The Code Red siren that woke the residents of Nahal Oz and the surrounding area at 5:30 in the morning, Thursday, was a reminder that the Gaza Strip is still there. Not that anyone in the Gaza periphery area really needed the reminder. Just a few hours earlier, explosive and incendiary balloons were launched at Israeli territory. In response, the Israeli Air Force struck Hamas targets in Gaza late Wednesday night.
A few days earlier, sirens went off in an even larger and more northern area when Islamic Jihad launched a rocket from northern Gaza at the Ashdod area. Fortunately, the rocket landed in an open area and did not cause damage or casualties. But unlike previous instances, this time, no one even attempted to claim the launch had been an accident. The rocket, according to Israel, was deliberately launched by the terrorist organization. The IDF Spokesperson's Unit even named the person who ordered the launch - Islamic Jihad's Gaza City Commander Baha Abu Al Ata - in what could be seen as Israel issuing a warning that, should the terror group continue on this path, it will act to take it out of operation.
These acts of terror are being perpetrated despite the explicit agreement, reached on the eve of Land Day with Egypt's mediation, to calm the situation in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. In a relatively measured response, Israel sufficed this week with restricting the permitted fishing zone off Gaza's coast from 15 to 6 nautical miles. As proof of this restraint, see the ongoing talks toward a long-term agreement, once again with Egyptian mediation, that the two sides, Israel and Hamas, have pledged they are committed to.
But these days are particularly tense. Just as they knew in Gaza on the eve of Land Day that Israel was vulnerable to extortion due to its desire to avoid an escalation ahead of Election Day and the Passover holiday, in the coming weeks Israel will once again find itself in an uncomfortable position vis-à-vis Gaza. The series of incidents that began on the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day will continue throughout Memorial Day, Independence Day and then Nakba Day in the middle of the month, but also the plethora of Eurovision events set for mid-May. The international attention Israel is set to receive as host of the song contest and the tens of thousands of tourists that will be in the country to attend the events will once again provide the terrorist organizations in Gaza with the opportunity to exert pressure on Israel, which will do everything it can to avoid having thing escalate to a confrontation.
In Gaza, they doubtlessly recognize this opportunity, but the policies of the various organizations there are not one and the same. Hamas is adhering to calm; all signs point to this being the case. Although it has allowed some activity on its watch extent (the weekly riots on the border, for example), it has done so with less enthusiasm than in the past. From Hamas' perspective, any incident that could lead the situation to deteriorate puts their principal goal of improving the economic situation - a basic condition necessary for it to maintain power in Gaza – in jeopardy.
Islamic Jihad, however, is less committed to maintaining calm. Its natural inclination is to isolate itself and fan the flames of the conflict against Israel. But in recent months, the organization has become further radicalized, and this has Israel very concerned. The changes to its leadership and the transfer of power to the young and radical Ziad Nahala are clearly reflected in the group's more trigger-happy responses of late.
Nahala moves between Damascus and Beirut. He is in constant contact with all of the arms of Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis and lives under their auspices and at their expense. As such, he is far more committed to Iran than Hamas; sometimes Islamic Jihad finds it difficult to withstand Tehran's pressure to act. While this was not necessarily the case this week, the firing of a rocket at Ashdod was another clear sign that while Israel is responding to Hamas, whether through missiles or words, the one capable of foiling both sides' plans is, in fact, Islamic Jihad.
At this current stage, Israel is continuing to stick with its usual line: The responsibility for any attack on Israel lies with Hamas. Even if Islamic Jihad attacks, Israel responds by attacking Hamas targets in order to make it clear that, as the group in charge of the enclave, it is expected to uphold its commitment toward calm. But just how much longer this policy will remain effective is anyone's guess; Hamas has found it increasingly difficult to contend with Islamic Jihad. It is not only the organization's military and political might and its ties to Iran, a country that is also partially responsible for Hamas' funding, but the knowledge it holds the keys to an escalation and from there the desire to appease it in order not to get dragged in behind it into uncharted waters.
It is doubtful that Israel should continue to play this game for much longer. It is giving too much power to those whose responsibility is limited. It is one thing to conduct oneself against Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar, a murderous terrorist though he may be but someone who is forced to contend with the economy and welfare of Gaza's 2 million residents every morning, and quite another to dance to the tune of Akram al-Ajouri, the commander of Islamic Jihad in Gaza and a man whose concerns are far more narrow/limited.
Seeking civil solutions
Already last year, ideas were proposed for changing the policy vis-à-vis Islamic Jihad so that Israel would take advantage of every single round of fighting to focus on causing it harm. While this has yet to happen, it may be that the time has finally come. Islamic Jihad has long ceased to be a mosquito in Israel's ear. The firing of a rocket at Ashdod this week was one example of how this terrorist group has clout and refuses to abide by the rules of the game. At the very least, this demands a reassessment of Israeli policy. While it won't lead to a change in the basic conditions in Gaza, it will remove the immunity Islamic Jihad currently enjoys.
In the meantime, Israel has avoided taking this step. May is not an ideal month for war, and it will be followed by the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and then, of course, the unveiling of U.S. President Donald Trump's so-called "deal of the century." These all present endless grounds – both real and imagined – for an escalation, which nevertheless is unlikely to happen: Israel proved last year its willingness to take a deep breath and make every effort to avoid a war, and it will likely conduct itself in this way in the future, including through goodwill gestures and by providing relief to Gaza.
Nor will the possible appointment of Yisrael Beytenu party head Avigdor Lieberman to the role of defense minister change the situation. Lieberman resigned from the government last November after his call for a widespread campaign against Hamas was rejected. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot opted instead to focus their activity on Hezbollah's terror tunnels in the north, although this rationale did not succeed in hiding their lack of basic enthusiasm for having things boil over into a military campaign in Gaza.
The new IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, is not fundamentally different from his predecessor in the strategy he seeks to adopt in relation to Gaza. While he may have honed the elements of preparedness for the possibility of an escalation, he supports civil, economic and humanitarian solutions that will improve the situation in Gaza for its residents.
In the meantime, Hamas continues to be a partner to this policy. Both sides have a long way to go before they advance the talks to the point where they are required to take action. Then too there will be dilemmas, foremost among them the issue of the bodies of the Israeli soldiers and the two Israeli civilians held captive in Gaza. Here too, creative ideas have been raised of late that have not yet reached maturity. It takes time – like the talks in general – during which the mediators hope trust will be built between the two sides. But time has its own rules. It also plays into the hands of those who could torpedo these efforts and change the situation in Gaza from one of calm to combat.
