prior to the election pointed to the strong sense of insecurity and concern among US Jews," he said. "American Jews, for the first time in their history, are weighing pressures of having threats to their political right and left. How that will define Jewish political behavior moving forward will be the core story as an outcome of this election."
Windmueller said it was important to understand that American Jews have a "deep and abiding love for Israel," but that "it did not show up on Nov. 3 in the context of American Jewish voters."
"As long as Israel is not in crisis," he observed, "American Jewish voters will not bring that issue forward in the same kind of intensity as we have seen in the past."
Windmueller concluded his remarks by saying that the "re-engagement of Israel is an important theme in helping American Jews understand the mix of interests they have along with other competing identities and values that are redefining who and what the American Jewish polity is about."
'Iranian aggression in the region must be countered'
Irwin Mansdorf, a Jerusalem Center Fellow specializing in political psychology, said that as far as the Jewish vote is concerned, "there is a difference between Jewish Biden and Trump voters overstating their love for Israel unconditionally."
He said most American Jews "see themselves as liberal and do not always see anti-Israelism as anti-Semitism, which is viewed as a right-wing issue. Israel-related issues are not 'make-or-break.'"
Mansdorf also noted a smaller, "hardcore" group of Jewish Americans who are "openly antagonistic to Israel," and that there is a "willingness to vote for candidates clearly unsympathetic to Israel even among mainstream Jewish Americans."
He found a large amount of unfamiliarity in the Jewish community of three important issues: Palestinian financial support for terror, Nazi-themed anti-Semitism within Palestinian media, and Iranian Holocaust denial and anti-Semitism.
One of the bottom-line conclusions, according to Mansdorf, is that being "pro-Israel" is not a yes-or-no answer and "may not be a term we can use anymore, and because of that, we need to pay attention to this issue and the conditional aspect of voters being pro- or not pro-Israel."
William Daroff, CEO of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, emphasized that "although the reins of power in Washington will be changing hands, the special US-Israel relationship will continue to thrive, as it has for decades."
"The big-picture, long-term policy decisions of the incoming administration will have a significant impact in the Middle East," he said. "Iranian aggression in the region must be countered, and the ayatollah [Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khameini]'s nuclear development cannot be allowed to continue unabated."
Concerning the talk of renegotiating the Iran nuclear deal, Daroff said, "It is our hope that any new Iran deal be more far-reaching and comprehensive regarding Iran's actions in the region and its nuclear ambitions for the long term."
Turning to the Palestinian issue, he spoke of the incoming Biden administration's interest in re-engaging the Palestinians to get them back to the negotiating table, as well as restoring aid to the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees.
"Biden is committed to abiding by the Taylor Force Act, a congressional act that forbids US funding of the Palestinian Authority's abhorrent 'pay-to-slay' program wherein terrorists and their families are rewarded for their murderous acts. So we'll see how they thread this needle – hopefully, in a way that changes this noxious policy."
Addressing the US-Israel relationship, Daroff said "personnel is policy."
"Certain appointments will have far-reaching consequences," he noted, and those people in key roles "will set the tone for the special relationship under the Biden administration."
Nevertheless, he emphasized, "I am optimistic about the path ahead."
Reprinted with permission from JNS.org
