With elections mere days away the last Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll before Israelis go to the polls projects a dead heat between ruling party Likud and challenger Blue and White, but says that overall, the right-wing bloc secures a narrow, one-mandate lead.
Monday's general elections mark an unprecedented third vote in the span of one year. But with polls consistently indicating a race that is too close to call between Likud and Blue and White, and given that neither the right- nor the left-wing bloc has emerged as being able to secure the 61-seat majority necessary to form a government, concerns that Israel will find itself facing a fourth vote in the fall of 2020 are growing.
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The survey, which under Israeli election laws is the last that can be published ahead of the March 2 vote, projected 33 seats for Likud and Blue and White each.
The Joint Arab List, an alliance comprising the Arab or mostly Arab parties Balad, Ra'am-Ta'al, and Hadash, is expected to with 14 seats, retaining its position as the third-largest faction in the Knesset.
The poll gave the Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance nine seats – a similar number to the mandates Yamina, a faction comprising the New Right, National Union, and Habayit Hayehudi parties, is expected to garner.
Next came Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas (8), its Ashkenazi counterpart United Torah Judaism (7) and Yisrael Beytenu, also with seven seats.
The far-right Otzma Yehudit party fails to pass the prerequisite four-Knesset-seat electoral threshold of 3.25% of the votes.
The survey, by the Maagar Mochot polling institute, shows that neither political bloc would be able to muster a majority in the 120-seat Knesset: The Right-haredim bloc is projected to secure 57 seats, whereas the Center-Left and Arab parties would have a combined 56 seats. This again gives Yisrael Beytenu the key to the fate of the next government.
Asked who is better suited for the role of the prime minister, 49% named Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 35% chose Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, and 16% said they didn't know or had no opinion on the matter.
Asked what they thought about the latest election campaign, 44% of respondents said they thought the parties ran a dirty campaign, 32% said it was boring, 5% found it to be fair, 4% said it was violent, 3% thought it was worthy, and 12% said they didn't know or had no opinion on the matter.
Asked if the various campaigns and events that have taken place in recent weeks changed their voting inclinations, 12% of respondents said they changed their mind during the campaign and the reminder 88% said they did not. Overall, 9% of Likud supporters said they changed their minds as did 11% of Blue and White supporters.
The most significant factor for Likud voters in the elections remains the identity of the party's leader (42%), the poll found. Among Blue and White voters, only 26% said the same.
Asked whether the fact that they have to vote for the third time in one year has affected how they perceive the political system, 69% of the respondents said they thought less of Israeli politics over this logjam, 27% said their opinion hasn't changed, and 4% said they thought better of Israeli politics for it.
As for what lies ahead, 38% of those polled said they believed a fourth vote would be called. Some 31% think a right-wing government will be formed, 11% argued that a national unity government will be cobbled together, 9% hedged on a left-wing government, and 11% said they didn't know or had no opinion on the matter.
The poll was conducted using a representative sample of 1040 eligible voters in Israel. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.
