Before any general election, each candidate hopes the president will task him or her with forming the next government. Now, however, for the first time ever, the candidates hope President Reuven Rivlin will task their rival with the responsibility.
It seems the president has never had as much discretion as he does presently. Even in 1984 when the election resulted in a deadlock, Shimon Peres was tasked with forming the government because he received three more seats than his rival.
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As stated, however, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor Blue and White leader Benny Gantz want be granted the opportunity first, because alongside the inherent advantages of such a mandate, going first would actually reduce their chances of successfully forming a coalition.
On the other hand, both Netanyahu and Gantz aren't sure they want to go second either. Being tasked first comes with considerable advantages. For instance, when the Knesset is sworn in, power is transferred to the party that received the president's mandate. It controls the Arrangements Committee, it can create other committees, pass laws, and even try appointing a permanent Speaker of the Knesset – who wouldn't be replaced even if the other party eventually forms the government.
Gantz considered all these benefits when he decided to enter talks with the Arab parties, most of which recommended his Blue and White party and increased his odds of receiving the president's mandate. Again, though, in complete contrast to the aforementioned benefits, going first also entails the most critical of pitfalls – it reduces his chances of actually forming a government.
As of now, each side and all the parties are doubling down on their campaign promises. Netanyahu corralled a solid right-wing bloc that gives him the keys to forming a government at all, while Blue and White is refusing to enter coalition talks. It's safe to assume that as time passes, the glue holding these promises together will start to weaken.
This won't happen right away, but coalition talks last a minimum of 28 days, with an option for a 14-day extension thereafter. Another election, which would be Israel's third in the past year, is an extreme and outrageous scenario. We can reasonably expect all sides to do their utmost to gradually and eventually eschew most if not some of their campaign vows to avoid dispersing another Knesset. However, the fact that the first candidate's failure to form a government simply means the second in line receives the opportunity, could lead the parties to harden their stances in the near future and prevent progress.
Hence, only after the second candidate's attempt to form a government – in other words in another two-three months from today – will the pressure reach a breaking point conducive to compromise. Or perhaps other solutions will arise, such as party defections capable of tipping the scales.
For the time being, once the president is done receiving all the parties' recommendations, the decision is entirely his. It stands to reason that Rivlin, who is motivated by a healthy appetite for revenge toward the prime minister, will consider the option most likely to hurt Netanyahu, whether that means tasking him first or second, and will choose accordingly. The reasons for any decision he eventually makes, after all, are already known.
