Kan 11's spy series Tehran enthralled Israeli viewers from the first episode, which aired in June. In the series, Iranian-born Israeli agent Tamar Rabinyan is sent to Tehran to disable Iran's nuclear reactor, and finds herself being hunted by the Revolutionary Guards. With the season over, Israel Hayom talks to Sima Shine, former head of the Mossad's Research Division and currently a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Q: You were sent into a similar situation.
"I was on assignment, of course, in a country with which we don't have diplomatic relations, but with the knowledge and assent of the local government, which of course is different from the situation in the series. It was a strange feeling. I flew somewhere that in other circumstances I wouldn't, and obviously, I couldn't speak Hebrew. I didn't say a word the entire flight, and sometimes I preferred to pretend I was sleeping. When I saw what countries we were flying over, it was stressful."
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Q: And in the country itself?
"The clothes were different, but I was surprised to find out that the conversations I had there, in terms of the level and type of conversation, were completely regular, much like conversations I had elsewhere in the world."
Q: That's a little different from what we see in films.
"I always say that for us, reality exceeds what we can imagine, either way."
Q: Recently, we've seen explosions and fires at sensitive sites in Iran. People are saying the damage caused to their centrifuges will hold up Iran's nuclear program for one to two years.
"The attack on the advanced centrifuges is delaying the modernization of its nuclear program. It is delaying their ability to move on to a new generation of centrifuges, which use a smaller number of centrifuges to enrich a larger quantity of uranium. But the Iranian nuclear program is still progressing, and even with their older IR1 centrifuges, they can make a nuclear bomb. The moment Iran violated the 2015 nuclear deal they decided to move ahead as fast as their technological capabilities would let them, and sped up their research and development of new centrifuges, but now… there has been a major and unexpected delay in the plans."
Q: Is this delay caused by extreme climate conditions and worn-out infrastructure, or sabotage?
"Some of the failures occurred because of low-quality infrastructure and maintenance, and I think that most of the recent explosions were indeed technical failures because of material fatigue. What is clear is that the explosion at Natanz was not the result of an error. More than that -- the Iranians themselves admitted that they knew how it was perpetrated, and even published the name of the main suspect. But no official entity uttered the word 'Israel.'"
Q: That has significance.
"I assume the Iranians think it was Israel, but don't know whether or not the US played a part, too. Their silence allows them to be flexible about a future response. If it was a joint Israeli-US action, the Iranians will take into account that the response to any action on their part could also be a joint one."
Q: From your experience in the Mossad, how complicated is it to bring explosives into such a sensitive nuclear facility?
"It's very complicated. Operationally, it's a very impressive event. And along with the research for the operation, there needs to be research that shows the agents where to go -- what will cause major damage, where the weak points are, similar to what we saw in the nuclear archive operation. There, along with the heroics, the most fruitful part of the operation was extracting meaning from the material and bringing it to the decision-makers. As far as I know, the most complicated thing was moving the information out of Iran, which was a real story."
Q: Can we expect Iran to respond to the Natanz incident?
"It needs to consider the matter and make a decision. I assume that in discussions in Tehran, there is a majority in favor of a response, in order to maintain deterrence and retaliate."
Q: You're saying they are considering. That's not typical.
"Unlike other dictatorships, Iran holds discussions. There is teamwork. And yes, in Iran they make rational decisions." Their rationale might be different from ours, but there is a rationale."
Q: What are the possibilities for a response?
"Their response could be nuclear, such as enriching uranium to 20%, like they did before the nuclear deal, which would put a lot of pressure on Israel, but they wouldn't expect any retaliation. Another option would be a cyberattack. Iran tested that technique with an attack on Israel's water facilities, which failed."
"Another way in which they could respond is through terrorist attacks against Israeli or Jewish targets abroad. The Iranians could also respond to Israel from Iraq or Yemen, and there are missiles that can reach Israel from Yemen. That would be the act most likely to cause escalation, and Iran would need to prepare for a harsh reaction. Remember, Iraq is Iran's most important asset and it will be careful not to damage it. Iran's desire to ensure its influence in Iraq supersedes any other defense consideration."
Q: There is also Hezbollah. Iranian support for Hezbollah has dropped because of the economic distress in Iran. Does that reduce the likelihood of escalation?
"The main limitation on Hezbollah is what is happening in Lebanon itself, much more than the funds from Iran. Given the riots in Lebanon, there is a sense that everything there is unstable, and in the past few months we are also seeing an outcry against Hezbollah. The Lebanese public understands that the country isn't receiving international aid from the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank because Hezbollah is indirectly running the country, and has representatives in the government. The Lebanese people are realizing that Hezbollah is a burden, not an asset."
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Q: Does it want war?
"A war right now would be catastrophic for Hezbollah. Some say that if there are problems at home, we'll direct attention abroad. I don't think that's the correct view. And if Hezbollah makes a military move that kills Israelis, it has to take into account that Israel will respond powerfully against the Shiite population and possibly Lebanese national infrastructure. It should think about the day after."
Q: How do you explain the fact that many nuclear nations achieved nuclear capabilities in 10 years at the most, while Iran has been struggling to nuclearize for 30 years?
"Iran is taking the most cautious path to a nuclear bomb, not the fastest one. That is the main characteristic of Iranian policy in the past few decades. The regime is the most important thing, and what something threatens it, they take a step back. Of course, there are moves, both secret and open, and cause delays."
Q: You've said in the past that a nuclearized Iran is not an existential threat to Israel.
"I think Iran must be stopped from developing a nuclear bomb, which is the biggest strategic threat. Not an existential one, in the sense that I am not willing to give any outside entity the ability to threaten my existence. Iran should be worried about its own existence if it has a bomb, not the opposite."
"And yes, Iran can be prevented from developing a bomb, and that is happening in the right way, even if it's slow and Sisyphean. What bothers me is that they will make the breakthrough that will allow them to develop a bomb. I hope that in that situation, there will be an American administration that would attack, and Israel won't have to do it on its own."
Q: Did the killing of former Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani ease your mind?
"It's good he's no longer with us. But anyone who hopes that Iran's regional policies will be hurt by his death is wrong."
Q: What is the national mood in Iran? Reports talk about depression and desperation.
"That's correct. It's a long process that began before the coronavirus pandemic. For years, the situation in Iran has been bad, and it's getting worse. The economic situation has gotten worse since [US President] Trump reinstated sanctions. The Iranian currency has crashed, there is unusually high unemployment, especially among young and educated people, which is leading to a brain drain. For its size, Iran is considered the country with the biggest brain drain in the world. The Iranians need to create a million new jobs per year, and there's no way they are capable of doing that."
"Drug use is also widespread, and the level of corruption is one of the highest in the world … There are serious problems in nearly every field. Forty-one years of the Islamic Republic have caused major damage to an impressive nation."
Q: Is the public sick of the religious regime?
"Definitely. We are seeing a dramatic drop in the number of people who visit mosques, religious officials complaining about being cursed in the streets and feeling that they are in danger. The public is tired of the regime, but -- and this is a big 'but' -- even though there is opposition and demonstrations, there is no organized opposition, whereas the regime is very well-organized, and has learned to cope with the protests. There is a willingness to kill [demonstrators] because they realize that these protests could escalate."
Q: We're seeing new things at these protests.
"Alongside demands about the economy, there are calls like 'Death to the dictator' and 'Kill the Islamic Republic.' [Ayatollah] Khamenei is consumed, day and night, with how to guarantee the future of the republic. There is loathing for the regime, which has spread throughout almost all parts of the population, but there is no alternative leadership, and the public is afraid of chaos. I would be happy if I could say that we were close to a regime change in Iran, but we're most likely far from that."
Q: The Iranian presidential elections next May or June won't lead to anything important?
"Today, the Iranian parliament is conservative and radical. You need to remember that other than actually casting a ballot, there is nothing free about the elections. Especially not the list of candidates, which is selected by the leader."
Q; What about the US election in November?
"If Joe Biden is elected, it's possible that dialogue between the US and Iran will begin, and if that happens, it's reasonable that Khamenei would want to please a president who is more able to talk to the people. But on the whole, the Iranians say that it doesn't matter who is elected, because the Americans are 'evil' and cannot be trusted. That is Khamenei's stance, and he repeatedly says that the Americans want a regime change in Iran, for the Islamic Republic to vanish."
Q: Is it possible they're working secretly to topple the regime?
"I think not. In the four years under Trump, the efficacy of sanctions was overrated, with the expectation that they would force Iran to negotiate for a better nuclear agreement, or create enough economic pressure to bring down the regime. But neither of these things happened. I don't think that they are doing anything proactive, like helping opposition officials, and even if they are, it's probably on a small scale. To tell you the truth, I don't think that something so significant can come from outside. There is no meaning to foreign opposition. The people have to want it, to take to the streets and be willing to risk their lives. This is a regime that doesn't care about the methods it uses, and if it's scared, will only use more force. But I think that in the end, it will fall."
Q: Could coronavirus be a catalyst for that?
"I don't think so. Paradoxically, coronavirus has strengthened the image of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has proven itself in helping the people. But it [corona] has deepened the economic crisis and exposed a lot of the regime's defects. The regime tried to exploit the crisis in two directions. First, to take very large loans. Among other things, it asked for $5 billion from the International Monetary Fund. Second, it tried to pressure the US to lift the sanctions, which are hurting its ability to deal with coronavirus. But the Americans didn't give in."
Q: So this is why the Iranians leaked parts of their deal with China.
"In that leak to the New York Times, the Iranians tried to tell the Trump administration that it couldn't defeat them economically. According to the deal with China, which hasn't been signed, the Chinese are supposed to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Iran over 25 years."
Q: That would be a game-changer.
"Right. Luckily for the Iranians, US-Chinese relations are bad, and China is motivated to get revenge against the Americans anywhere it can. Iran is one of the ways it's doing that."
Q: To revisit the start of our conversation, when you discussed your visit to a country with which Israel doesn't have relations, it seems as if our countries have things in common."
"In some of those countries, there are common interests and points of similarity. That makes me think about where Israel could be in a different position. In some Sunni Arab states they very much want to develop relations with Israel, and that has great potential. The more accepted we are in the Middle East, the better our future will be. Back then, on that visit, I said to myself, we can talk to these people, there's no deep-seated hatred that can't be overcome."
