Most Israelis believe that the political logjam will still grip Israel in the wake of the March 2 general election, a poll commissioned by Israel Hayom and i24NEWS found Thursday.
Israel called the unprecedented third vote in the span of one year after the races in April and September failed to produce a clear winner and neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Blue and White leader Benny Gantz were able to put together a coalition.
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The survey, conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute, found that if elections were held at this time, Blue and White would win 34 Knesset seats, besting the Likud, which would secure 32 mandates.
The Joint Arab List would retain its position as the third-largest party in parliament with 14 seats, followed by Yamina, which comprises the New Right, National Union, and Habayit Hayehudi parties (9), Shas (8), the Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance (8), United Torah Judaism (8), and Yisrael Beytenu, with seven seats.
The far-right Otzma Yehudit party failed to secure the prerequisite four-Knesset-seat electoral threshold of 3.25% of the votes.
These results give the right-wing bloc 57 confirmed mandates, and the center-left bloc 42. Like in previous polls, it remains unclear who Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman will endorse, nor is it clear whether the Joint Arab List will again back Blue and White, as it did following the Sept. 17 elections.
The survey also looked at the extent to which the respondents would vote according to their political affiliation. The data shows that Labor-Gesher-Meretz supporters seem the most eager to cast their ballot, with 84% saying they will "definitely" do so. Some 81% of United Torah Judaism said the same, as did 64% of Blue and White supporters and 60% of Likud voters.
Asked which government should be formed, some 30% of respondents said they prefer a right-wing government led by Likud, 23% favored the center-left-led minority government with the outside support of the Joint Arab List, 19% said they would like to see a narrow national unity government of Likud and Blue and White, 17% supported a large unity government comprising Likud, Blue and White, and the right-wing bloc, and 12% said they had no opinion on the matter.
Nevertheless, 28% of those polled said they believed the third elections will not yield a government and Israel will have to call a fourth consecutive vote.
Some 15% said they believe a right-wing government led by Likud will be installed, 13% think a large unity government will come to power, 11% hedged on the formation of a center-left-led minority government with the outside support of the Joint Arab List, 10% believe a narrow national unity government will be formed, 2% said it would be a center-left government, and 21% said they did not know or had no opinion on the matter.
Netanyahu remains the favorite for the position of the prime minister, with 47% of respondents saying he was best suited to lead the country. Thirty-five percent of those polled said they believed Gantz would make a better prime minister, and 18% said they had no opinion on the matter.
The poll further showed that while Israelis dread the ongoing political crisis, they do not believe it will be resolved come the March 2 vote.
Some 40% of respondents believe it is "highly likely" a fourth election will be called, 34% said it was "likely," 16% said a fourth election was "unlikely" and 10% said they had no opinion on the matter.
The poll was conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute among 506 respondents comprising a representative sample of Israelis 18 and over. The statistical margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.
