The shock sustained by the political system following the exit polls of Monday's elections, which completely contradicted the surveys conducted over the past year, has cemented the Likud's sense of victory. This may help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu form a government even in a situation where the right-wing bloc does not secure the necessary 61 seats. Netanyahu disbanded the Knesset when he received 60 seats in the April 2019 elections, but things are looking different now.
MKs, as a faction or individuals, who leave the Center-Left bloc to join the coalition will be regarded less as defectors and more as lawmakers seeking to spare Israel from a fourth round of elections. The question is whether anyone will step forward and is the confidence shown by right-wing officials in this issue is founded.
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The perception of victory is not created in a vacuum. Netanyahu did win. Likud's achievement in the March 2 vote is its greatest ever – nearing that of former Likud leader Ariel Sharon, who led the Likud in 2003 to 38 mandates. Blue and White, on the other hand, really did lose. The result was far off from what they sought and what could have been achieved given Netanyahu's legal circumstances.
The perception of losing is not created in a vacuum, either. Most of all, it attests to the void presented in the venture called Blue and White.
The connection between the Israel Resilience, Yesh Atid and Telem parties is loose, at best. The hidden ideological gaps, the attempt to pass themselves off as right-wing, and especially championing the fight against corruption so vigorously and in a way so detached from reality, all hampered the party's ability to gain achievements it could have actually marked.
Any attempt by the losing party to illicitly rise to power, be it by legislation or other parliamentary measures that will see them cooperate with the Joint Arab List or with Yisrael Beytenu and others with the aim of preventing Netanyahu from forming a government and foiling the will of the people will be futile.
It is impossible to erase the election of millions of Israelis by passing retroactive legislation and expect the public and other lawmakers to simply accept it.
Talks by various officials in the right-wing bloc, especially in Yamina, that Netanyahu would partner with Blue and White and not with them are nothing more than media spins. Netanyahu is committed to his base and he will not abandon it, even it that spells a fourth election. It would be political suicide on his part to act differently.
The second difficult task Netanyahu will face is divvying up the ministries. In a situation where the prime minister needs every vote, the parties' demands are likely to skyrocket. If, for example, there is progress in joining forces with Blue and White, he would naturally be eligible for the Defense Portfolio, but that is currently manned by Yamina's Naftali Bennett, and he is unlikely to willingly step aside.
The same goes for Yamina's demand to rename Ayelet Shaked as justice minister, when Likud minister Yariv Levin wants the job. But these are easier bridges to cross than that of getting everyone to agree to join the government.