Avigdor Lieberman, as is usual with him, is not making things easy for the prime minister. He is not denying that he intends to help establish a minority government under Blue and White leader Benny Gantz with the support of the Arab parties. Blue and White isn't ruling out that option, which increases concern in Netanyahu's inner circle that his opponents on both the Right and the Left have struck a secret alliance to bring him down, no matter what the cost.
In the minority government scenario, the moment Benny Gantz is given the mandate to form a government, he will bring in Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union and will reach out to the Arab parties to garner their support for ministerial appointments, thereby giving himself a safety net if there is a vote of confidence and to help him pass the next budget. In that case, Gantz would have 57 votes for his government. If Lieberman doesn't oppose it – and instead chooses to abstain from the vote or skip it entirely – Gantz would have 57 votes in his favor, compared to 55 nay votes, meaning that Netanyahu would be ousted immediately. Even if his coalition didn't survive and we headed into another election, Gantz would be prime minister during the transition period, not Netanyahu.
Gantz would run while sitting in the prime minister's office and the public would have to get used to the fact that for the first time in a decade, another leader could take the reins without the country falling apart. On the other hand, the moment Gantz takes his seat as prime minister, he might be forced to call an election if he doesn't bring other parties into his government. A move like that would bust the bloc of the 55 MKs who support Netanyahu, as the smaller right-wing parties might start looking for ways to join the ruling party despite the change of leadership. Even in the Likud, a miraculous revolt could gain traction when the realization that Netanyahu is no longer prime minister sinks in and the battle to be next in line kicks off openly.
The alternative on the horizon
But although many would benefit from such a move, the chances of it succeeding – as of now – are slim to none. It's true that Lieberman isn't denying that he would support it, but at the moment of truth the chance that he will be part of any plan that involves the Arab factions is close to zero.
Lieberman wants Netanyahu out of power, but he isn't willing to sacrifice his own political fate to see that happen. His supporters go along when he talks about a unity government, even if it would hurt the Right, but if we are to have a narrow coalition, he would prefer one that comprises Blue and White and the Arabs rather than the Likud and the haredim. His followers might forgive him for the former, but not the latter.
The Arab parties themselves are hardly of a single mind. Gantz might be able to secure a show of support from Ta'al leader Ahmad Tibi and Hadash head Ayman Odeh (although the subject hasn't been broached); but not with Balad, which didn't even support him as the candidate to form a government.
In the case of a mandate transfer, we wouldn't be talking about support in the form of a recommendation to the president, but active support in a Knesset plenum vote to approve the ministerial appointments. If Balad refused to support the former, why would it agree to the latter?
Blue and White isn't in lockstep, either. The right-wing figures on the list, including Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel, could refuse to be part of a minority government that rests on the support of Arab parties. Without them, there would be no majority to overcome opposition from the Likud and the right-wing parties.
In general, cracks are starting to form in Blue and White's party unity. Right-wing officials who are in contact with top Blue and White officials say that this past week, Gantz is starting to sing a new and unfamiliar tune.
According to the officials, in closed talks Gantz truly seemed to be wondering about joining a unity government with Netanyahu, with the latter taking the first turn in a rotation. They are saying that Gantz is sick and tired of Blue and White No. 2 Yair Lapid pulling the party backward and being unwilling to talk with Netanyahu at all, which could lead to a historic missed chance for Gantz to serve as prime minister two years from now, and possibly sooner. The only question is whether or not Gantz is built to withstand the attacks the media will fire at him for joining Netanyahu in a government, and Lapid could wind up leading the offensive.
If we take the option of a minority government off the table, we're back where we started – with the entire political system at an impasse following the election. This is a blockage that won't be cleared even if Gantz is given the mandate to form a government. The uncertainty is starting to have an effect. Politicians in the Likud as well as heads of other parties are starting to look for alternatives. The right-wing bloc won't break up yet, but they are slowly starting to extract themselves from the stranglehold they have on each other.
All for one
After former Likud minister Gideon Sa'ar announced he would run against Netanyahu in Likud primaries that, it turns out, weren't held, this week it was Foreign Minister Israel Katz's turn to announce the same thing. At an even in his sukka at Kfar Ahim, Katz made a speech in which he threw his hat into the ring, and informed thousands of Likud activists that he too intended to vie for prime minister in the post-Netanyahu era.
This wasn't the first time Katz has made the declaration, or even the second. He repeated that he would not run against Netanyahu, but would try for the party leadership only after the latter was no longer in power.
Meanwhile, leaders of the Ashkenazi haredi United Torah Judaism were looking around this week for a way to dial back their absolute refusal to join a government with Lapid. Naftali Bennett decided long ago that he would devote his energy not to demanding either a right-wing government or a new election, but rather to a unity government. He is busy getting his supporters used to the idea of him sitting with Gantz and Lapid.
The search for new horizons doesn't mean that the right-wing bloc is breaking up. It appears that everyone is laying the groundwork for the day after the hammer falls, but only if Netanyahu changes direction and decides to give up. If he decides to hold on, they'll all stay with him – stuck to him and to each other, whether they find themselves on their way into a government or over the edge of a cliff.
There is almost no risk of Netanyahu deciding to fight but not having any soldiers. In that sense, the alliance of 55 MKs who will oppose a narrow government is a kind of alliance in blood. All for one, one for all. Lieberman and Blue and White's demand that the prime minister disband his bloc and enter a unity government, and his refusal to comply, gives him points with his supporters and strengthens the bond between them all. But the true test will be when Gantz receives the mandate. Some think that not much will change, but there is little value in situational assessment in these mad times.
