The Knesset was set to return from its summer recess on Monday, with one question on everyone's mind: Will an early election be called and over what issue?
The hot-button conscription bill, which sets benchmarks for the drafting of several thousand ultra-Orthodox men each year, has long been cited as a potential trigger for early elections, but on Sunday the ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi party United Torah Judaism seemed to offer an olive branch.
In a make-or-break moment for the coalition, the party's Council of Torah Sages, comprising the leaders of its various sects, decided to seek a compromise on the language of the bill rather than bring down the coalition.
Israeli Jews, as well as Druze men, are required to carry out mandatory military service upon graduating from high school. Ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students and ultra-Orthodox women have enjoyed de-facto exemptions over the years as part of a highly-contested arrangement that has outraged many Israelis. The High Court of Justice has repeatedly struck down laws that sought to cement this exemption, saying such legislation is unconstitutional and discriminatory.
The latest iteration of the bill mandates the conscription of several thousand ultra-Orthodox men each year, but unlike previous versions, it does not penalize yeshivot or the potential draft-dodgers directly. Instead, it empowers the government to withhold funding from the general yeshivot budget if certain benchmarks are not met. It also contains vague and general language that essentially guarantees the punitive measures would rarely, if ever, be used.
Sources in United Torah Judaism told Israel Hayom that the overarching goal of the party is to ensure that the arrangement that has been in place for the past 70 years – a blanket exemption for yeshiva students – would continue.
"The current bill will serve that goal once it is tweaked, and therefore, as far as United Torah Judaism is concerned, there is not going to be an early march to the polls, at least not over this," one party official said.
Speaking with the haredi station Radio Kol Chai on Sunday, MK Yisrael Eichler said, "The council decided that the party will support the bill, so long as its language makes it clear that anyone who wants to engage in Torah study can do so without any disruption. If the bill infringes on this in any way, we will oppose it."
Fellow party member Uri Maklev said it would be counterproductive to call early elections.
"Maintaining stability serves the public well, as it allows us to advance solutions on complex, time-consuming issues. Regardless, even if elections were held, the general makeup of the Knesset would not be dramatically altered, so it would be pointless to go to the polls right now."
He said it would be best if the Knesset "focuses on the things it was elected to do, especially because the state budget has already been passed," adding, "a compromise can found so that the world of Torah study would continue to thrive in the Holy Land."
Ahead of the crucial Council of Torah Sages meeting on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the conscription bill "was good for Israel" and urged the UTJ leaders to "make the right decision." He said: "The bill strikes a balance between the needs of the military, which has provided input when it was drafted, and the needs of the ultra-Orthodox community. The bill must pass because we have to move on. This is my view, this should be the view of the government, for the sake of the country and the ultra-Orthodox community, and for the sake of relations between secular and ultra-Orthodox Israelis."
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Israel Radio that "there is no point in calling elections just over this bill; this would be irresponsible and serve no purpose."
He said that "there is no need to create disagreement on this matter and this bill is the best and most balanced bill for the state, for the Israel Defense Forces and the ultra-Orthodox community."
Despite the threat of a major political shakeup being averted and the conciliatory rhetoric from United Torah Judaism, coalition insiders said on Sunday that early elections were still very much on the table.
They noted that the coalition was still divided over a controversial conversion law, and said that Netanyahu himself may seek to call elections because he has his own political and electoral interests.
President Reuven Rivlin will address the Knesset plenum on Monday, as is customary on the first day of the winter session. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Opposition Leader MK Tzipi Livni (Zionist Union) will also speak. Supreme Court justices, senior police and military officers and members of the diplomatic corps, as well as former MKs and ministers, will also be in attendance in the gallery.
Analysts say the various uncertainties that come with early elections may have given MKs cold feet as under most scenarios, at least 40 MKs will not return to the next Knesset.
The Zionist Union, which currently has 24 seats and is the largest opposition faction, is particularly anxious. It is projected to lose more than half its seats if elections are held. Coalition parties, including Yisrael Beytenu, are also worried in light of the shifting dynamics on the right.
According to recent polls, Likud has been gaining strength, at the expense of other right-wing parties, which could result in some of them being left out of the next Knesset entirely.
Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein (Likud) told Israel Hayom that there was no justifiable reason to call early elections. "I don't want MKs to start slacking off as if this is their 'final shift' because elections are near," he said.
