According to US Census data, over 3 million US residents are "Russian-Americans," but they are not a minority that can be easily characterized. Russian immigrants in the US are from different ethnic backgrounds and religions, including Muslims from former Soviet republics in central Asia and some have been in the US for much longer than others. There are the immigrants who arrived in the 1970s, their US-born children, and recent arrivals. There is only one thing that unites them all – either they or their parents were born in the former USSR, and thus they speak Russian.
Dr. Samuel Kliger, director of Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the American Jewish Committee, explains that Russian Jews comprise "the core of Russian immigration to America."
"They [Jews] make up 35-40%, but they have been here the longest and are the strongest and most influential, and the rest of the Russian-speaking immigrants gather around them, learn from them, and take in their political views," Kliger says.
Kliger is also founder and president of the Research Institute for New Americans and tracks voting patterns among Russian Americans.
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"My research shows that in the past 20 years, at least 70-75%, sometimes 80%, of this group vote for the Republican candidate, which is the complete opposite of how non-Russian speaking Jewish Americans tend to vote. We'll see the same thing this time, too."
Alec Brook-Krasny, who immigrated to the US from Moscow in 1989 and spent nine years in the lower house of the New York State Assembly, says the same. When he was elected in 2007, he became the first Soviet immigrant politician to be elected to such a key role. Although he is a member of the Democratic Party, Brook-Krasny has no doubt about the preference of voters from his community.
"There are three reasons why Russian Americans support [President] Trump," he says. "First, there is his strong stance in support of Israel. I am not a great admirer of Trump as a person, but what he, his family, and his advisors are doing for Israel is more important to me."
Two other factors that push Russian Americans to back Trump are their dissatisfaction with the protests by Black Americans and their loathing of anything that carries a whiff of socialism.
"Russian speakers think that the wave of protests that has erupted in cities across the US should be stopped, and only a president who represents values of law and order, as Trump does in their eyes, will do that. The growing strength of the far-left wing of the Democratic Party, and the stronger voices there, frighten immigrants from the former USSR and run them off," he observes.
Tipping the scales
Are Russian Americans an additional power base for the Republican camp? Given the electoral process in the US, that's not an easy question to answer. On one hand, Russian Americans are scattered throughout the various states, and have especially large communities in New York and California – both blue states where there won't be much of a fight, with Democratic candidates almost guaranteed victory. This should mark the end of their electoral influence.
But there is another side to the coin: There are sizable communities of Russian speakers in a few swing states, where every vote matters.
"In the past decade, the Russian-speaking population has grown rapidly in Florida. I'm convinced that contributed to Republican victories there – for the president in 2016, for the gubernatorial election, and for the midterm election in 2018," Kliger said. "It is certainly possible that Russian speakers' votes will determine the election this time, too."
And it's not just Florida and Pennsylvania. The considerable numbers of Russian American voters in Cleveland and Cincinnati could affect the results in Ohio, where the battle between Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is expected to be close. Another key city is Denver, the biggest city in Colorado, which is home to plenty of immigrants from the FSU. The Russian American population is growing in North Carolina, too, which could influence voting there come November.
As if that weren't enough, a few predictions in recent months have said that the race-based protests could turn New York itself into a swing state this time around. "There's not much chance of that," Kliger says, "But if it happens, Russian speaking voters will be a major factor in the change."
Nevertheless, astonishingly enough, neither candidate is investing much effort in courting the Russian vote. Kliger says that's because the Russian speakers' political leaning is clear, and well-known: Republicans think they're already in their pocket, and the Democrats saw them as a lost cause from the start.
Past results would seem to justify that approach. In 2012, for example, under 2.5% of Russian-speaking Jewish voters in New York were registered as Democrats, and twice as many Russian-speaking Jews were registered as Republicans than non-Russian speaking Jews in New York. Within the parties, too, Russian speakers lean to the Right. In the Democratic primaries, immigrants from the FSU preferred Hillary Clinton rather than Bernie Sanders, and in the Republican primaries most supported Trump. At the Republican Party branch office in Brighton Beach, Brooklyn, which is known as "Little Odessa," Trump won 84% of the vote.
The influence of the schools
In the reality of a divided America that is at bitter war with itself, small groups – ones that might not necessarily attract attention – can decide who will become president. In the current situation, the small minority of Russian speakers in the US could have far-reaching implications. If Trump manages to drive his opponent into a close battle in key states, it's not inconceivable that the Russian vote will sway the election.
However, Kliger thinks that younger Russian Americans are more supportive of the Democrats.
"A lot of the young people are being brainwashed at college. They don't really know what they want, and certainly don't understand where their parents came from and what they went through. Sometimes the inter-generational rift splits families apart. My family is a good example: my older son is leaning toward voting for Biden, and the rest of the family support Trump," he says.
This trend among the young Russian Americans appears likely to cancel any possibility of Russian-speaking Jews balancing the established Jewish community's bias toward liberal views. Russian speakers might account for about one-sixth of American Jews, but their values don't set the public tone of American Jewry.
Q: Do the leanings of the younger generation herald the disappearance of the Russian-speaking Jewish community in America, and its unique voting pattern?
"I think that's the way things are headed. The members of the community who were born in the US or came here as small children see American society through the lens of the worldview forced on them in schools. They are inculcated with values that go against the traditional mentality of Russian-speaking Jews. At best, these young people will be neutral.
"In the last election, I focused my studies on how the 18-30 age group among Russian-speaking Americans voted, and I saw that they split almost 50:50. This time, I expect that Biden will have the edge among this group."
Q: Immigrants from the former Soviet Union are very involved in American politics as voters. Why can't they create political representation at the state or federal level?
"Their time will come. If the US voted for party lists, I'm sure that we already could have seen a few Russian-speaking congressional representatives. The division into voting districts, which is done intentionally by local political leaders with vested interest, takes most of the power away from Russian Americans. The huge concentration of Russian speakers in south Brooklyn isn't reflected because it is split between three different districts.
"As a result, Russian speaking Jews in that area can't unite behind a candidate of their choice, like Black or Italian voters in those districts do."
In the meantime, Brook-Krasny is one of the only members of the Russian American community to break the political glass ceiling for immigrants from the FSU. There was also David Storobin, who served in the New York State Senate.
"In my district there were twice as many African Americans as immigrants from the FSU, and to win the primaries I enlisted the support of members of other communities in addition to my natural base of support," he explains.
"In addition, I explain to Russian speakers, who mostly support the Republicans, that it's important for them to register as Democrats and win the right to vote in the Democratic primaries in order to influence the choice of candidate and block the radical Left," he adds.
Either way, the political power of immigrants from the FSU is far from being fully realized, and Brook-Krasny, the founder of the Council of Jewish Émigré Community Organizations (an umbrella organization that united nearly 50 Russian-speaking groups), understands that. He is already planning to run for the New York City Council, and in that campaign, the Russian-speaking vote will certainly play a major role.
"They could serve as a counter-weight against the trend of radicalization in the Democratic Party, especially if they understand the rules of the game in the city and register as Democrats. That's the only way. In north Brooklyn, candidates from the radical socialist wing, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, regularly win, and that's the way things are going. If Russian speakers flock to the intra-party arena, it might save us from sliding to the Left," he says.
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