Nashville, Tennessee – Less than 24 hours before the second presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee, there's just one thing on everyone's mind: What will happen the day after. The debate itself, certainly its content, isn't particularly interesting anymore. Because what can the candidates say that we haven't already heard? This year, more than ever, the atmosphere, momentum and energy projected by the candidates will set the tone for the critical two-week home-stretch before election day on Nov. 3.
The last two weeks are always when the most attentive and inquisitive voters, who are also the most sensitive to any development (for example, former FBI chief James Comey's letter about his agency's Hillary Clinton investigation, which turned the tables prior to the 2016 election), come into play. While the polls (still) show Biden in the lead, prominent pollster Nate Silver on Wednesday published a surprising article: Trump is gaining momentum among blacks and Hispanics.
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This is another indication that despite the president's relatively disheveled campaign, the Republican party over the past four years has run an impressive organizational campaign that is now bearing fruit: Starting with Florida, where Trump holds the advantage among Cuban immigrants who could decide the election, to voter targeting and even yard signs (which shouldn't be discounted and where Trump, incidentally, is far ahead of Biden).
How appropriate that the Commission on Presidential Debates chose Nashville to host the debate and provide the final note to this chaotic election race. Nashville is also the home city of Andrew Jackson, the first populist president who fought for disenfranchised citizens left behind, who was elected president after a turbulent election campaign that resulted in an equally turbulent presidency.
To a large extent, Trump sees himself as the modern-day Andrew Jackson, at least in terms of fighting for the "common man." Jackson created a new era in American politics, social change that molded the character of America for a long period of time whereby many voiceless citizens – for example, non-land owners – finally received political representation. American industry also became less dependent on European imports at the time. And most importantly from Trump's perspective – Jackson served two terms.
Israel Hayom's Editor-in-Chief Boaz Bismuth in Nashville, Tennessee
The debate in Nashville on Thursday night is between Trump and Biden, but the election is between Trump and Trump. Between the new and vibrant Trump of 2016, and the Trump of 2020 who is on the defensive. In 2016, Trump was lucky to have faced a candidate who helped him win: She made mistake after mistake and exhibited an off-putting coldness toward the common man. Trump in 2020 still hasn't found an effective and consistent message, and cannot rely on Biden's gaffes because the voters are apathetic to the Democratic candidate, for better or for worse.
Trump hopes to reinvent himself in Nashville. His advisers have even said he will let Biden speak a lot, relatively, and by doing so perhaps force Americans to reconsider whether the lethargic, spiritless Biden is the person they want as their president. This is a gamble, but it's the only card left to play in this debate.
Biden, for his part, hopes Nashville is kinder to him than it was to another vice president: Al Gore, in 2000. While everyone remembers the endless vote count in Florida that year, many forget that Gore could have won without Florida had he only done what every political candidate needs to do: Win at home. If Gore had won in greater Nashville, in his state of Tennessee, he would have had enough electoral votes to be president.
Biden isn't from Tennessee, and therefore has no chance of winning the southern state that the Republicans have controlled for years. He does hope, however, that Tennessee, which ended Gore's career, gives him a final push and even just an ounce of the energy sorely lacking throughout his campaign (and not just because he has avoided public rallies and television appearances). He at least hopes his appearance at the final debate turns the positive poll numbers into real momentum, which is absolutely critical for anyone who wants to defeat a sitting president.
The people are excited
Trump is coming to Nashville with one hope: to reboot his campaign and leave the city with a catchy and persuasive soundbyte that allows the apathetic voters in his camp, and mainly those who are disappointed in him, to nod in agreement. His success in 2016 wasn't necessarily due to swaying undecided voters, but because he managed to allay the concerns of the Republican skeptics. In the two weeks before the 2016 election, he was able to "bring back home" millions of right-wing voters. If he presents an optimistic vision, he could negate the last card Biden is playing – a yearn for change.
The coronavirus, which affects every aspect of our lives, including the debate and journalists such as myself who are covering it (anyone entering Belmont University, the site of the debate, is tested), hasn't stymied the enthusiasm of the people ahead of the election. The 40 million Americans who have already voted are a testament to this. Partial information indicates that most of them are Democrats, but this doesn't mean much because Republicans tend to vote in person on election day. Furthermore, in the key state of Florida, the early votes appear to have both camps neck and neck.
Fox News on Wednesday released a poll showing that over 60% of Trump supporters in New Hampshire won't place yard signs in front of their homes or bumper stickers on their cars in support of Trump because they're afraid of being harassed. Just 38% of Biden supporters in the state answered similarly, according to the poll.
The gaps are dwindling
A new poll released by IBD/TIPP, which successfully predicted Trump's victory in 2016, indicates the president is closing the gap. Biden's large lead among seniors and suburban voters continues to slip. Perhaps the tide won't turn in Trump's favor quite as it did in 2016, but the race is still open.
And we must bear in mind that US voters don't like removing a president who benefited them. Particularly those who vote with their pockets, who saw their pension savings increase under Trump. Not to mention the fact that according to another prominent pollster, many Republicans, similar to 2016, are still afraid to openly say they support Trump.
If Trump runs an effective campaign he will bring the voters from 2016 back home. What's more, a Gallup poll earlier this month showed that most Americans believe he will win, including 56% of independent voters, who are the most crucial. This means that although many people are perhaps angry with Trump – because of the coronavirus, because he is provocative, and because he isn't as exhilarating as in 2016 – still aren't disqualifying him and are willing to give him a chance if he proves himelf over the next two weeks.
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