For a long time now, even before the coronavirus outbreak, Israel has been mired in a type of slumber, the direct result of the political deadlock. The rest of the world, however, and certainly our neighbors around us, have kept on going, rendering Israel a mere bystander in the face of dramatic developments that could have a profound impact on us, too.
Two of these developments are intertwined. One is the Trump administration's peace deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the second is Turkey's increasing involvement in the Syrian quagmire, to the point where the Turkish army has clashed with Syrian soldiers, along with fighters from Iran and Hezbollah.
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Their common thread is obvious. They are both dangerous from Iran's perspective and could jeopardize the regime if anyone were able to tie the strings together and lead an international and regional campaign against it.
The peace deal between Washington and the Taliban, which is supposed to end years of fighting along with the American presence in Afghanistan, is an important achievement for the Trump administration. The Americans, as we know, didn't invade that country to rule it, but to neutralize the threat it posed to the world. The Taliban regime, of course, helped al-Qaida carry out the terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001.
Two decades later, the Taliban is waving a white flag. It is prepared to revoke its terrorist policies and has even expressed hope for cooperation with the US. This is happening in large part due to American determination and steadfastness in the face of battlefield casualties, and also in the face of the American public's increasing demands for a withdrawal from Afghanistan before the job was completed.
The big loser in this equation is Iran: The Taliban views the ayatollah regime as a bitter and dangerous enemy, both from an ideological and religious standpoint. When Afghanistan gets back on its feet, it could become an important link in the global front tightening the noose on Tehran. Another conflict making Iran sweat erupted in northern Syria a few weeks ago. This region is the last remaining rebel-held enclave in the war-torn country, in large part thanks to Turkish support.
Two years ago, Turkey, Iran and Russia reached an understanding, with American help, whereby northern Syria would be a safe zone barring entry to Bashar Assad's army. But, as we are all aware, in the Middle East agreements are for the weak; the strong don't tend to honor them. Thus, Assad and his allies, undoubtedly with a push from Moscow, attacked the rebels in the north, killing dozens of Turkish soldiers in the process.
This time, Erdogan refused to ignore the situation and ordered his army to advance deeper into the Syrian territory. The Turkish move exposed what we've all know for a while: Assad's forces are exhausted and ineffective, and therefore completely dependent on Iranian help, which is now aimed against Turkey. Meanwhile, Moscow's power also has its limits, and the fact is that this time, too, it rushed to cobble together a ceasefire before the fighting jeopardizes its gains in Syria.
These are just two in a number of significant regional developments – for example, the boiling tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, two important allies of Israel, over control of the Nile River; or the increasingly harsh fighting in Libya, which could destabilize the Mediterranean Basin. In light of the storms forming and raging across the region and beyond, Israel has to return to playing an active and leading role.
