As a member of the largest Jewish religious community in Jerusalem, Yossi Daitsh should have a big lead in the holy city's mayoral election race.
But Daitsh, an ultra-Orthodox Jew and Jerusalem's deputy mayor, is trailing three liberal candidates ahead of the Oct. 30 ballot, when municipal polls are held nationally.
Some political analysts see that as a sign that the haredim (ultra-Orthodox) are starting to feel freer to vote according to their personal preferences, independently of their rabbis' directives.
If so, the Jerusalem mayoral race could be a bellwether of ultra-Orthodox integration into wider Israeli society, despite long-time resentment over welfare benefits and military draft exemptions that the haredi community enjoys.
But reluctance among the ultra-Orthodox to rally around any single candidate also points to long-standing political splits among the community's three main streams in Jerusalem, which has had only one haredi mayor, Uri Lupolianski, who served from 2003 to 2008.
Yair Ettinger, a scholar with the Israel Democracy Institute and the Shalom Hartman Institute, noted that ultra-Orthodox society is at a turning point, with some members breaking away from rabbis' rulings, and "this may well manifest in the Jerusalem election."
Ultra-Orthodox men have traditionally stayed out of the military and workforce in Israel, devoting themselves entirely to full-time religious studies. While the haredi community feels that Torah study is no less of a contribution, secular and national religious Israelis resent having to "shoulder the burden" without the help of this substantial sector.
The haredi lifestyle has raised concern that a lack of skills within the community will ultimately harm Israel's long-term economic health and many Israelis would rather see them integrate into mainstream society.
Fueled by high birthrates, the ultra-Orthodox make up about 12% of Israel's majority Jews, and triple that – 36% – in Jerusalem.
In the Jerusalem municipality's administrative city council, haredim hold 14 of the 31 seats. One survey, on Oct. 12, predicted that this figure could drop to 8 in the upcoming vote – indicating a shift of haredi support to non-Orthodox party lists.
In Jerusalem, 21% of the Jewish population is secular, like the election frontrunner – former Deputy Mayor Ofer Berkovitch – and the outgoing incumbent mayor, Nir Barkat. Another 43% are religiously observant but not ultra-Orthodox.
Black-coated and heavily bearded, Daitsh, a 50-year-old grandfather, has cast widely for votes. His online biography plays up his years of army service, a haredi rarity. He joined Twitter last month and sent his first selfie last week.
He has been endorsed by one ultra-Orthodox stream, while the two others have backed career bureaucrat Moshe Lion, a non-haredi candidate opinion polls put in second place.
