Some things just stay the same, even during a once-in-a-century pandemic.
The fact that Tennessee is a southern state that will give its electoral votes to the Republican candidate is one of the things that doesn't change.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
"Our color is red, and it will stay red, no matter what happens in the debate between our president, Trump, and the Democratic candidate, Biden," I am told by Josephine, a grandmother of eight who does not want to see America fall into the hands of the Democrats.
"Even if Trump's style goes a little too far," Josephine adds.
But Josephine says that Joe Biden was the right choice for the Democrats: "I hated Hillary [Clinton], but it's hard to hate Joe Biden."
And this is exactly the problem facing President Donald Trump: He was easily able to goad every Republican candidate in the 2016 primaries, and of course, Clinton, who was hated even by many in her own camp and insisted on "helping" him by the pathetic campaign she waged.
But Biden is different.
It might be the age, maybe the "Come on, man," that he repeats every time he speaks, or possibly the fact that he group up in working-class Scranton, Pennsylvania, and so is able to brand himself as one of those people who can talk to blue collar workers who are still considered a cornerstone of Trump's base.
Biden's success lies in that, unlike Clinton, he makes voters feel like they could share a beer. But that is also a disadvantage for him. He is too much a man of the people, and he doesn't have what Trump did in 2016: fire in his eyes.
If you ask 100 people why Biden is running for president, they'll find it hard to answer. Trump, on the other hand (at least in 2016), had a clear message: to make American great again, to change course from the way the Obama administration was ineffectual against enemies like Iran and ignored friends. Trump had the passion that is so lacking in Biden, but luckily for Biden, Trump doesn't have an impassioned message this year. Maybe in the debate (which will take place after this goes to press), Trump will manage to issue a catchy message that will give him momentum that will carry him through to election day. The two fateful weeks for the 45th president are also the two weeks in which voters "come home," and Trump is hoping that the real Biden will come out in the debate and frighten off Republicans disappointed in him. He hopes that we'll see Biden, once again, contradicting himself, and be unable to state his position on a given issue in under a minute.
It could be said that the 2020 election is more than an election for the torn soul of America. Voters long for a candidate who will take them into a time of safety and prosperity after COVID, and Trump is still seen as the better candidate to do that, given his proven success in improving the economy. But on the other hand, Biden is trying to convince voters that there is no way forward without going back to the time before Trump. This is doubtless the strangest election in history: the incumbent candidate isn't presenting any vision, and the challenger is espousing a vision from four years ago. No one is talking about the big ideas based on which America was founded and flourished. It's all about the here and now, and the person.
I started covering the election at the Democratic caucus in the freezing state of Iowa, in Des Moines, which is considered the most boring state capital in the US. That winter, Trump had a clear path to victory, both in Iowa and in other key states, because the economy was doing well. But the Democrats were going from bad to worse. Today, he has less wiggle room on his way to 270 electoral votes, because the swing states are leaning toward Biden, or at least a tie.
But although COVID has benefited the Democrats, Trump does not mean to give up. He is using every second to remind voters who really knows how to campaign. In the last few days, he is shifting gears, with Biden having gone "underground" to prepare for the debate. And while the polls are still stuck, recent weeks have seen subtle movement. There are signs of a shift in sides: while the Democratic candidate sounds like a broken record warning everyone about another Trump term in office, the 45th president is working the purple states, holding rally after rally. He is showing that he really wants to job, while Biden looks like someone who is just waiting for it to be over.
In 2016, the majority of white women voted for Trump, and was close to a majority among college-educated white women, amazing everyone who assumed that this sector was in Clinton's pocket.
He will have a hard time repeating that success this year, but he knows that again, suburban white women in swing states could make or break the election. So he is doing everything he can to win their trust. At one rally, he nearly begged, saying, "I saved your … neighborhood," referring to violent events of the protests over the police killing of George Floyd. "Will you please like me?" Trump told them, laughing, but also meaning it.
Trump can take comfort in gaining traction among Hispanic voters in states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida. Florida is no surprise, because Cuban voters have leaned Republican for years, but even Black voters – who are a significant segment of the voting population in swing states – are pulling closer to him, even though Biden is leading by a large margin with this demographic, pollster Nate Silver's site reported this week.
It appears as if Biden's biggest success thus far is in not collapsing against a candidate like Trump. Even the attacks on his son Hunter have not brought him down, even after suspicious emails were exposed that showed that Biden had used his contacts for his son's benefit and possibly help him earn huge sums of money. But we should not that even the alleged irregularities in Trump's tax returns that the New York Times exposed are of no interest to the voters. Ironically, elections have long since ceased to be about the candidates' past, and scandals that would once have ended a campaign are now barely blips on the radar. Today, people vote based on their gut feeling.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
The only ones that might still be voting based on candidates' qualifications and track records are older voters, who are showing signs of abandoning Trump over the COVID crisis. This could cost him in Florida, and maybe even the presidency.
But alongside all the polls, there is the possibility that – like in 2016 – many voters will prefer not to disclose that they voted for Trump, and also that Florida might cause some headaches before its electoral winner is declared. Even after that, the losing side might turn to the court.
In the extreme scenario, if the Florida situation is so complicated, its state legislature could announce that it does not accept the voters' decision or vote count for various and sundry reasons, and award the state's electoral votes as it sees fit. In that case, the ruling party will decide the winner. The possibility of going around the election exists not only in Florida, but in every US state. The Constitution allows it –states have the full freedom of action for states to decide their electoral delegates, who are effectively the ones who pick the president, on Dec. 14. In other words, the real election is in December, and only then will we be able to say who has won.
And if all that potential chaos weren't enough, the FBI revealed just before the debate that Russia is actively trying to undermine the democratic process, and even Iran is sticking its nose in, trying to bring down Trump. That only shows how scared Tehran is of a second Trump term. At least he has already won a victory against the ayatollahs.
It was interesting follow events in Tennessee, the land of Jack Daniels whisky, Dolly Parton, and Davey Crockett – all American icons. Nashville itself is blue, Democrat. Music City likes young people, and there are a lot of Black Lives Matter signs here. You hardly see any Trump signs.
"You find Trump signs in the suburbs, not in the cities," Brian Ambrose, 51 – originally from Pittsburgh – explains.
"I'm voting for Trump," Brian says, standing beside a sign that bears the slogan "Keeping America Great" – an updated version of Trump's winning slogan from four years ago.
Brian used to work at Disney World in Florida and now works as a limousine driver.
"Trump will win," he decrees. When I point out that the media and the polls are pointing to a Biden victory, he replies, "What do you believe them for? They want Biden, but the majority want Trump."
The suburb in which Brian lives is considered Republican but many of its residents are originally from California, New York, and Chicago who moved here because homes are cheaper and taxes are lower.
"They are fleeing from blue states to red ones, but they still vote for blue candidates," Brian says bitterly, and somewhat in wonder.
Like Nashville and its suburbs, America itself is divided. "We've never been so divided," Brian says. "Half of America is red and half is blue, and the media and social media divide us instead of uniting us. The American media and social media have a major role in the divide we have here," he says.
Incidentally, Brian is less worried about COVID now because he has already had it. I tell him that there is a lot of criticism of how Trump has handled the epidemic in the US.
"See, the media has you fooled, too. It isn't Trump's fault. COVID is China, and China is Biden, and that's one of the reasons why I'm voting for Trump."
After talking to Brian, I think it might be possible to relax a bit, go into a local bar and hear some good country music while enjoying a Jack Daniels. But in the 2020 election, even that can't happen, because of COVID.
By 2024, this too shall pass.
