As the sticking point of the state budget drives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Benny Gantz toward another election, a new poll conducted by Israel Hayom and the Maagar Hamohot Institute indicates that if an election were held today, Netanyahu would win, and would have the possibility of building a narrow right-wing government.
The poll was conducted among 505 adults from a representative sample of the Israeli population and had a margin of error of 4.4%.
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According to the poll, the Likud would secure 33 seats, followed by Yesh Atid-Telem, which was projected to win 17 seats. Blue and White was projected to win 12 seats, as was Yamina.
The poll predicted 16 seats for the Joint Arab list.
When it came to the Haredi parties, the poll predicted nine and eight seats for Shas and United Torah Judaism, respectively. Yisrael Beytenu would win only eight seats, the poll showed.
The poll projected the Labor party, Derech Eretz, and Gesher all hovering near the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%.
Seven percent of respondents who voted for the Likud in the last election said they would vote for Yamina, and 34% of respondents who voted for Blue and White said they would support Yesh Atid-Telem.
Respondents were also asked who they thought was best suited to serve as prime minister right now. Despite the wave of protests, Netanyahu was the most popular choice, with 33% of respondents saying he was the best choice for prime minister. Another 13% said Yair Lapid was the best candidate; 12% said Naftali Bennett was the best choice for the job, and 11% picked Gantz. Nearly one-third (31%) did not know who was best suited for the job of prime minister, or named other officials.
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The poll also asked respondents what they believed was the reason for the protests being held outside the Prime Minister's Residence in Jerusalem and other locations nationwide. Only 19% said the demonstrations were a response to the economic fallout of the coronavirus crisis.
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Twenty-six percent said that the demonstrations were an expression of opposition to the prime minister. Nearly half (49%) of respondents said they thought that both economic distress and opposition to Netanyahu were the motivation for the protests.
Respondents did not agree with the protesters' claim that the protesters are non-violent, but did agree that the police were treating the demonstrators too harshly. Over half (52%) of respondents characterized protesters' behavior as "violent" or "very violent," compared to 27% who said that the protests were balanced. Only 12% of respondents described them as "quiet" or "very quiet." An analysis of the responses showed that the more right-wing respondents were, the more they were likely to characterize the protests as violent.
When it came to the conduct of the police, respondents appeared to sympathize with the protesters, with 44% saying that the police were reacting too violently. Another 30% said that the police responses were appropriate and only 12% saying that the police were too easy on the protesters.
