In about two weeks, Israelis will be asked to vote in the general elections for the third time in one year – a first in the country's history. And if that's not enough, the latest polls predict the political logjam is here to stay, fostering a growing feeling in the public that the exhausting, surrealistic saga of Israeli politics may drag on to a fourth vote, or worse.
While most political experts reject the possibility that a fourth round of elections will be called, others are wary of making a prediction the like of which was debunked following the second elections called in 2019. The one thing they all agree on is simple – when it comes to Israeli politics in the election year, all bets are off.
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"I was sure there wouldn't be a repeat election," says businessman and journalist Aviv Bushinsky. "I ate my hat that time, but now I am convinced it won't happen again and hope I am not proven wrong. I am convinced for a number of reasons. The first is that politicians usually find it difficult to compromise in order to form a unity government. People might say: 'He doesn't keep his promises, he is unreliable'. But after the sequence of failed elections, the public now wants a stable government, making it easier for many politicians to compromise. Their public won't be angry at them and the price they will pay will be much lower.
"In addition, an indictment against the prime minister has been issued – a fact that will make Netanyahu more flexible. He has accepted the fact that he will not have immunity, and therefore he will be more willing to compromise with Blue and White.
"Benny Gantz will also have an easier time because he knows the prime minister has grown weaker and won't be granted immunity in the next government. In addition, the parties themselves are now eager to avoid another election. There is a limit to the number of times that Blue and White – a party with four leaders – can contend," he said.
"The Likud, although it backs the PM, is also becoming impatient with the current situation of political indecision. It will therefore also push more forcefully for a coalition government without Netanyahu. MKs will say they have had enough. They have sympathy for the PM, but things can't go on like this. The only wild card left is Avigdor Lieberman, who at the moment is playing both sides".
Beyond the political interests and the fatigue of the public, says Bushinsky, there is a very significant factor that may force politicians to form a national unity government – namely, the economy.
"All of the organizations, NGOs, and major business leaders in the economy need an active government in order to operate. All these agents are currently stuck with an economy that is not functioning because there is no state budget. Therefore, after the elections, we will see a political stalemate, followed by a massive effort by businessmen to enter the fray and exert greater pressure on politicians to reach a decision. So far the business sector has been noncommittal, but now it will be much more active."
Senior media consultant Ze'ev Yanai believes the key to the third election is higher voter turnout among groups with low turnout rates, such as Arab Israelis, as well as the maximization of the electoral power of each political camp, without a loss of votes.
"Studies in persuasion theory have found that once an individual has formed his political opinion and has made his decision public – for example, hung a banner, told his friends, gone to the polls to cast his ballot, he will not change his mind under any circumstances," he said. "In Israel we have seen evidence for this claim, with virtually no change in voting patterns between the first and second elections. In the third elections as well we will probably see the same voting patterns, as well as the very same voters.
"The solution is simply to increase voter turnout. Each camp has to work harder to bring as many of its voters as possible to the polls. For example, if the Arab sector has low voter turnout, the center-left camp should urge the Arabs to go out and vote en masse. Similarly, the center-right camp needs to increase the voter turnout among its supporters. They should also consider the fact that about 100,000 votes are wasted on the Otzma Yehudit party. These voters need to be transferred to the group whose votes are counted, otherwise, the right will lose them."
Yanai believes the key to breaking the stalemate lies with Avigdor Lieberman, who will finally have to decide which camp to join. "I think Lieberman understands that he can no longer play both sides and that he must make a decision. In other words, a fourth election will anger his public. Now he knows that Blue and White will not enter a coalition with the Joint Arab List, so Gantz cannot form a government on his own. What then? Either there will be a unity government with Netanyahu, or Lieberman will join a right-wing government. I don't think he has any other options, but I may be wrong."
Unlike Bushinsky and Yanay, Ariel Sender, the strategic adviser to US President Donald Trump's campaign in Israel, believes that "Israel is heading towards a fourth election in September 2020," explaining: "Unfortunately, in the case of a tie most of the parties have a vested interest in holding another election. The Likud and the prime minister will in such a case undoubtedly benefit from dragging the country to another election, which will keep up the tension in the political system as Netanyahu begins his legal battle in April of this year.
"Naftali Bennett, too, is under no pressure to leave the Defense Ministry after the elections, and another round will keep him in office for at least another six months. For Bennett those additional months as Defense Minister are an asset on both the national level and the party level. For Blue and White, a tie provides an opportunity to base their next election campaign on Netanyahu's legal quandary, which might finally remove him from power. They've already said that they're running a marathon and not a sprint. Judging by the last election campaigns, Blue and White's public, too, is prepared to wait for a decisive victory.
"Of course, Lieberman and Yisrael Beytenu, as the deciding factor, have no problem going on and on, even to a fifth election. The haredi public is also prepared to vote in new elections every four months since they seem not to change their voting patterns from one election to the other. The same goes for the Joint Arab List and its voters. And so, with the exception of the Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance whose survival hinges on every vote, Israel seems to be galloping toward a fourth round of elections in September 2020!"
Media adviser and political strategist Tami Sheinkman believes the current situation is drowsy, and that in order to prevent a fourth election the politicians must shake the public out of its lethargy.
"It's as if all of the parties are soundly asleep," she said. "The elections are not at the top of the media's agenda. Among the leading new items, this issue is trailing behind at the end of the news cycle and arouses no public enthusiasm. The personal rivalry, the declarations and the 'overblown' promises of the party leaders are met with annoyance.
"There is no doubt the main challenge facing the parties is voter turnout. The only way to increase voter turnout is to drive home the message that without a decisive win, a fourth round of elections is all but guaranteed.
"As I said, the politicians' main challenge is how to increase turnout. True, the thought of a fourth round is nauseating and truly worrying for the Israeli public, but is that enough to drive voters to the polls? Or has even the Israeli public finally given up?
"The politicians will have to convince the public that the election is not about their personal careers, but rather, that it is necessary to get the state back on track. Above all, they should hope that the weather on election day is on the cold side and not mild, so that voters do not prefer having a picnic in the park over voting".
