Looking back on the past 12 months, defense officials can be satisfied with the fact that in terms of Israel's counterterrorism efforts, 2019 fared better than its predecessor: Five Israelis were killed in terrorist attacks this year, compared to 13 in 2018.
The decrease in the number of casualties does not indicate a diminished motivation among the terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip or Judea and Samaria. If anything, the opposite is true and their motivation to carry out attacks against Israeli civilians and security forces is only growing.
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The only thing keeping them at bay are the tireless counterterrorism efforts of the Shin Bet security agency and the military.
The two latest successes in this arena, namely the detection and arrest of Hamas and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist cells in Judea and Samaria, have little in common other than being representations of this phenomenon.
But they nevertheless symbolize the two-pronged effort by the Palestinian terrorist groups. On the one hand, Hamas is trying to orchestrate terrorist attacks by having operatives abroad plan them, while on the other hand, the PFLP is trying to execute attacks within Judea and Samaria.
The two groups themselves are also very different: Hamas is a religious organization while the PFLP is a secular organization.
The latest report suggesting that Hamas operatives based in Turkey are planning attacks in Israel is not new in and of itself.
Hamas has been maintaining an active branch in Istanbul for years, tasking it with fundraising and with planning attacks in Judea and Samaria.
The British Telegraph's report, however, paints a broad picture that sheds new light on Turkey, its ideological empathy with Hamas, and its desire to have more of a say in all things Gaza and Jerusalem-related.
The report further suggests that by harboring Hamas operatives, including the once-deported-but-now-returned deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri, Ankara is in breach of a 2015 US-brokered deal with Israel.
In recent years Arouri has proven that his reputation as an arch-terrorist isn't what it used to be, which is why Hamas leadership in Gaza has taken over the direction of most terrorist attacks. Still, his very presence in Istanbul and the fact that Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades officials roam Turkish soil freely is a sign of Turkish defiance, which is potentially very dangerous.
As for the PFLP cell nabbed in Judea and Samaria, while this case has local features, the Shin Bet has to investigate how these terrorists – some of whom have a long record as security prisoners – were able to stay under the radar for as long as they did.
One reason for this could be the fact that the PFLP is an extremely compartmentalized organization that trains its operatives in a virtual vacuum so that in the event they are arrested, they cannot divulge too much information.
Shin Bet interrogators have also said that the cell's members proved tough nuts to crack, but those are mere extenuating circumstances. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine should always be on Israeli intelligence's radar.
It is likely that there will now be a decline in the activities of this organization, as happened to it in the past after waves of previous arrests of its activists. This will allow the GSS to focus on its main challenge – Hamas – that goes nowhere. Judging by the test of intent, it will take strenuous intelligence work (and, as usual, not too much luck) to continue the trend in terrorism data in 2020 as well.
The PFLP is likely to retreat to its corner, as it has been the case after previous Israeli raids against its operations. This will allow the Shin Bet to focus on its main challenge in Judea and Samaria – Hamas. Gaza's rulers seek only to tighten their grip on the area, both to target Israel and further undermine the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Judging by the test of intent, Israel will have to employ strenuous intelligence efforts – and rely on some luck – to see the declining trend of terrorist attacks continue in 2020.
