The IDF's success in foiling Hezbollah's revenge attack is the result of several factors: excellent intelligence, experience in the northern sector against the Iran-backed terrorist group, proper deployment of forces, and a helicopter ruse to deceive the enemy. The IDF's Northern Command and Galilee Division did a good job preparing the border area in the week that passed since Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's fiery speech last Sunday in which he vowed to strike back at Israel for its alleged drone strike in Beirut.
An armored vehicle, which also functions as a military ambulance, parked at a predesignated position in IDF outpost near the border. Soldiers from the Commando Brigade, who were sent to the northern sector several days ago as part of the army's special operational measures, exited the vehicle shortly before the missiles were fired by the Hezbollah cell.
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The ruse consisted of a media blackout involving "wounded" soldiers, including their alleged evacuation to Rambam hospital in Haifa. The IDF then responded by hitting a series of targets in Lebanon (all carefully chosen to avoid civilian casualties to keep the plan intact). Lebanese media outlets, mainly those affiliated with Hezbollah, were quick to celebrate the achievement of wounding Israeli soldiers. The IDF spokesperson issued a statement that no troops were hurt.
The success of the IDF's deception allowed Sunday's skirmish to end without casualties, although it still isn't clear if the clash is entirely over. It all depends on the story Hezbollah tells itself and Nasrallah's credibility with himself and in the eyes of his personal and political supporters. If the Lebanese people believe the revenge attack succeeded, and that Israel is lying and concealing its casualties, the army can lower its alert level and put a bowtie on the present affair. However, if the people in Lebanon feel humiliated once again – the first time following the attacks in Beirut and Syria, and the second time on Sunday – Hezbollah could look to strike again, albeit in lesser scope, in the hope of exacting its revenge.
Hence, at least over the next 24 hours and maybe longer, Israel must continue keeping close tabs on movements in Lebanon and maintain operational readiness. It must also study and learn the necessary operational lessons. Hezbollah has already fallen for the trap but won't fall for it so easily again. It will learn, make corrections and improve to ensure success in the future – perhaps the near future.
The IDF's effective tactical conduct appears to have prevented a broader conflagration in the northern sector. Northern Command prepared for the possibility that Hezbollah would pull off a large terrorist attack. This would have obligated Israel to respond harshly, which in turn would have likely triggered a counter strike by Hezbollah and an exchange of blows leading to all-out war.
This scenario did not materialize, but the threats still exist. Although Hezbollah said its attack was retaliation for the deaths of its two operatives in Syria last week, in which the IDF thwarted a planned drone strike on Israeli targets, the organization mostly wants to avenge the damage to its precision missile components in south Beirut.
The strategic threat wasn't neutralized on Sunday. Hezbollah is still licking its wounds from the Israeli drone strike in south Beirut, but alongside its (separate) promises of revenge, it will also seek other ways to acquire a massive arsenal of precision missiles. While Israel has already drawn clear red lines in the proverbial sand, the mysterious drone strike on the Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut, together with the ensuing public relations campaign, might not be enough to deter the terrorist group. It's more likely that Israel will soon have to face the same dilemma: Attack, knowing that doing so could perhaps ignite an immediate war, but significantly mitigate the damage of such a war down the road.
