A week before the deadline for parties to submit their final lists to the Central Elections Committee, the Left seems to be in better shape than the Right. The two parties to the left of Blue and White that made it over the minimum electoral threshold in April guaranteed that they would be represented in the Knesset this time around, thanks to Ehud Barak and Labor MK Stav Shafir joining forces with Meretz, a new Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by the Maagar Mohot Institute reveals.
However, the two parties to the right of the Likud – one of which, the New Right, failed to make it over the minimum threshold and into the Knesset in April – have yet to agree on a joint list. If that doesn't happen soon, it won't happen at all, and the day of the election will see them in much the same situation as they were six months ago.
The results could also be a repeat. While the poll shows the New Right and the United Right receiving six seats each, the polls last time failed to foresee that the New Right would crash and burn on election day. What's more, in April, the United Right included Habayit Hayehudi, National Union, and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party, whereas now there is still a question about whether the smaller right-wing parties will run as a single list or not.
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All this shakes down to a near tie in the number of seats, with 57 predicted for the Right – without Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman – and 56 for the Left, meaning that neither bloc would secure the 61 seats needed to form a government.
According to the poll, if the election were held now, Yisrael Beytenu would win seven seats and retain its position as the party that would tip the scales.
The poll projected nine seats for the newly-formed Democratic Union list (Meretz and Ehud Barak's Israel Democratic Party).
The poll projected 31 seats for the Likud, making it the largest party in the Knesset, with Blue and White behind by only one seat, at 30.
Labor would be the biggest loser to the Democratic Union, winning only a projected five seats.
On the right side of the political map, the poll projected that the New Right under Ayelet Shaked would win six seats, the same number projected for the United Right (Habayit Hayehudi and National Union.)
The poll also looked at possible joint lists on the Right. If all the right-wing parties were to run on one list with Shaked in the top spot, it would receive no fewer than 16 seats. In that scenario, the Likud would drop to 25 seats, and Blue and White would gain one seat, bumping it up to 31.
The poll showed that if the same right-wing list were to run with Habayit Hayehudi leader Rafi Peretz as leader, it would win only nine seats, and the Likud would win 30. Therefore, it's no wonder that reports from behind the scenes say that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to prevent Shaked from becoming the leader of a united right-wing party.
Sources involved in the ongoing negotiations to form a united right-wing list argue that the latest polls, in which the New Right performed well, could throw a wrench into the talks and prompt the United Right to increase its demands.
Sources close to Peretz and National Union leader Bezalel Smotrich said that "The New Right had really big numbers a few months before the last election, too, and we know how that ended."
On Thursday, Peretz released his latest offer to the New Right on Twitter, writing, "I was happy to hear that the New Right … is accepting our proposal for the 4th, 7th, and 10th places [on the list]." Peretz urged Shaked to meet with him "to decide on who would be party head."
However, Shaked on Thursday announced that "the public will not forgive anyone who prevents a union of the Right."
"The ball is in the United Right's court. The matter is urgent because I intend – if this union allows it – to form additional unions with every right-wing party and establish a kind of large Republican party, with a wide range of opinions to the right of the Likud," Shaked said.
When asked who they thought was most qualified to serve as prime minister, 45% of respondents picked Netanyahu, compared to 29% who picked Blue and White leader Benny Gantz. Only 9% said they thought Barak was the best candidate for prime minister, and another 9% said they thought Shaked would be the best prime minister.
Meanwhile, Israel Hayom has obtained a Likud position paper that was recently distributed to party MKs and ministers, instructing them to publicly address several issues that could be important to potential Likud voters.
One key message Likud MKs are being told to underscore is that the Likud "will not be part of a unity government."
When it comes to possible mergers between the smaller right-wing parties, the Likud's message is that Netanyahu is not intervening, but if necessary, he will.
"We must stop right-wing votes from being wasted so we don't see the right-wing bloc hurt or even another election," the paper stated.
How should Likud MKs talk about Gantz? Instructions are to say that "Every appearance he makes proves that the job is too big for him," and mention that the Israel Police is still refusing to disclose details of the "corrupt deal for 50 million shekels, from which Gantz and his friends made 4 million."
And Ehud Barak? "His pathetic apology [for the events of October 2000] which fooled no one, had only one purpose … to allow him to join up with Meretz. We are still waiting for Ehud Barak to apologize for having been the worst prime minister in the history of Israel, who ran away from Lebanon, left an IDF soldier to die, did nothing about the lynch [on IDF reservists] in Ramallah, [and] led us into the Intifada," Likud MKs were told to say.
