Ehud Barak is treading water in the polls. That is a bad sign not only for members of his Israel Democratic Party, for a majority of whom this is their first foray into politics, but also for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Barak's decision to run in the election was, after all, music to Netanyahu's ears in this do-over election, not just because the IDP serves to splinter the left-wing bloc, but largely because of Barak himself.
It is hard to imagine a figure that is hated more by the Right. In the previous election, Netanyahu had to tell his camp that Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz was a disaster. With Barak, there's no one to convince; they already know.
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There are three candidates for the role of prime minister, Netanyahu said, Tuesday, in the daily video he uploads to his Facebook page – himself, Benny Gantz and Ehud Barak.
It's a little odd to refer to Barak as a candidate when his party is barely scraping the electoral threshold, but Netanyahu continues to try. The attacks on Barak and attempt to position him as a potential prime minister are aimed at inflating his importance, thereby turning him into a threat. The prime minister will not give up on these efforts until the deadline for submitting a final Knesset list at the end of the month. It is then and only then, should he see his efforts were unsuccessful and Barak remains a minor player in the field, that he will change his strategy and just leave the former prime minister's ambitions to die their natural death.
In the meantime, the messages coming out of the Likud are different from those we heard from the party the last time around. There is no more talk of a strong Right and a weak Left, but rather the juxtaposition of responsible and proven leadership with inexperience and hesitation. Although the legal issue is still a hot one that could have served Netanyahu, as it did following the release of the indictment in the middle of the previous election campaign, the prime minister now prefers to take a more statesmanlike line, clearly saying he will not promote immunity or any such moves that would harm the courts or the State Attorney's Office and leave the Justice Ministry under the Likud's control.
The media, by contrast, will be the focus of Netanyahu's attacks. Research he conducted points to a great deal of anger toward some sectors of the media among the right-wing public.
But none of these things will guarantee Netanyahu victory on Election Day unless the parties to the right of Likud join forces to form one party. The Right is predicted to do far worse in this election than the previous one, largely due to Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman's defection and stated departure from the right-wing camp. None of the polls show the Likud, the Right and the haredi parties garnering a 61-Knesset seat majority; and should the Right split up, the chances of that happening are practically zero.
The last time around, Netanyahu rolled up his sleeves and jumped right into the right-wing fray in order to bring about a unity deal between the various right-wing parties. This time, it seems he will need to work even harder. The fragmented parties remain as they were and have yet to be put back together. Netanyahu will not allow a situation where one party is on the fence. Whoever is not part of the alliance will be the focus of a political campaign aimed at erasing them as early as the polling stage, not at the voting stage as was the case with the New Right party three months ago.
