Not far from West Virginia and Kentucky lies Portsmouth, one of Ohio's southernmost cities. Ohio is used to being center-stage in U.S. presidential elections as, since 1964, candidates who have won its 18 electorates have gone on to win the presidency.
Moreover, no Republican has ever become president without winning in Ohio, making it the ultimate barometer for where the winds are blowing in the American experience. This tradition continued in 2016, when Ohio voted Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump into office.
Trump hopes that the sympathy he garnered in Ohio two years ago, and the country's good economic performance over the past two years, will help Republican candidates in Ohio.
The Senate bid has incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, in a neck-to-neck race with Republican challenger Jim Renacci, and Brown is poised to win. Nevertheless, it seems that the real battle is that for the governor's post: Incumbent Governor John Kasich, a Republican, has exhausted the two terms he is allowed to serve by law and therefore is not in the running, leaving Republican Mike DeWine and Democrat Richard Cordray to duke it out with no clear advantage to either of them.
Ohio is an example of a state where voting for Congress is tantamount to voting for the president, which is exactly what can help the Republicans.
Ohio represents the Midwest, meaning what Americans like to call "good old American values." This makes the midterm elections a referendum on Trump's presidential performance.
Mainstream American media predicts a "blue wave" in the midterms, meaning a slew of wins in key states that would give the Democrats control of the House of Representatives, the Senate or both, but one must remember that similar predictions were made in 2016, proving false.
The Democrats have – again – focused their midterm election platform on their "anything but Trump" strategy, which seems to be the only strategy they know. On the ground, however, this actually seems to have invigorated Republican voters.
The same can be said for the ugly battle over the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Trump had personally campaigned for Kavanaugh's nomination to be confirmed and the battle all but made sure that many otherwise apathetic Republican voters would go to the polls on Nov. 6.
The world is naturally following the midterm elections, but on the ground, Americans lend special importance to the gubernatorial elections. Thirty-six states are electing a governor on Tuesday; 16 of those are races in which the incumbent isn't running and seven of the races remain too close to call – like the one in Ohio.
Trump has been crisscrossing the U.S. to support Republican candidates, especially in states where the race is extremely close, such as Florida and West Virginia, where he knows his base is strong enough to make the difference.
In Florida, Trump has endorsed Republican Ron DeSantis, who has a solid pro-Israel record, for governor, while Democrat challenger Andrew Gillum enjoys the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Things are not as simple in Ohio. DeWine is a close associate of outgoing Governor Kasich, who challenged Trump for the Republican nomination in 2016. Kasich was known as a moderate governor, who would team with the Democrats on various issues, such as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, more commonly known as Obamacare.
Visiting Portsmouth, I met with many baffled Republicans.
A local vendor told me that she is not sure who to vote for, saying, "Kasich was an excellent governor, but he was wrong on Trump. We're Trump people here, we want a Republican governor, but we don't like Kasich's guy."
Once a vibrant industrial hub – and the former shoelace production capital of the world – Portsmouth has seen negative migration and rising unemployment, and today it is home to only 20,000 residents, who only want hope for a better future.
Portsmouth is a small city, but it remains an important stop on any presidential campaign trail, as evident by the pilgrimages of presidential candidates the likes of Gorge W. Bush, John Edwards, Bill and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. There is something special about it; something very symbolic.
While the average American voter is usually politically apathetic, Trump has been able to inject new energy to the midterm elections and on a national level, the drive resembles that felt only during presidential elections.
This is felt well in Ohio, one of the 22 states that allows for early voting. Over 30 million Americans have already cast their votes, shattering records set in previous midterms. In states like Texas and Tennessee, for example, the number of early voters has doubled compared to 2014.
The Democrats know that they have to win 23 seats to gain control of the House of Representatives and the polls appear to back them, but the Republicans have a few cards up their sleeve, namely the booming economy and the fact that ordinary Americans sympathize with Trump's warning against the danger of allowing the Democrats to have the majority in both houses of Congress, which will see them control cardinal issues such as security, law and order and immigration.
It's the economy, stupid
If there is a chance that Trump will again stun the world and keep the House in Republican hands, it would be over the American economy's dramatic achievements since he was elected.
A survey released Sunday showed that nearly two-thirds of Americans say the economy is "excellent" or "good" – something only 38% said two years ago and only 27% said ahead of the 2014 midterms.
Polls reviewing overall support for Democrats in the United States show a drop in their advantage. In any case, what counts in the House race is the support of each district, and what matters in the Senate race is the overall support in any given state – not the national polls.
Republicans can also be encouraged by the fact that early voting is particularly strong in districts identified with Republican voters. Trump has turned out to be their secret weapon, while the Democrats have recruited former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden.
In a rally in Florida this weekend, Trump warned that if the Democrats were to regain control of the House – eight years after the Republicans humiliated the Obama administration and won it from them – they would strive to erase the long list of things he has achieved over the past two years.
One can criticize Trump, but it is impossible not to admire his willingness to remain true to his political convictions. Unlike other presidents facing midterm elections, Trump has no qualms about fighting for every vote without kissing up to centrist voters or the Democrats.
Trump is well aware of the fact that incumbent presidents usually suffer a blow in midterm elections, and he also understands that the voters who carried him to the White House will not come out in droves on Tuesday as they did in 2016.
This is why he has been appealing to his base, making very harsh statements about immigration policy and the American Left – just like he did in 2016 – even at the cost of appearing unpresidential.
The conversation in the U.S. already revolves around Trump, so why not use it to his advantage? Trump dominates the conversation, for better or for worse. If he loses the House as polls predict, he would leverage it in the long run, as he vies of a second term in 2020, no doubt by blaming the Democrats for foiling his initiatives. If the Republicans beat the odds and retain control of the House, Trump will take the credit and ride it all the way to a second term. The same goes for the Senate, where the Republicans are expected to win.
Mainstream media backlash aside, Trump remains a brand that the Republicans are all too happy to embrace. The midterm election results in Ohio are, as they were in the presidential elections, likely to be the overall indicator of the trend.
