The race to secure 270 electors that would guarantee a clear-cut winner in the US presidential elections hit a snag Wednesday. By morning, the predictions that Democratic challenger Joe Biden would see a landslide victory over President Donald Trump had failed, and the United States found itself waking up to political uncertainty that could last for days, if not weeks.
Even worse, the US now faces the potential constitutional nightmare by which neither Biden nor Trump secures enough electors to declare victory.
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As of Wednesday morning (Israel time), Arizona was the only state to change its 2016 vote and cross from Republican red to Democratic blue. This means that Trump actually has to win the majority of the electors in the Midwest – assuming he keeps the states he won in 2016, including the only district he won in Maine, which divides electors by districts).
This is not an impossible scenario for Trump, while on the other hand, Biden road to 270 electors requires he wins Pennsylvania, and either Michigan or Wisconsin, as well as keep all of 2016's "blue states" on the Democrat's side.
As things stand, each candidate has to secure the support of 26 additional electors from the Midwest – assuming no other state flips.
For both sides, the nightmare scenario would be if Trump were declared the winner in Pennsylvania, while Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin. Should this be the case – and assuming no other state changes allegiances – the Democrats and the Republicans will tie with 269 electors each.
A tie of this nature would be a first in US history. If it comes to pass, electing the president would fall to the House of Representatives, when it will be next in session, on Jan. 6, 2021, while the Senate will be tasked with electing the vice president.
Most political experts in the US believe that in this case, Trump will be re-elected president because of the electoral system, which specifies that in the event the House is called upon to decide the issue, each state is given only one vote.
Either way, it seems that the tie scenario is a long way away, as chances are that if 270 electors would be in one side's grasp over small differences in one of the Midwest states, appeals would be filed with the relevant state's authorities to hold a recount or disqualify allegedly fraudulent votes.
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