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Home News World News United States US Election Coverage

Predicting 'red wave,' Trump says 'real polls' have him in the lead

Trailing in the polls behind Joe Biden doesn't seem to be a concern for the president, who refuses to slow down on the campaign trail. "We are going to win a record share of Hispanic Americans, of African Americans, of Asian Americans. We're going to win a historic share of women [voters]," he tells a massive crowd in Arizona.

by  Boaz Bismuth
Published on  10-29-2020 12:00
Last modified: 10-29-2020 10:57
Predicting 'red wave,' Trump says 'real polls' have him in the leadAP/Evan Vucci

President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport, Oct. 28, 2020 (AP/Evan Vucci) | Photo: AP/Evan Vucci

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President Trump didn't originally plan to visit Arizona. He preferred to rally voters in Nevada, just across the border, because this year there's actually a sense it could be ready to turn red. Las Vegas and the other parts of the state are no longer Democratic strongholds – and four years ago, Trump almost finished the job there. 

However, Nevada's Democratic governor, who hates Trump, made things difficult for him because of the coronavirus, and the president was forced to visit neighboring Arizona instead. Bullhead City, where Trump held one of his rallies, lies on the border of the two states, helping him draw supporters from both.

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You need to see it to understand; you need to experience it to appreciate the phenomenon known as Donald Trump. His supporters arrive in their thousands to even the most obscure of locations to shower him with love, not support. "We love you," the audience shouted, with Trump wondering aloud if Ronald Reagan, "who I consider to be top-notch," ever had similar crowds or heard chants of "We love you." And that's all the difference. Trump's supporters admire him and appreciate him, and they are proud of their president, who predicted a "great red wave" come next Tuesday.

At the rally in Arizona, Trump accused the media of concealing information that contradicts the narrative that Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden is headed to victory. "The real numbers [show] we're substantially up. … We're one up in Wisconsin … But I get a poll, ABC, Washington Post, they're fakes. Trump 17 [points] down in Wisconsin. … We don't have freedom of the press. We have suppression of the press … They tried it last time, four years ago too, and that didn't work out too well. It's just unbelievable how dishonest the media is." The president told the crowd his campaign was in great shape in Florida and leading in Michigan.

The president addressed the rising morbidity figures in the US and declared that "a safe vaccine is coming very quickly. You're going to have it momentarily that eradicates the virus and we're rounding the turn regardless … You see what's happening in Europe, all over the world. Normal life will fully resume. … Next year will be the greatest economic year in the history of our country."

Commenting on Biden's remarks from their televised debate last week, when the Democratic presidential candidate declared his intention to cease subsidies for American energy industries, Trump said at the rally that Biden "wants to abolish a thing called American energy" and wants to get rid of fracking [hydraulic fracturing].

Trump emphasized that "this is the most important election in the history of our country. … This election is a choice between a Trump super-recovery and a Biden depression ... a Trump boom and a Biden lockdown." It is a choice, Trump concluded, "between the American dream and a socialist nightmare."

Supporters cheer during Vice President Mike Pence's speech at a campaign event for President Donald Trump on Oct. 28, 2020 in Flint, Mich. (AP/Nicole Hester via Ann Arbor News)

The president also took a jab at Biden, who mistakenly confused Trump with a former US president. "Hillary [Clinton] was a lot smarter than sleepy Joe," Trump needled. "They have a candidate they took off the stage yesterday. He called me George. He thought I was George Bush."

Trump also spoke directly to Hispanic voters, whose presence at the rally was considerable, telling them he is fighting for "safe neighborhoods and Hispanic-owned small businesses." He added: "We are going to win a record share of Hispanic Americans, of African Americans, of Asian Americans. We're going to win a historic share of women['s votes]."

Will the "blue wall" fall again?

Trump hopes that Arizona, together with North Carolina, Florida, and perhaps Nevada, as stated, will balance out a loss in one or more Midwestern states, where Biden is fighting hard. The polls show Biden in the lead in the Midwest, but four years ago, too, the polls said the Midwest was in Clinton's pocket – until the "blue wall" crumbled on election day and Trump emerged with his historic victory.

Generally speaking, it seems Trump will have to win every state he won four years ago, particularly North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. That is more than a few states.

Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate – who is encouraged by the fact that nearly 75 million Americans have already voted and that many of them are from Democratic districts in key states (alongside a large number of blacks and Hispanics) – believes he is managing to siphon votes from Trump. Which is why he allowed himself to visit the red state of Georgia this week. On Wednesday, he and his wife cast their ballots.

There's no doubt, however, that the coronavirus, which is smashing records in the United States, is stealing the show. Biden's rallies, similar to those he held in Georgia, are small, drive-in style. Trump, on the other hand, is holding gigantic rallies. What's amazing is how both sides are encroaching on the other's turf. The Democrats believe they will take Georgia – which they haven't done since 1992 – hence Biden's visit on Tuesday, and they are even campaigning in Texas with its 38 electoral votes (Biden's running-mate, Kamala Harris, will campaign there Friday after early voting turnouts in the state have already hit a record high).

Trump, for his part, is visiting areas historically considered blue (such as Nevada, and of course Pennsylvania and Michigan, which were part of that blue wall that fell four years ago).

The president woke up Wednesday morning in Nevada, traveled to Arizona and went to sleep in Florida. Even at 74 years old, he doesn't stop. His pace is hard to comprehend. He knows victory is far from assured, but Trump, like Trump, is optimistic and believes the Republicans and conservatives in America will seal the deal. To his mind, the polls always "miss" the true mood as it pertains to him because his supporters don't conform to classic voting patterns.

In the meantime, riots in Philadelphia continued for the second consecutive night after a young black man was shot and killed by police officers earlier this week. Trump responded to the events in Philadelphia and vowed to restore law and order. "We can't let this go on," he said, attacking Biden for possibly favoring police defunding. In doing so, he winked and nodded at suburban voters, similar to four years ago, seeking to convince them that Biden is beholden to the Black Lives Matter movement and the radicals in his party.

The secret weapon: Melania

Trump's campaign on Tuesday showcased Melania, his wife, who gave an impressive performance. She was able, for just a moment, to unite all of America behind her through the heartfelt speech she delivered in Pennsylvania as her husband was hosting a rally elsewhere.

Melania defended her husband against those who claim his coronavirus policies have harmed America. "We don't close down and hide in fear. We get to work to find real and lasting solutions," the first lady said.

She called herself a "worried mother and wife," and said she understands what Americans are feeling because she personally experienced the virus. "There are many people who have lost loved ones or know people who have been forever impacted by this silent enemy." She added and emphasized that the president "chooses to keep moving forward during this pandemic, not backward," and that imposing more lockdowns that will harm businesses was not the right path.

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Melania also didn't forget to take a swipe at her husband's rival, Biden, who she said "now suggest[s] that he could have done a better job. The American people can look at Joe Biden's 36 years in Congress and eight years in the vice presidency and determine whether they think he will finally be able to get something done for the American people." 

And although the first lady does "not always agree with the way [Trump] says things, it is important to him that he speaks directly to the people he serves."  

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