Like runners on the starting line, party heads fanned out Thursday to start the race of their lives. As 10 p.m. – the deadline for parties to submit their finalized Knesset lists – approached, the two main contenders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) and Israel Resilience Party leader Benny Gantz, as well as the heads of the smaller parties, were still making last-minute preparations and adjustments.
Starting Friday, there will be no more surprises until late on April 9, when the election results are announced.
The prime minister was the main influencer on party lists on both the Right and the Left. After he exerted all his power to guarantee a right-wing bloc, he effectively left the parties on the other side of the map no choice but to announce their own mergers. Gantz and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid's joint list should be a source of pressure on Netanyahu because polls show their joint list drawing even with the Likud and possibly overtaking it. But Netanyahu is calm, or at least as calm as he can be during an election. This is exactly the scenario he expected and even to some extent created.
Netanyahu wants this tension. He will use it to spur on right-wing voters to vote for the Likud. The prime minister has two goals in this election: to ensure that the right-wing bloc wins at least 61 seats and that the Likud is the largest party in the Knesset. The first must happen for him to win another term as prime minister and the second is vital for him to keep his government united if and when an indictment is filed against him.
But the fact that the scenario Netanyahu wanted actually came to pass does not guarantee him victory or even an advantage. The biggest winners in the Gantz-Lapid merger are Gantz and Lapid. Not only because they've been saved the catastrophic criticism they would have gotten from their camps had they failed to do so but because, for the first time in a long time, there is a real chance of a change of government. An opposition bloc of 61 MKs against Netanyahu that includes the left-wing and Arab parties is within reach.
Lapid demonstrated responsibility by agreeing to step back and let Gantz take the lead, even when no one thought he was capable of doing so. Despite the political advantages of the merger, it wasn't something to take for granted. Lapid is the leader of the more established party, one that already has roots. While Labor voters abandoned ship and moved to Gantz's shiny new startup, most of Lapid's followers stayed with him.
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi joining the new party won't bring the added value its captains are hoping for. Ashkenazi is not an electoral asset, won't bring in more votes, and certainly can't move votes from the Right to the Left. He was never on the Right and his fans – if he has any – aren't in the nationalist camp. If they were, Netanyahu would have pre-empted Gantz and brought Ashkenazi into the Likud much earlier. Given a choice between Ashkenazi and another general, former GOC Southern Command Yoav Gallant, Netanyahu opted for Gallant.
On Thursday, the new joint list, which is running under the name Blue and White, met for its first meeting. A bunch of heavily decorated guys (and one sergeant in the reserves), without women, with vague memories of the last party with four leaders that tried to challenge Netanyahu, the Center Party. Blue and White probably won't end up like the Center Party did, with a mere six seats, but mostly because there is no other alternative to head the anti-Netanyahu camp. Labor Chairman Avi Gabbay has already realized, if too late, that he isn't really a serious candidate even for opposition leader.
It's mostly everyone else who loses. When the battle between Right and Left focuses on big parties, the little ones are at risk of collapse. It's a battle of titans between the Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu forces. There is barely any room for any other agenda – not economic issues, not civil matters. Not even corruption, democracy, or issues of religion and state. Netanyahu's supporters will find themselves supporting him on everything, and his opponents will scream about anything he does. Positions on current issues will be shaped depending on where Netanyahu stands. Even an esoteric issue like Israeli-Polish relations will be decided according to the love or hate people feel for the prime minister. While some will see the first rapid train to Jerusalem in the history of the state, others will see all the technical problems with the line.
Meretz chairwoman Tamar Zandberg read the political map correctly. Under her leadership, Meretz could be wiped out. She tried and failed to beg Gabbay to join forces with her. The fear every party leader feels about merging with someone who is farther left than they are runs through the entire political system. By the time they realize how big a mistake they made, it will be too late.
