Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to face an uphill battle when it comes to forming a coalition in the wake of the second election, set for Sept. 17, a new poll predicted Sunday.
Netanyahu, whose Likud party won the Israeli general election in April, was unable to form a government after coalition negotiations deadlocked in the wake of internal squabbling between Yisrael Beytenu and ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism over the issue of haredi conscription, prompting the dissolution of the 21st Knesset a mere month after it was sworn in.
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A poll by the Maagar Mohot Institute under Professor Ytzhak Katz revealed Sunday the complexities Netanyahu faces ahead of the new election: The poll predicted Likud would secure 36 Knesset seats, followed by Blue and White (34), Yisrael Beytenu (8), United Torah Judaism and Shas (7 each), Hadash-Taal (6), New Right (5), Balad (5), and Labor, Meretz and United Right (4 each).
This would give the Right (including Yisrael Beytenu) 67 seats and the Left 53 seats. But if Yisrael Beytenu joins the Left, it would grow to 61, with the Right dropping to 59. In that case, Netanyahu would be left two seats short of a viable coalition, which could potentially send Israel into a third election campaign in one year.
The poll included 525 eligible voters and has a margin of error of 4.3%.
The survey further explored who the public held responsible for the failed coalition talks. The majority of respondents – 47% – said Lieberman was at fault, while 43% said Netanyahu was to blame.
Among right-wing voters, 72% of Likud voters said Lieberman was responsible for the failed political negotiations and 81% of United Right supporters agreed, as did 96% of Shas voters.
Left-wing voters, however, placed the blame squarely on Netanyahu's shoulders, with 82% of Labor supporters and 63% of Blue and White voters saying as much. In Yisrael Beytenu, 70% of the party's supporters said the prime minister was to blame for the failed negotiations.
Asked who they believed was best suited to be prime minister, 39% named Netanyahu, 27% named Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, 5% chose Lieberman, 3% said Blue and White co-chairman Yair Lapid, 3% opted for New Right leader Naftali Bennett, and 2% named Labor chief Avi Gabbay. Eighteen percent of the respondents named other people.
Bennett's party, which failed to pass the electoral threshold in April, was given a new lease on its political life and, if Bennett chooses his political alliances well, it is expected to secure five parliamentary seats. Still, this may prove difficult unless Ayelet Shaked, who joined Bennett in the new party but has since said she was reconsidering the move, changes her mind.
Political insiders said the New Right would have a better chance of passing the electoral threshold if Shaked – a controversial but very popular political figure – headed the party, as the move may regain voters' trust.
Given the political turmoil in the Right, many have called for the bloc's smaller parties – the New Right, Habayit Hayehudi, the National Union-Tkuma and Otzma Yehudit – to unite under one roster, so as to avoid wasting votes that could otherwise be lost.
The Left is also facing similar dilemmas. Blue and White – a union of the Israel Resilience Party, Yesh Atid and Telem – is trying to figure out what lies ahead, as is Labor, which is gearing up for snap primaries aimed at replacing Gabbay.
The poll also attempted to gauge whether the way in which the Knesset was dissolved would affect voter turnout and political affiliation.
Seventy-five percent of respondents said the circumstances under which the September election was called would not affect their vote, 11% said they planned to vote for another party, 13% said they not yet decided, and 1% said the latest political upheaval had convinced them not to vote at all in the second election.
Still, 64% of respondents said they would definitely vote on Sept. 17, 18% said they were highly likely to vote, 7% said they might vote, and 11% said there was only a slim chance they would cast their ballot again.
