East Jerusalem is relatively quiet – for now. But government ministers who were treated to an overview of the situation there following the relocation of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem this week came away with the impression that the quiet might not last.
Several experts had been asked to sketch out for the ministers what forces are at play in the east of the city and what scenarios are likely to play out there. The experts presented two completely contrasting possibilities. The ministers left the briefing confused; it appears that every side in the great debate in east Jerusalem these past few months sees the embassy move as proof that it is right and is digging in its heels.
It is hard to discuss the radical Islamist camp in depth. Naturally, this group does not tend to give interviews and prefers to stick to the language of violence, terrorist attacks and terrorism. The recent events in the north, the flare-up of tensions on the Gaza border and the opening of the U.S. embassy in the capital could reawaken it.
The radicals comprise a wide range of factions, movements and organizations ranging from Hamas to the Islamic Jihad to the outlawed Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel, all of which operate under the auspices of the Muslim Brotherhood and are ideologically nursed and, in some cases funded, by Turkish organizations. There is concern that this past week will serve as a signal for them to resume their violent, terrorist activities. This theory will be tested today, which is the first Friday of the Ramadan holy month.
The security establishment hasn't had so many concentrated intelligence and warnings about possible terrorist attacks – mostly focusing on the border lines in Jerusalem and Hebron – in quite some time. The warnings include the possibility of terrorist attacks committed from the air, stabbings and car rammings, as well as shootings and abductions.
Terrorist organizations and the inciters have the Temple Mount in their sights, too. "We will light up Al-Aqsa with our blood, because what is lighted with blood will never be snuffed out," said a spokesman for the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement who was filmed by security forces. Senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya also threatened this week to "set Jerusalem and the West Bank on fire in response to the crimes in Gaza and the [U.S.] embassy moving to Jerusalem"
Turkey is also taking care to fan the flames. This week, it expelled Israeli Ambassador to Ankara Eitan Naveh and declared three days of mourning for the casualties in the riots on the Gaza border, many of whom turned out to be Hamas operatives, as the organization itself admitted Wednesday. It isn't only Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is keeping things stirred up – it's also those who do his bidding in Jerusalem. Thousands of Turkish "tourists" have been sent to Israel in the past few months to "rescue and protect Al-Aqsa"; more and more Turkish organizations are spreading money around Israel, sometimes with the active help of Arab MKs. Erdogan, who is digging in his hold on east Jerusalem, talks about the "slaughter on the Gaza border," refers to the Temple Mount as "stolen," and promises that "Israel will be held accountable for its actions both in this world and the world to come."
The police, who had forces 3,000 strong deployed throughout Jerusalem on Friday, is aware of what is happening and will try to block any attempts to turn the Temple Mount into a tool of violence through the use of old libel: "Al-Aqsa is in danger!"
In recent weeks, a new group has appeared on the map of known threats in the capital: the pan-Islamic organization Hizb ut-Tahrir. For years, it has been working to found a Muslim caliphate centered in Jerusalem. Germany and other countries have already outlawed it; Israel has not. In the past few months, its members have managed to attract followers through rallies it organized in the byways of the Al-Aqsa compound.
Anyone who listened to what was said at the gatherings understood that Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is poised to transition from "dawah"– work intended to win hearts and educate the public in Islamist values – to violent and possibly even terrorist protests.
But there is also other news. For some years, many Arab residents in the east of the city have been becoming "Israelized." They have concluded that it is in their best interest to integrate into the fabric of the city; that it is in their best interest to leave the solution to the dispute over the city's political fate to the future and focus on securing budget funds that will close the gaps between the quality of infrastructure and services in their neighborhoods and those in the city's Jewish neighborhoods.
An exhaustive study by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, headed by Dr. Nabil Kukali, after U.S. President Donald Trump declared last December that the U.S. recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, shows that about 60% of the residents of east Jerusalem want to take part in the municipal elections this October. Only 13% think that east Jerusalem Arabs should not vote in the election. The results come as no surprise. They indicate that the trend of Israelization among east Jerusalem Arabs is gaining traction as a result of living in the same city for 51 years.
More and more young Arabs in Jerusalem are studying in Israeli institutes of higher education. To do so, they need Israeli high school matriculation certificates. There are institutions in east Jerusalem that prepare these youngsters for the Israeli matriculation exams. Families in east Jerusalem are increasingly sending their children to schools that use the Israeli curriculum: some 5,500 today, compared to about 1,000 only a few years ago.
Some 1,000 east Jerusalem residents request Israeli citizenship each year, although only one-third of the requests are granted. East Jerusalem residents comprise a major part of the workforce in several sectors. All these processes are gaining momentum and now, with less than six months to the city election, they are coming into play in local politics. Gershon Baskin, one of the heads of the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information and the person who initiated and ran a secret channel of talks that led to the release of IDF soldier Gilad Schalit, who was held captive by Hamas in Gaza for over five years, is running a joint Jewish-Arab party.
The party will be running in the October election. Baskin's partner is Aziz Abu Sarah, a native of the Wadi Joz neighborhood in east Jerusalem. Abu Sarah has returned to Jerusalem after a few years abroad and he and Baskin, along with dozens of other members, have requested a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. They hope to persuade him to revoke the Palestinian establishment's long-standing ban on Arabs in the east of the city participating in local elections.
Abbas, who is not in the greatest of health, has gone to the mats. This might not be the time to approach him with a request like this. Perhaps that is the reason Baskin is not pressing him to respond. These past few months, the PA leader has ratcheted up his statements on the issue of Jerusalem, creating the impression that as his days in power wane, he is trying to prove at almost any cost his fealty to the issue that Palestinians consider the core of their conflict with Israel – Jerusalem.
So the U.S. decision to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem, or as Abbas calls it – "the American settlement" – fell into his lap. Abbas takes almost every opportunity to excoriate the Americans. Not many people have noticed, but in his speech to the Palestinian National Council in Ramallah two weeks ago, he chose to emphasize former Grand Mufti of Jerusalem Haj Amin al-Husseini as the inspiration for the Palestine Liberation Organization. It is widely accepted today that Husseini had more influence than any other Palestinian leader on the ideology of the PLO and now the PA, which rejects the Jewish state's right to exist.
Baskin is aware of the PA leader's mood. "In the meantime, we are preparing the groundwork," he tells Israel Hayom.
"A lot of people in east Jerusalem feel like they're on their own. There is a new generation that doesn't understand how boycotting the [city] elections are supposed to benefit them. They know that it's not the Jerusalem Municipality that will decide the status of the city. On the other hand, the city council does decide on the budget for sidewalks and streets and sewage and water. A lot of young people are saying that this time, they should vote and they'll bring their families to vote," Baskin explains.
He makes it clear that a Palestinian will be the leader of the new joint party.
"I'll be No. 2 and then one Palestinian, one Jew, alternating down the list. There will be women. And secular people. And haredim. For now, we are concentrating on expanding our base of supporters. We are also trying, through various channels, to prevent threats and attacks against members who run in this election. We don't want to put their lives in danger. We don't expect Abu Mazen [Abbas] to support us, just that he won't create a disturbance," Baskin says.
Baskin knows the history. In previous elections, Arabs who wanted to participate in the municipal election came under threat by Hamas, Fatah and other factions, who successfully deterred them from doing so. In previous elections, with the exception of the one held in 1969, terrorist groups managed to torpedo any significant participation by the Arabs of east Jerusalem. Only a small percentage of eligible Arab voters showed up at the polls. Their lack of a voting presence expressed a lack of recognition of the Israeli government and in effect the unification of the city.
Maybe this time it will be different, although Baskin suspects that the opening of the U.S. embassy this week will radicalize the Palestinian street and delay the fulfillment of his dream. In the slightly longer term, he hopes, the Arab public will realize that running for city council is a good step for them to take. The joint party already has a name: Al Quds-Jerusalem.
But Baskin isn't the only one active in east Jerusalem. Turkey, which led the protests against the U.S. relocating its embassy, is also a strong presence. Ahmet Aydin, deputy speaker of Turkey's Grand National Assembly (parliament), visited Jerusalem and the Temple Mount at the beginning of May. MKs from the Joint Arab List and central figures from the Islamist movement in Israel are joining forces with Turkey on this.
Israel Hayom can reveal one incident that went undetected by the media's radar and was reported by the Lach Yerushalayim movement. At the end of April, a conference was held in Turkey that aimed to raise funds to strengthen the Muslim and Palestinian hold on Jerusalem. Joint Arab List MK Ahmad Tibi, the keynote speaker at the event, said, "Jerusalem is waiting for Arab investors [although the Turks are not Arabs] … to strengthen it as the capital of the future Palestinian state." Wael Younis, another MK from Tibi's party, spoke in a similar vein. Former MK Osama Saadi also spoke there about "our people's strength in Jerusalem."
About 200 businesspeople from 28 countries took part in the conference, which was organized by the Turkey-Palestine Business Council and Palestinian businesspeople from Jerusalem and abroad. The resolutions passed at the conference include "the establishment of an investment fund that will raise $100 million for Palestinian Jerusalem" and "funding for construction and renovation in the Old City [of Jerusalem] via the Islamic Bank."
This is another case of what the Israel Hayom weekend supplement has been reporting for the past year: Turkish nonprofit groups, some governmental, are pouring millions of dollars into strengthening the Palestinians' hold on the Old City and the areas adjacent to the Temple Mount.
Maor Tzemach, chairman of Lach Yerushalayim, has submitted the new findings to Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage Minister Zeev Elkin. Tzemach says that his group's researchers have identified widespread civilian and financial activity in east Jerusalem that is taking place through Turkish groups, mainly TIKA.
"The activity bypasses the Israeli system. It is designed to subvert Israeli sovereignty in east Jerusalem. It increased when Trump declared that the U.S. recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ahead of the embassy being relocated [there]," he explains.
Tzemach believes that the Israeli government is approaching the moment when it will have to make some decisions about the Turkish issue. Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan hinted this week that government officials are already studying and discussing the matter.
Dr. Ehud Rozen of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs is also following Turkey's moves via various nonprofit groups active in Jerusalem, especially since the American recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. He has discovered something about an organization called Fider, which operates out of Turkey and is linked to senior officials in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Peace and Justice Party.
"Fider deals directly with the Palestinian issue and even cooperates with the [Turkish Humanitarian Relief Foundation] IHH, which is identified with the Muslim Brotherhood and gained notoriety due to the Mavi Marmara flotilla. Among other things, Fider has signed an agreement to cooperate with the international Al-Quds Institute, which is headed by Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. The two organizations agreed to cooperate on Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa and 'bring the voices of the people of Jerusalem to Turkey,'" Rozen says.
Fider is even a partner in a broad-based campaign being waged on social media and in political circles in favor of the Palestinian protests marking 70 years since the "Nakba" [or "disaster" – the displacement of Palestinian refugees during Israel's War of Independence]. The campaign is being directed by activists identified with the Muslim Brotherhood. A week ago, they staged demonstrations in Turkey in support of the "March of Return" on the Gaza border, which this week resulted in dozens of deaths and thousands of wounded on the Palestinian side.
Meanwhile, Jerusalem is planning to welcome additional embassies. The Foreign Ministry is in contact with at least six countries who are considering moving their Israeli embassies to Jerusalem, along with Guatemala, which moved its embassy this week, and Paraguay, which is poised to. So far, the list includes Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Honduras, the Philippines and Panama.
