Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated his 70th birthday on Monday. He received a phone call from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who wished him a happy birthday, and on Saturday night, called President Reuven Rivlin to inform him he had not succeeded in forming a government.
There are a few theories as to why, for around a month, Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz refused to enter into negotiations for a unity government. Maybe he expected there to be a revolt within the Likud party, or for one of the religious parties to withdraw from the right-wing bloc. Another seemingly less realistic possibility is that Gantz will succeed in theory to establish a minority government that relies on the support of the Joint Arab List. This is an option Netanyahu might find favorable, as he could then serve as the leader of a combative opposition against a government with no life expectancy to speak of and that will see Gantz come off an irresponsible and anti-nationalist figure.
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That is why the main explanation as to why Gantz and his fellow party members Yair Lapid and Ofer Shelah asked the Balad party not to recommend the former IDF chief of staff be tasked with forming the government was that, in the next month, or immediately thereafter, Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit will decide whether to file an indictment against Netanyahu.
While members of Netanyahu's inner circle believe they have succeeded in dismantling the cases in the hearing, that of course is not for certain. And Lapid and Gantz are counting on Mendelblit deciding in favor of an indictment, which they believe will, in turn, lead to the dissolution of the right-wing camp and a revolt within the Likud. Gideon Sa'ar, Israel Katz, and Nir Barkat, who have all declared their intentions of running for Likud leader in the post-Netanyahu era, will all come out dancing to the tune of Lapid, Gantz, State Attorney Shai Nitzan, and Netanyahu's case lawyer, Liat Ben Ari.
Netanyahu's mission, then, will be to maintain unity in the Likud and among the Right. It seems it is Yamina party member Naftali Bennett's public declaration of support for the prime minister that could signal the direction things are headed. Since Netanyahu returned the mandate, its transfer to Gantz is a merely technical matter; the Blue and White leader was not direct with President Rivlin, ignored the president's reasonable offers, and dragged things out so that the timing of the bomb he believes the attorney general will drop will serve to weaken and even neutralize Netanyahu.
If Gantz would have accepted the president's framework for a unity government between Likud and Blue and White, Netanyahu's ability to function as prime minister would have left the legal sphere for the practical sphere. In practice, a year would pass from the filing of an indictment until the beginning of a trial. But Lapid and Gantz want to prevent a situation in which Netanyahu continues to serve as prime minister for any length of time at any price, including at the expense of state security and economic stability.
It should be noted that Gantz spoke about a major operation to defeat Hamas ahead of the election. But recent developments that have seen the standing of the US weakened in the region appear to have convinced Gantz the issue is less pressing than he originally had us believe.
What is even crazier is that, according to the assessments, Mendelblit will determine the timing of his decision on an indictment in accordance with the date of Nitzan's retirement. Nitzan, of course, has demanded the cases be decided while he is still in office. Netanyahu believes it is absurd that the destiny of the nation could be determined according to someone's timeframe.
But even if a decision is made in December, as a result of Gantz dragging the matter out, there is still the possibility Mendelblit's decision will differ from the one the media parties and Blue and White are all hoping for. At any rate, that is when the third attempt to form a government will be made. And this time, it will have nothing to do with the president. Any Knesset member who, within the 21-day timeframe, is able to provide 61 mandates can be appointed prime minister.
In such a situation, there is a possibility Gantz will compromise on the president's framework and agree to form a unity government that is led by Netanyahu for the first year, followed by Gantz for two years, and sees Netanyahu once again serving as leader for the fourth year. Clearly, Gantz, Lapid, and Yisrael Beytenu's Avigdor Lieberman will look to embark on new elections with Gantz in the saddle. But until that time, such a move could at least solve the current political imbroglio. At the same time, Lieberman could also reach the conclusion that bringing about a third election is a worse price to pay than joining a government with the haredim. The chances of this happening are slim, and the possibility of Israel embarking on yet another election looks more and more realistic as time passes.
A ruling by the attorney general against Netanyahu will not necessarily hurt him as a Likud candidate. In fact, it may have the opposite effect. The sense of injustice will be very explosive fuel for the election, and the candidate that tries to undermine Netanyahu's leadership could pay the price for doing so the day after.
