The infighting on the Right continued, as usual, this week, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's top priority was and remains the formation of a right-wing government, and yes that means with the leader of Yamina, formerly United Right, Ayelet Shaked and her fellow faction members Naftali Bennett and Bezalel Smotrich, as well as all the haredi parties. Such a government will provide stability to the leader at its head and will be able to continue to serve without disruption, including those caused by legal issues that could arise during its tenure.
But in order to form such a government, Netanyahu must achieve a majority of at least 61 Knesset seats from right-wing parties outside of Yisrael Beytenu. While this is still a possibility, according to the polls, it is highly unlikely. And what then? Netanyahu cannot afford to be led into another round of elections, and the president may not task him with forming the next government but rather Blue and White party chief Benny Gantz, who has yet to be be given the opportunity to try.
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In the meantime, the battle within the blocs is in full swing. Netanyahu came out on the attack against Shaked and Bennett this week, accusing them of seeking to join a left-wing government. The two responded by saying it was in fact Netanyahu who was looking to form a government with left-wing elements instead of a party on the Right.
This battle serves both sides, and not just in the battle over right-wing votes and the ability to influence the narrative that will decide the results of the Sept. 17 election, but over the morning after. Netanyahu has promised to only work toward forming a right-wing government. Shaked and Bennett, on the other hand, have promised to only join a government led by Netanyahu. Should Netanyahu or Bennett and Shaked be so inclined as to violate their campaign promises, they will all be able to claim that the other side made the move first.
According to the polls, President Reuven Rivlin could be hard-pressed to decide just who he should task with forming the next government. The law determines that it must be the candidate with the greatest chances of success. But if none of the candidates have a majority of recommendations or an obstructive bloc, the president will be forced to examine other tools in making his decision, tools the likes of which have never been used in Israel before.
From Netanyahu's perspective, no outcome would be as desirable as a right-wing government with at least a 61-MK majority, although Israel will not necessarily be headed for another election even in the absence of such a majority.
One of the assessments as to why the Likud party is not attacking Gantz this time around is based on a theory that Netanyahu intends to offer the Blue and White party leader the role of senior partner in the government. Of course, both sides adamantly deny this is the case, but a few notes from the election campaign support this theory, beginning with the tense ties among members of Blue and White, in particular between Gantz and Lapid, and including Gantz's slips of the tongue in almost every interview he gives where it becomes abundantly clear that some type of partnership with Netanyahu is most certainly on the table.
The law determines that President Reuven Rivlin must task the candidate with the greatest chances of success with forming the government. But if none of the candidates emerge as such, the president will have to examine other options, including some the likes of which have never been used in Israel before
It is not only right-wing parties that are concerned by such a scenario, but also Lapid's Yesh Atid. In recent weeks, it seems Lapid is making every effort to differentiate himself from Gantz, in particular on matters concerning religion and state and the treatment of the haredim.
But Gantz is not Netanyahu's only option. Despite the mutual denials in this case as well, the assessment is that an alliance with Amir Peretz's Labor Party is also on the table.
Conducting negotiations with a right-wing candidate after that candidate has won is now part of the Labor party's DNA. With the exception of Shelly Yachimovich, all of Labor's recent party heads – Ehud Barak, Isaac Herzog, and Avi Gabbay – entered coalition talks with Netanyahu despite their having committed to not joining a government under his leadership. While Peretz is now making the same commitment, is there anyone now taking these oaths seriously? What's more, Peretz is no longer alone.
Gesher leader Orly Levy-Abekasis is part of the Labor party's Knesset list and could withdraw, together with her party members, from the alliance at any point she likes. Levy-Abekasis talks about binging about a change in Israel's priorities, and that is something that can only be done from within the government, not the opposition. At any rate, she has never said anything about refusing to join a Netanyahu government.
And there is one more option, which while far-fetched, remains a possibility in our political system: Likud will form a government with Lieberman. Yes, the same man who dragged the entire country into another election may decide for his own personal reasons to join the government, this time with the haredim and the "messianic Right," and relinquish his demand for a unity government, which it turns out, doesn't have much public support in any case.
But Lieberman can continue to insist that his demands be met. Netanyahu was once forced in 2013 to give up on a partnership with the haredi factions over Bennett's demands, and it may be that he will be forced to do so again to meet Lieberman's. This time, things could go even further, and see Netanyahu break ties not just with the haredim but with Habayit Hayehudi's Smotrich and Rafi Peretz as well. While Netanyahu prefers these two over Bennett and Shaked, Lieberman has already made it clear that the Zionist haredim are out of the question, but Bennett, and of course Shaked, are acceptable.
The political system may have already managed to forget, but Shaked and Lieberman are close. Lieberman has spoken warmly of Shaked on more than one occasion and even expressed hope she would join Yisrael Beytenu before she made the decision to continue with the United Right. Should Lieberman, someone who is openly interested in bringing down Netanyahu, join forces with Shaked, who secretly wants that to happen in order to pave her way back to the Likud, we may see some drama the day after the election.
And what if Shaked and Lieberman are in fact even more coordinated, with the aim of ensuring not just that a Netanyahu government is formed without the haredim, but that a government is formed without Netanyahu himself? And what chance do the other candidates have of forming a government if the president tasks someone like Gantz with forming the government?
The assessment is that, should Blue and White be tasked with forming the next government, this would be the glue the party needs in order to keep from falling apart immediately after the election. Gantz will need a majority, while Lapid will cling to the rotation agreement with all his might. But Lapid and the haredim do not go together, and Nitzan Horowitz, Stav Shaffir, and Ehud Barak's Democratic Union will not be thrilled about collaborating with Smotrich and his friends. Barak ruled out cooperating with Lieberman just last week.
Gantz's chances of heading the government, then, are practically nonexistent, assuming the election outcome will be similar to what has been predicted by the polls. Should Gantz opt for the haredim, he will need to say goodbye to Lapid and all his friends in Yesh Atid, without whom he has no chance of garnering a majority.
For Gantz, the best-case scenario would be a rotation government with the Likud. Gantz has seemingly ruled out serving with Netanyahu, but as he himself said just this week, the opportunity to serve in the role of premier, if only for a limited time, could make this bitter pill much easier to swallow. Should Likud and Blue and White join forces, the possibilities are much more varied. The two parties could form a government with Lieberman and the New Right, or with the haredim and the United Right and without Lieberman. We might even see Peretz and Levy-Abekasis jump on that bandwagon.
