Polls are showing Likud winning the second-largest number of votes in a general election, but right now all eyes are on the Likud primaries. The possibility that party leader and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose, or at least be embarrassed, has fired up the imaginations of many politicians who have been dreaming of this day for years. The fight for the top spot in the Likud stopped being a strictly internal matter some time ago. Various political players are already stirring the party's pot, with the intention of influencing Likud primary voters.
Last week, even the leaders of Blue and White were talking about the Likud primaries. Party leaders discussed the need to help former Likud minister Gideon Sa'ar win the primaries. If Sa'ar were to win and become leader of the Likud, it would give Benny Gantz options that don't exist as long as Netanyahu still holds the job. Gantz never said he was unwilling to join a government with the Likud. The opposite: in the last election campaign, Blue and White billboards touted the idea of a secular unity government. It's Netanyahu in particular that Gantz is ruling out. If Sa'ar were in Netanyahu's place, a government would be formed in a matter of days and Gantz's dream of becoming prime minister would become a reality.
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The party leaders reached the conclusion that if Blue and White were to face off against a Likud party headed by Sa'ar, the former would win a lot more votes. That would ensure that Gantz would be the first to serve as prime minister in a rotating unity government premiership. In fact, a rotation might not even be necessary: Netanyahu created an opposing bloc based on right-wing and haredi party leaders' personal commitment to Netanyahu. It's not certain Sa'ar would be able to put a bloc like that together, which would make it easier for Gantz to put together a government, since he wouldn't be dependent on partnering with the Likud. This would eliminate the need for a rotation entirely, and Gantz would serve as prime minister for four years.
A bear hug
But as much as the idea entranced the leaders of Blue and White, they found themselves grappling with the question of how on earth they could help Sa'ar win.
When the main opposition party to the Likud was Kadima, there was fertile ground for cooperation. Much of Kadima's stomping ground overlapped the Likud's, and the Likud had plenty of points where it could exert pressure. But the Likud and Blue and White have little overlap. There are a few local council heads from Blue and White who have Likud deputies who could be pressured, but when it comes to the national Likud primaries, Blue and White has virtually no influence.
The discussion among Blue and White leaders also resulted in a suggestion that journalists be briefed in favor of Gideon Sa'ar, which would strengthen his public image in general and among the 160,000 voters in the Likud primaries in particular. But that is also a problematic proposal. Blue and White has noticed that most of the media is already backing Sa'ar, and intervention by Blue and White could do more harm than good. The last thing Blue and White needs is for Likudniks to discover that Sa'ar is the center-left party's preferred candidate.
Sa'ar is more cautious than other candidates from the Right who have won the open support of those who wish Netanyahu ill. Many who came before him have faced the same dilemma. The sudden embrace by the media is addictive. Any statement against Netanyahu becomes a headline; every event is hailed as a success; and every open house is called the start of a revolution. Negative reports are sidelines and almost entirely barred from the public discourse.
But that comes at a price. Likud voters have a keen sense of smell. The pundits' assessments of how independently they think tends to be wrong. When those who regularly slander the party become allies of one particular candidate, he or she becomes suspicious. So Sa'ar is walking a fine line, enjoying the support from the Left while never ceasing to cozy up to the Right.
Netanyahu didn't want primaries in the Likud and tried to keep them from happening. Only when he realized that it would be to his detriment to hide behind procedural technicalities that would keep him party leader did he agree to run. Now, a little more than a week after he launched his campaign, it appears as if he wouldn't do anything differently. He is campaigning more fervently than he has in a awhile. He is holding dozens of events a week, meeting with activists by the busload and enjoying support that borders on worship. People show up at events as Likud supporters and leave as Netanyahu groupies. Activists talk about Netanyahu using biblical terms. Women raise their arms and rain blessings on his head, crying excitedly; men tell him that they name him in their Shabbat prayers and ask for God to help him win.
Last week, Netanyahu found the time to attend a major Chabad conference. He spoke movingly about his meetings with the Lubavitcher Rebbe. He described their first encounter, shortly after Netanyahu was named Israeli Ambassador to the UN. That meeting took place at the Chabad house in Brooklyn in 1984, on Simchat Torah. The rabbi spent 40 minutes talking with Netanyahu.
The Pied Piper Barak
Ehud Barak is a unique politician, one that led a long line of former politicians who decided to follow him into pointless political adventures and wound up being left to their fate, without any political home or foreseeable future. Now Stav Shaffir and Yair Golan are joining the ever-lengthening list. The Democratic Union-Meretz merger, a promise that went unfulfilled when the votes were counted, will almost certainly fall apart. Meretz prefers its member Esawi Frej, who failed to make it into the Knesset in the last election, to Shaffir and Golan, who couldn't deliver the goods. The party claims that the loss of Israeli Arab votes to the Joint Arab List was due to Frej being pushed out. Shaffir, Golan, and Barak couldn't make up for that electoral hit.
Shaffir was offered the fifth spot on the Meretz list, an offer that prompted her to threaten to leave and set up a rival "green" list. The threat is an empty one – an announcement that she was founding a party like that would be tantamount to announcing she is leaving politics.
Whither Shaked?
Ayelet Shaked has once again been caught unprepared. Instead of announcing immediately that she would be rejoining the New Right, she is considering throwing her hat in the ring for the leadership of a religious Zionist party – if one of them holds primaries. The current belief is that Shaked will eventually rejoin Bennett, which would allow the religious parties to unite.
Thus far, they have managed to unite only at the last minute and after plenty of mudslinging, which caused the public to lose faith in them as they headed into election day exhausted from internal battles. As of Friday, it appeared that this time will be no different.
More on the Left
Labor leader Amir Peretz doesn't want to join forces with any party other than Orly Levy-Abekasis' Gesher, but he is preparing the ground for the event that the party continues to fall in the polls and could wind up being at risk of not making it past the minimum electoral threshold. A merger with Meretz is not an option for him, certainly not when Stav Shaffir would be part of the package.
Peretz would prefer to join forces with Blue and White. He has already held a few meetings with Gantz, but as of now they have decided not to make any decisions and wait until the deadline to finalize the party lists to see how the land lies. Gantz has made no promises to Peretz. The Labor leader could find himself courting Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz, and possibly taking Shaffir back.
