As part of his dramatic presentation Monday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed a clip of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif sitting comfortably on a plush armchair and proclaiming in English: "We never wanted to produce a bomb."
"Again," said Netanyahu, and the Iranian minister repeated his claim: "We never wanted to produce a bomb."
"Yes, you did. Yes, you do. And the atomic archive proves it," Netanyahu responded, and unveiled the half-ton of documents and files that prove that Iran's entire nuclear policy is founded on massive lies.
The Mossad intelligence agency's unprecedented accomplishment – breaking into the Iranian nuclear archives, retrieving thousands of documents containing confidential data and bringing it all back to Israel – did not make a big impression on EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini. She said Netanyahu's presentation lacked a "smoking gun" and that he had presented no evidence that Iran had violated the nuclear agreement. On the contrary, she said Netanyahu proved that Iran had malicious intentions to build a nuclear weapon but the agreement prevented it from going ahead with its plan. The proof was that Iran has abided by the deal's stipulations, she said.
Netanyahu was quick to explain just how wrong she was. The Iranians don't need to violate the agreement, he said. They are not fools. If they violate the agreement, they will unleash international fury. They are smart and they are waiting. In seven years, when the stipulations in the agreement expire, they will be able to build a nuclear bomb with the full approval of the European Union and the international community.
The European position – that action must be taken to amend the nuclear agreement to prevent the U.S. from withdrawing from it altogether – was the main impetus behind Netanyahu's decision to stage his impressive presentation this week. Netanyahu's target audience, and the reason the presentation was made almost entirely in English, was international: the American public, the European public, the citizens and leaders of Arab countries, and the members of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The objective behind unveiling the Iranian nuclear archive documents was clear: to convince the American public to support U.S. President Donald Trump should he decide to withdraw from the nuclear agreement. If, instead, Trump decides to amend the agreement and remain committed to it, Netanyahu defined the necessary changes as "turning it upside down."
Another important reason that influenced the timing of the unveiling was the positive impression French President Emmanuel Macron made on American lawmakers during his recent state visit to Washington. Addressing Congress, the French leader explained why the U.S. must not undo the agreement that the preceding Obama administration worked so hard to achieve.
Much as Netanyahu did before the nuclear agreement was signed, Macron went to Congress and made his case. Netanyahu knows all too well how much impact such an address can have on American public opinion and he wanted to swing the public opinion pendulum back to his side of the debate. This was particularly important in light of the newfound friendship that appeared to be budding between Trump and Macron and that was being highlighted by the media.
A 'major' decision
The public manner in which Netanyahu presented the dramatic material obtained by the Mossad agents was not just designed to influence public opinion, there were also diplomatic and security reasons for the presentation. The unveiling kicked off a special operation, led by the National Security Council (under the authority of the Prime Minister's Office), in which the retrieved information was shared with the world powers involved in the nuclear agreement - Germany, France, the U.K., Russia and China.
Until this week, the only ones privy to the sensitive materials were the Americans. Two months ago, when he visited Washington, Netanyahu handed the Americans incriminating evidence proving that Iran had expressly intended to deceive and misinform in order to obtain nuclear weapons.
Now a "major" decision by Trump is approaching, Netanyahu said. The decision will determine the fate of the nuclear agreement.
"I don't know what Trump will decide," Netanyahu said this week of the May 12 deadline when Trump is expected to withdraw from the agreement. "The decision is President Trump's and his alone. He is a leader who knows how to make decisions, and he will make them."
If Trump indeed decides to pull out of the agreement, it will be a boon for Netanyahu's position.
An ally turns into a target
Why does Netanyahu think the unraveling of the nuclear agreement would be beneficial for Israel? Because it would shake up the Iranian economy and force the Iranian leadership to recalibrate. According to Netanyahu, the most effective move at this time would be to stop the influx of international money into Iran. In 2015, when international sanctions that had crippled Iran's economy were lifted under the nuclear agreement, $15 billion poured into Iran, which then used those resources to seize significant power centers in foreign countries such as Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Ever since Trump announced that he was considering walking away from the agreement, the value of the Iranian currency has plummeted. If the U.S. withdraws from the agreement and reimposes sanctions, the Iranian economy will sustain a crippling blow. This painful hit will force the Iranian regime to choose one of two paths: Stop funding terrorism and investing money in the nuclear weapons program and the expansion strategy, or dramatically undercut the economic welfare of the civilian population, risking popular protests.
The reintroduction of economic sanctions on Iran would present every company that wants to conduct business with Iran with a dilemma: Do business with small Iran or with the superpower U.S. For the sake of comparison, Iran's economy is equivalent to 3% of the American economy. The American decision could have profound implications on the entire world, in favor of the powers of good.
If Trump decides to go with his new friend Macron and adopt the European position, which means introducing changes to the nuclear agreement but remaining committed to it, the information seized from the Iranian nuclear archive could profoundly affect and shape these changes. The seized materials contain three key factors that could dictate the changes: invaluable information on Iran's ballistic missile program that could be used to define the necessary restrictions on it; information on atomic materials in Iran's possession that can inform the powers as to what precisely needs to be destroyed; and extensive information on Iran's deception strategy, which, by exposing the weaknesses of the current oversight mechanism, can guide the establishment of more effective oversight.
Netanyahu believes that the next week presents an opportunity for the world to make significant gains in the battle against Iran. He has been issuing warnings about Iran's aggression for years, warning that Iran is trying to take over the world and achieve military nuclear status. Over the years, Iran has gone from being Israel's ally to a republic ruled by a dangerous, ideologically driven regime that views us as nothing but a target for annihilation. This regime has taken a smart, talented population, with a robust culture and indisputable scientific achievements, into an insane tailspin that has lasted too long.
But now, with the help of a strong American president who is not afraid of confronting North Korea and Iran, Netanyahu hopes that the Europeans won't drag Israel into another Holocaust.
