What was supposed to be for US President Donald Trump an easy, pleasant trip to visit supporters across the country on his way to a second term in office turned into a dizzying, close, stressful campaign, and mainly an election campaign whose end was unknown. President Trump needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat after nearly every poll and every political analyst pointed to an upheaval that would make him a one-term president.
Americans don't generally switch presidents, and tend to give him a second term, which might be the strongest thing he has going for him. For good or bad, people know what they'll get if they re-elect him, and the vast majority, even those who oppose him, agree that he has created growth and prosperity that no one thought possible.
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This election is in effect a choice between two slogans – "It's the economy, stupid!" or "It's the COVID, stupid!" This paraphrasing of the familiar line from Bill Clinton's campaign is no coincidence: COVID changed the rules of the game, just like Trump's very candidacy four years ago turned all the polling models on their heads (and to the biggest election surprise since Harry Truman's second win).
The American president hoped that he would be rewarded for bringing unbelievable economic growth, pension saving for nearly every citizen, improving unemployment, including among minorities (which led to surprising support for the president among young Black men and even Hispanics), and for restoring the honor of America and the Midwest states that had been left behind by the elite. Joe Biden is hoping that voters will forget all that and remember only the last few months of 2020, and mostly forget that there are Democrats in Congress who want to turn the US into a socialist shadow of itself.
The COVID pandemic no doubt stole the show in the 2020 election. The America that flourished under Trump (low unemployment, a flourishing stock market) changed and became an America under pressure, worried, with over 200,000 dead, newly unemployed, and mostly new race riots, including some this week in Philadelphia.
The hero who stole the show
This isn't how things were supposed to be. I visited America at the start of this year. At the end of January, at an impressive ceremony at the White House, Donald Trump presented his plan of the century that hinted about the agreements that were on the way and the application of Israeli sovereignty. The atmosphere at the White House was one of noble rejoicing.
It was clear then that Trump had become not only a talented politician (despite only having done so officially in June 2015), but also a statesman. One could continue to mock him, but he had gotten results. Beyond that, at the start of the year Trump survived his impeachment trial in the Senate. Everything was rosy.
Immediately after the ceremony for the plan of the century, Trump's team gathered to leave for Iowa, where the presidential campaign starts with its caucus. Trump was effectively the only Republican candidate, but he still had to officially compete in the primaries, for the protocol, while all eyes were on the Democratic side, where Joe Biden was in war of attrition with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who represented the socialist left in the race. Trump's team, along with the loyal advisors who were with him, Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie, were feeling optimistic. The Republicans were convinced that Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic candidate and in a book they recently published they say they were sure Trump would "eat him alive."
But they didn't think that Biden, who lost so many states at the start of the Democratic race, including Iowa and New Hampshire, would turn things around in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday and win the Democratic nomination. Back then, who believed that Kamala Harris, who had won only 2% of the total votes in the Democratic primaries, would come back as the vice presidential candidate?
But Iowa, where everything started for Biden, and where Trump ran as the Republicans' guaranteed candidate, is now a historical memory. Iowa at the time was firmly on the red side of the map, and now there is a real fight there between the blues and the reds. Then, Trump was an admired figure in the Midwestern state, and Biden barely managed to bring 200 people to the rally he held in freezing Des Moines (I was at that rally, and I saw how alone he was).
Even the gang of Democratic journalists (almost all of them) thought that Biden was done for and wouldn't win the nomination of a party that is heading farther and farther to the Left and distancing itself from the mainstream it represents. But snow-covered Iowa was the delusion of a winter day. So was New Hampshire.
While Biden seemed lost then, Trump insisted on campaigning even though his nomination was ensured, among other reasons to show how united around him the Republicans were, while the Democrats were in utter chaos (which turned into real chaos during the Iowa vote counting, when the Democrats' computer systems crashed).
The enthusiasm for the president in Iowa, and the rest of the states where he was running as effectively the only candidate in the Republican primaries, was enormous. Trump even broke Reagan's record in New Hampshire. But he didn't know that his rally in South Caroline in March would be the last one for a long time because of a mystery virus that was even then making its way from China to the rest of the world. He didn't know that there would be an unexpected here of the 2020 election who would steal the show. Trump did shut down flights from China in January, but like many others, did not grasp the magnitude.
And there was something else that upended everything, in Minnesota. George Floyd being choked to death sparked an outbreak of violence in America that was reminiscent of the 1960s. Statues, and not only statues, came down. Trump's great America started to suffer blows.
Trump, being Trump, chose to fight in his own way, which not everyone liked, by presenting himself as someone who would wield a strong arm to restore law and order. He hoped that by doing so, he would capture the hearts of suburban voters, like he did in 2016, but that message was forgotten by the tribal and divided America.
Back to 1992
In 2016, I was in the US many times – in Florida, in Pennsylvania, in Texas, and Nevada – to watch Trump's wonderful campaign up close. This week, I went back to those same places. I added Arizona, where Trump arrived this week to ensure it would not turn blue.
I also stopped in Dallas, Texas, briefly. I saw how once again they were talking about a tie, with the possibility of the Democrats winning the southern state (if that happens, it's all over), but four years ago the Democrats also thought they had a chance to "steal" Texas, and it ended in tears. This year Biden is optimistic about Georgia and spent Tuesday campaigning in the southern state that last voted for the Democrats in 1992 (thanks to Bill Clinton being from the South).
Are we back in 1992? Remember, that year George Bush thought that he would ride into a second term on the glory of the Gulf War and his success in bringing the Cold War to and end; but voters wanted a change, mostly because of the recession.
This time the voters are pleased with Trump (52% say he is doing well), and also believe that he would do a better job of handling the economy, but still – the polls say – want a change. Not because of Biden's rhetorical abilities or talents, but because Biden hasn't been campaigning and has let COVID do his work for him.
In Pennsylvania, both candidates held a number of election rallies this week, almost simultaneously. There was a good reason for that: this year, Pennsylvania could decide things. Polls show that Pennsylvania and the Midwest, which gave Trump his victory in 2016, are leaning toward Biden. So Trump will do everything to win Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes: it's purple, like Florida, and can influence the rest of the Midwest, from Ohio to Michigan and Wisconsin. Not for nothing is it known as the Keystone State.
As we've said, the ace in Trump's sleeve is that the Americans hate to oust a sitting president, but he has something else that could play to his advantage: Biden's call for the US to stop subsidizing the fracking and coal mining industries. This would mean a fatal blow for many voters in the area, and Trump is taking advantage of every opportunity to remind voters of that.
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Trump is also on the defensive in Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona – all of which he won four years ago. He needs to win in all of them again. If we compared it to a soccer match, it seems as if Biden is playing in the center of the pitch, running out time because of the polls, while Trump is heading out with four strikers and looking for a win at the 90th minute.
Campaigns in a cloud of doubt
And of course, at the rallies themselves the differences could be seen. Trump is pugnacious, laughs at "Sleepy Joe," and tires to say again and again that Biden isn't fit and doesn't remember names, whereas Biden mocks Trump's handling of COVID. But voters, the polls say, aren't being influenced by either side's campaign.
Trump never stops bringing up the subject of alleged corruption by Joe Biden's son Hunter, who allegedly made corrupt deals in which he used his connections to the man who was vice president at the time. There was also the shocking interview with Tony Bobulinski, a former US Navy officer who worked with the Bidens and was a witness to the incriminating allegations, in which he claimed that Biden knew about all his son's deals. Imagine the reverse, and one of Trump's sons was suspected of making huge money off his contacts in the White House.
But the revelations about the Biden family aren't gaining traction, nor the revelations about Trump's tax returns. The voters mostly want it all to be over. As we said, it's the COVID, stupid. During Biden's very strange rallies, which were held in drive-through format due to COVID, he talks about the very difficult winter ahead of us, and even assesses that we are facing especially tough times. Trump does exactly the opposite. He tries to play down the dangers of the virus and fire up the voters with optimism.
He talks about the number of people who recover, and threatens the American public that Biden will lock America down. Either way, this week was a particularly successful one for Trump, who managed to get Senate confirmation for his Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett. This is the third justice he has appointed, along with nearly 200 other judges to lower courts, and he hopes that his base will reward him for it.
So how is it that Trump could still win? Because it isn't over until it's over. It's no wonder that the New York Times, which missed badly four years ago, stated this week that the polls in Pennsylvania could not be depended upon. This, after one of the employees of the paper visited there and saw the massive excitement over the president with his own two eyes, and even called the state "Trumplandia."
'This time it's important to vote'
This week, I was in Pennsylvania, in the town Lititz, and I saw the thousands who came like fans to support the beloved president. I was also in Arizona this week, and there, too, fired-up crowds arrived to see the president. These are good Americans. Not a bunch of stupid racists, like they are portrayed in the establishment media.
And maybe because of the discrepancy between media coverage and what is happening on the ground, Trump will continue on for another four years. He is still seen as an outsider, anti-establishment candidate, one that connects to the locals and hasn't become a creature of Washington like Biden, who grew up in a working-class Pennsylvania town, but with time became part of the establishment.
Trump is still perceived as someone who is restoring America's greatness, and even managed to bend China to his will and strike a historic trade agreement, which was sadly forgotten amid the COVID fuss.
But on the other hand, there was the blue wave of 2018, which put the Democrats back in control of the House of Representatives, and a renewed wave of passion from the Democrats this year, too, which can be seen in the long lines at polling places that are already breaking records. So all the polls are confusing, and all the pollsters are being careful not to make predictions. Trump needs the vote of John, a Lutheran I met in Pennsylvania. John indeed voted for the president because he wants to stop the radical Left that has taken over the Democratic Party.
There is also the matter of voter fraud, which could wind up being the next big story, and could drag the election out until December. Mail-in voting is putting pressure on Trump, who is claiming that there is fraud, so it's possible that if widespread irregularities are discovered, states will decide on the winner not according to vote counts, but as they see fit, although this is an extreme scenario. In any case, everything is open until Dec. 14, when the electors vote.
"We don't always vote, but this time it's really important," a member of the devout Amish community in Pennsylvania tells me. True, I didn't see any Hispanics at the rally in Pennsylvania, or African-Americans, but this was in central Pennsylvania, home to rural, conservative communities.
In Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, Trump is pinning his hopes on the Hispanic community, which Biden is having trouble sweeping up, unlike Clinton four years ago. He was even forced to ask Barack Obama to campaign for him. Obama said at a rally in Florida that Trump was jealous of COVID for stealing the limelight. Maybe.
But in the end, the election is a referendum: pre-COVID Trump vs. COVID Trump. Next week, Americans will have to decide whether they regret how they voted four years ago, even though the decision was mostly to their benefit, or will punish the president for a pandemic that occurs once every 100 years and turned the entire world upside down.
