This isn't how Ehud Barak thought his political comeback – which started with roll of thunder, viral video clips, and barn-burning speeches – would wind up. For weeks, he planned the move that was supposed to put him back at the front of the political stage, possibly as a candidate for prime minister. This week, it ended. The chance that the man ranked 10th on the new Democratic Union list will make it into the next Knesset is close to nil.
After all the talk about a political bang, Barak and Labor MK Stav Shafir joining up with Meretz is reminiscent of the buzz that came before the founded of the New Movement – which led to Nitzan Horowitz joining the left-wing party in the first place. A lot of noise in the media, but nearly no effect at the polls.
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Now, once again, the old Meretz guard are being forced to pay the price and stand back to allow new members to jam themselves into the top places on the list, and a few months later watch them enjoying the MKs' cafeteria while they eat at home. To Barak's credit, this time he didn't abandon his friends - he took care to ensure they would have nice jobs and tickets into the parliament before he went back to international businesses and playing the piano.
The left-wing bloc that resulted from the move has the advantage of pulling Meretz away from the brink of not passing the minimum electoral threshold. If the Right manages to close deals for two joint tickets to the Right of the Likud (New Right/United Right and Zehut/Otzma Yehudit), Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be forced to run a campaign with one hand tied behind his back to ensure that none of the right-wing parties takes a fall like they did in April. Meanwhile, at Blue and White, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid can take votes away from the left-wing parties without fear.
So this week's election merger, even if it's not a "big bang" – or even a "little bang" – is unfortunate news for Netanyahu that will probably force him to take action to ensure that a similar bloc forms on the Right. That's exactly what didn't happen last time, when the joint right-wing ticket forced Gantz and Lapid into each other's arms to establish Blue and White as the main alternative to a Netanyahu government.
The Democratic Union ticket comes as good news for new Labor chairman Amir Peretz, though. Not only does it isolate him and his party from the strongly-identified leftist party – which will allow him to carry out his plan of trying to take votes from the Right – it also helps him put his own house in order now that Shafir, the main upstart who didn't give him a moment's peace since losing the race for party chair - left. A few hundred Labor members who think like her will probably follow her out of the party, leaving Peretz to run things without let or hinder.
Since the 21st Knesset dissolved itself and voted on a do-over election, not a single poll has predicted that the Right will secure the necessary 61-seat majority to keep Netanyahu in power. This past week, all the parties were busy with possible joint runs and preparations ahead of next week's deadline to submit party lists. But no merger or split, on either the Left or the Right, will change the current voting map, which at the moment does not give the Right a majority.
This has nothing to do with New Right leader Ayelet Shaked or Naftali Bennett or Barak and Peretz. This won't change because of a mega-ticket on the Right or a mega-split on the Left. It has to do with one person only – Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman. Given the polls, he decides whether Netanyahu stays or goes. The eight to 10 seats he'll get (depending on the poll) will tip the scales of the 2019 Knesset Election 2.0, and the Likud has been wracking its brain about how to change the situation and take as many seats as possible away from Lieberman.
Last week, the Likud launched its Russian-language campaign, which will be large and extremely well-funded. Figures the Russian-speaking public knows and admires, like Zeev Elkin and former Yisrael Beytenu MK Robert Ilatov, will be part of it. Having concluded that Lieberman's traditional voters care less about who is prime minister and more about issues of religion and state, the Likud has decided to take on Lieberman. Most of them have no problem with Lieberman saying he'll support the biggest party. When he promises that he'll work toward a government without the haredim, that's what counts.
Which is why the Likud decided to approach this target demographic from a different angle. They want to cast Lieberman as someone who perpetuates the problems faced by new immigrants, not someone who solves them. While the Likud's main Hebrew-language campaign will ignore him almost entirely, the Russian-language campaign spots will hammer the message that while the Russian sector proved that it can integrate into Israeli life in almost every aspect of life, it still chooses to support a sectorial party, which hurts its image and social standing.
The Likud will also be arguing that Lieberman knows that if he solves the problems faced by Russian olim, especially when it comes to pensions, his party will no longer have a reason to exist, which is why he torpedoes any proposal that seeks to address the issue. Only in the latest round of negotiations, which fizzled, did the Likud agree to grant every immigrant a pension in the amount of 70% of the minimum wage at a total cost of some 2.5 billion shekels ($709 million). Lieberman is the one who refused the offer.
The Likud campaign will suggest that the Russian immigrants become party of the ruling party and take part in leading it. Top officials in the Likud's Russian campaign will attack Lieberman on the immense gap between what he says and what he does, and promise that the Likud will take care of pensions and public housing. At some point, Netanyahu will make a commitment that the immigration and absorption portfolio will stay with the Likud as a way of ensuring that immigrant issues will remain under its purview rather than being entrusted to others.
Likud officials know that Lieberman will try to drag the Likud and the haredi parties into highly-publicized spats, which is why they plan to ignore him – at least in Hebrew. Whether or not they'll manage to do so is another question.
For the past few weeks, New Right leader Ayelet Shaked was waging a bitter battle with party co-founder Naftali Bennett about the party's future. The debate wasn't about the top spot on the party list, but rather the question of which sector it would be courting in the election. Bennett was convinced that there was a large slice of the Right that was disappointed with Netanyahu that had great potential for the New Right to tap. In the last election, there were a few different options: the New Right, Moshe Kahlon, or Feiglin. This time, the New Right is the only viable option. If the party didn't run on its alone, Bennett thought, the right-wingers who were over Netanyahu might default to supporting Blue and White or Lieberman, thereby causing the Right to shrink.
Shaked wasn't convinced. She sees herself leading a large, inclusive party that has a little of everything: secularist with the national-haredim, liberals and conservatives, men and women. As long as the debate raged on, the two couldn't arrive at a way of cooperating. Last Thursday, Bennett told Shaked he thought the party should take her path.
Shaked's gambit, if it succeeds, will bring in not only the New Right, Habayit Hayehudi, and the National Union, but also Otzma Yehudit and Feiglin's Zehut party. There is room for all of them under her leadership, and she intends to negotiate with all of them for places on the list.
The main person throwing obstacles in her way is Habayit Hayehudi leader Rabbi Rafi Peretz, who would probably be forced to forgo the No. 1 spot on the list and is an outspoken opponent of Shaked's approach. Netanyahu, who sources said was working behind the scenes to scupper Shaked being given the top slot in the New Right, will have to re-think his position in light of the latest developments on the Left.
But Shaked is ready for a scenario in which the negotiations fail and the New Right runs on its own. In that case, she say, she has a few interesting, even surprising, candidates for the list. For now, she's refusing to name names.
