A Foreign Ministry document assessing the situation in the world once the coronavirus pandemic is past raises some chilling predictions, as well as an optimistic element: according to the Foreign Ministry, Israel could continue to strengthen its international standing and relations.
A group of over 20 Israeli diplomats and experts worked on the document, which was compiled last month. Oren Anolik, head of the ministry's bureau of Policy Planning, led the project and submitted the paper to Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Foreign Ministry Director Yuval Rotem.
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Anolik told Israel Hayom that the assessment could not be considered a "prediction," as the corona pandemic was still unfolding.
"Things change every day, and it's important that I say that we don't know what the future will hold… there are more questions than answers," he said.
The document is based on the fundamental idea that the global, free-trade village will not survive the pandemic.
The document notes that the world is heading toward an economic crisis that will be reminiscent of the Great Depression, and the global GNP has already dropped by 12%. The economic crisis could lead to a lower demand for natural gas, which would comprise a serious blow to the export sector on which Israel was planning to lean in the next few years.
The economic crisis, experts say, will lead to more intense competition between countries, particularly for healthcare-related items. The global demand for healthcare equipment, which has reared its head as a result of coronavirus, is likely to continue and could become a source of international tension.
The Foreign Ministry expects the combination of that tension and international economic distress, as well as a grounded aviation industry, to create "new rules" about international trade. According to the document, international trade will change, with nations pulling up the drawbridge and re-creating their own manufacturing and supply chains, particularly in areas critical to national security, despite the costs it would entail.
It is possible, the ministry thinks, that countries will take steps to limit export of vital goods like medical equipment by instating tariffs and other restrictions.
According to the ministry, the corona crisis is also a catalyst for China's rise as a world superpower. Although China "exported" the virus, it was the first nation to recover from it, putting it at an advantage over the US. The international aid China has extended to countries suffering from coronavirus outbreaks, combined with the US disinclination to act as the world's policeman, are giving China a boost.
The Foreign Ministry warns that this change in the Chinese-American balance of power could further increase the tension between the two nations, and recommends that Israel continue to make its "special relationship" with the US a top diplomatic priority, which taking advantage of economic and other opportunities with China.
Turning to the already turbulent Middle East, the document warns that Israel's peaceful neighbors, Jordan, could suffer destabilization. The document also noted the concern that Iran – where corona is decimating what was left of the economy – could rush into making nuclear weapons to keep the regime in place.
The document also touched on the concern that the global crisis will grow the ranks of terrorist organizations like the Islamic State or al-Qaida.
However, there were some bright spots in the report. The ministry expects to see an increase in global demand for high-tech products, particularly in the field of remote management and remote surveillance. This could be a boon to Israel, with its well-developed high-tech sector. The flexibility of the Israeli market, and it its ability to adapt to new situations, were also cited as advantages. Israel's use of mega-data and its use of technology to battle the corona epidemic without serious violations of individual liberties, could make Israel an attractive prospect, the ministry said.
