It's the same, tired old story: Hamas carries out terrorist acts against the residents of the western Negev so they will pressure the Israeli government to find a solution, which is to send money and projects to Gaza in order to mollify Hamas into stopping its terror campaigns.
This has been Hamas' tactic since the violent events on the border began in 2018. After failing in all its attempts since Operation Protective Edge in 2014 to convince Arab and western states to help the impoverished, battered Gaza Strip, Hamas moved on to extortion: putting pressure on Israel.
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That method has worked well for the past two and a half years. Both the protests and the balloons (both incendiary and equipped with explosives) that came after them prompted the Israeli government to broker the deal for Qatar to send Gaza monthly infusions of cash. At first, it was $5 million, then $10 million, and now it's $30 million every month. Supposedly, it is earmarked for the poor, but it actually goes to oil the wheels of the enormous machine Hamas has built in Gaza, and some of it – despite what the donors intended – also goes toward terrorism.
But this monthly aid is supposed to end in September. The money for August has already been transferred, and no one knows what will happen next. Will the money keep flowing, and if it does – for how long? Hamas is worried that it will be left without what is nearly the only assistance it receives and has resumed harassing Israel in order to get it to solve the problem. Money is the main issue on the table, but not the only one. There are also a series of infrastructure projects that are very important to Hamas (they range from an industrial zone to an electricity grid), and which Hamas says are being unreasonably delayed. Likewise, the organization hopes that what months of talks for a long-term arrangement couldn't accomplish, some fraught days of arson balloons and ensuing wildfires will. And if that doesn't help, Hamas will go back to its nightly disturbances … setting off explosions near western Negev communities to wake up and shake up the residents. It might also reinstate the Friday border protests.
Hamas is also applying more pressure because of the coronavirus crisis. Not only have they lost the ear of the international community, but the 7,000 Gazans who have visas to work in Israel are stuck in Gaza. Israel would be willing to let them in, but Hamas is worried that they will contract the virus and bring it back, causing a mass outbreak. The decision is understandable from a medical perspective, but it carries difficult financial ramifications. Less money is coming into Gaza, and many residents have been left without a livelihood.
All this can teach us a few things. First, Hamas is in real financial trouble, verging on desperation. Second, Hamas is fully in control of Gaza and what happens there, whether it wants terrorism or wants to stop it. Third, Hamas does not want an escalation or a war – it wants a solution, and the steps it is taking are carefully calculated to avoid Israeli casualties. The organization thinks Israel can "live with them."
Israel understands that and is therefore responding in kind. The airstrikes in the past few days were mainly intended as a signal and a deterrent. Tuesday's step of closing the Kerem Shalom cargo crossing is a more serious one, and it puts real pressure on Hamas in terms of the most sensitive issue for it – the continuance of ordinary routine in Gaza. If the arson balloons continue, we will probably see additional steps from Israel, but ones that will ensure that the situation does not deteriorate. The rhetoric voiced by Israel's political and defense leadership on Tuesday was tough, and backed up by fighter jets and missile ships, but no one in the Israeli government wants an escalation with Gaza.
The opposite: attempts were being made late Tuesday to help Hamas out of the corner into which it has backed itself, and restore calm to the western Negev. But something could still go wrong. If one fire gets out of control and harms Israelis, or an Israeli response causes unplanned damage in Gaza, it could lead to a retaliation. At the end of the day, everyone is playing with fire, and they could get burned.
In an attempt to avoid that, Israel and Hamas are trying to be more careful. But even if they succeed, it would only be a temporary victory. Gaza's problems run too deep to solve them one by one. In the absence of a major strategic move that would entail either a broad agreement or a massive military action, nothing will really be solved, and sooner or later, we'll see a revival of the same old show.
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