Iran is playing a major role in Israel's security assessments for 2020.
On Tuesday, the IDF's Military Intelligence Directorate submitted a document outlining its security and defense projections for 2020, which said that while the chances a war would be launched against Israel were low, there was a mid-to-high risk that events north of the border could devolve into a war.
The 2020 assessment was updated following the US airstrike that killed commander of Iran's Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Military Intelligence sees the elimination of Soleimani as a restraining factor, but one whose full ramifications have yet to be understood. The IDF believes that Soleimani's successor, Maj. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, will find it very difficult to fill Soleimani's shoes.
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According to the assessment, Soleimani's absence will have a direct effect on Israel. He was in charge of Hezbollah's precision missile project as well as the plans to imbed Shiite militias in Syria. Now Shiite states will have to make decisions about the future of those initiatives. The IDF thinks that the militia project will proceed, while Hezbollah's missile project could be shelved if Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah concludes that it is more trouble than it is worth. MI says that Hezbollah currently has very limited precision missile capabilities, and that they are not yet operational.
The IDF assessment for 2020 also notes that Nasrallah is not seeking a war with Israel, but is willing to fight one to protect "the equation of deterrence" north of Israel. MI thinks that continued "between-wars" action by Israel could lead to a response, which could have greater potential to devolve into a larger-scale conflict than responses in the past. However, the military assesses that in light of Soleimani's killing, Israel should step up its military activity against Iran's attempts to entrench itself in Syria and elsewhere.
The IDF assessment also touched on domestic matters in Lebanon and Iran, saying that both nations would continue to be bogged down in political and economic troubles this year.
Tehran is living off reserves
American sanctions on Iran have led to a significant drop in Iranian oil sales (from 2.8 million barrels per day two years ago to some 300,000 barrels in December 2019) and have dealt a serious blow to the Iranian economy, which is based mostly on oil revenues. The result is that Iran is blowing through its currency reserves and is finding it difficult to offer its citizens hope. Nevertheless, the IDF sees the Iranian regime as "stable" and successfully handling the recent wave of popular protests.
The IDF assessment says that in 2020, Iran will be forced to make some tough decisions given the economic crisis and internal dissent, including whether and how to proceed with its nuclear program. While Iran has thrown off the limits it accepts as part of the 2015 nuclear deal, the IDF thinks that Tehran is operating in a manner that will allow it to avoid going too far and keep some bargaining chips ahead of negotiations for a new agreement.
The IDF also warns that if Iran decides to move ahead with its nuclear program, by the end of the year it could enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear bomb. However, it would need another year to achieve military nuclear capability. The IDF assessment stressed that Israel is tracking Iran's nuclear program with more intensity to ensure that Iran is not working in any "secret channel" that is unknown to the West.
Closer to the border, the IDF believes that Syria will continue to present challenges to Israel mostly in the Iranian context. Syrian President Bashar Assad is busy trying to complete his capture of the last two pockets of resistance to his regime, after which he will be busy trying to rebuild his country. The Syrian army has already begun a process of rebuilding that includes new purchases of weapons and is renewing its work on chemical weapons, as well as biological weapons to a lesser extent.
A change in Syria
Amid the backdrop of Syria's desire to rehabilitate the country and Iran's current struggles, the IDF sees an opportunity for strategic change in Syria, even to the point of expelling the Shiite axis. This would require intervention and arrangements between the US and Russia, which wants to deepen it foothold in the region. Although Israeli officials aren't noticing a change in the Americans' desire to reduce their Middle East presence, for the time being, at least, US influence in the region is growing, primarily but not only due to the deterrence established by the Soleimani assassination. The Americans' main challenge in the coming year will remain in Iraq, where the fight over the US military presence will continue.
On the Palestinian front, the intelligence points to opposite trends: the possibility for stability in Gaza against the potential for destabilization in Judea and Samaria. The IDF believes that in the coming year Hamas will continue adhering to its understandings with Israel, in the hope that doing so will improve Gaza's economic situation. With that, Hamas will not accept conditioning any further understandings on the release of Israeli prisoners and bodies of IDF soldiers it is holding, and also won't agree to limit its armament efforts.
In Judea and Samaria, the IDF is again sounding the alarm over the possibility of a strategic turn of events, with "potentially dangerous" ramifications for Israel. This could happen as a result of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' departure and the consequent battles over his succession, or as a result of Hamas possibly winning the planned general election in the PA. The terror threats from Judea and Samaria will not subside, and although they are expected to be lesser in scope, they will be more professional and potent in nature.
New projects
In its annual assessment, MI also points to the growing challenges on the cyber and social media fronts – both in terms of Israel's operations against its enemies and vice versa. In the coming year, the IDF intends to significantly increase its work in a variety of projects and subjects related to the field of information technology and how it can be used for intelligence gathering purposes. In its report, however, the IDF admits that it will continue struggling to predict economic developments and grass-root social shifts.
