The details of the Trump administration's "deal of the century" are still under wraps, but the deal has become part of the election campaign and appears likely to keep the political system in turmoil throughout 2019. The right wing is already responding negatively, both out of a sense of real danger and a desire to differentiate itself from the Likud and demonstrate uncompromising loyalty to the vision of the "complete land of Israel." The New Right party has already expressed concern that the Trump plan could bring the ax down on its vision of annexing Judea and Samaria and shelve the hope of leveraging the Likud government to make a final decision on the future of parts of the country.
It looks like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has a favorable attitude toward the deal. This might stem from tactical consideration but it is more likely that because of his position, he is more familiar with the details of the plan than the public at large. Throughout his time in office, Netanyahu has taken a realistic, practical approach on the Arab-Palestinian issue. While he is blocking the implementation of the two-state solution, and in recent years has even caused it to lose traction in international public opinion, he has also refrained from taking the opposite steps of applying Israeli sovereignty to Judea and Samaria or annexing those areas. As part of that approach, he has opted to foster the autonomic rule of the Palestinian Authority while promising Israeli security control without harming Jewish settlement.
That policy has proven itself effective: On the one hand, it has secured relative safety and quiet, while on the other, Israel hasn't been forced to confront major questions about annexation and could maintain its Jewish, democratic character. At the same time, Netanyahu funneled resources into confronting the threat from Iran and strengthening Israel's ties with Sunni Arab states.
The scraps of information being published about the "deal of the century" create the impression that it won't oppose the deep reason for the past decade of Israeli policy under Netanyahu, and will even build on that policy and leverage it. According to various reports, the plan is based on changing Israel's status in the region. The plan sees that change as leverage in creating a new geopolitical order based on economic growth as the key to securing the goal of all sane actors: bringing about stability and the eradication of flashpoints, like the Gaza Strip, by improving residents' quality of life.
The deal of the century will apparently include the status of Judea and Samaria, as well as so-called concessions Israel will need to make, including some territorial ones. However, it is highly unlikely that the Palestine Liberation Organization and the PA leadership will be able to accept the general spirit of the plan, which will probably reflect the geopolitical and demographic reality developing on the ground, which means a significant step back from the Trilateral Statement U.S. President Bill Clinton issued after the Camp David talks between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak blew up in 2000.
Palestinian opposition to the plan will allow Israel to deepen and expand the process of tightening relations with other Middle East countries. Moreover, it will give Israel a chance to promote a deal with the Palestinians that is not based on absolute, irreversible solutions – one that is already taking place, without any formal announcement, and is based on an autonomic Arab-Palestinian framework that would allow Israel to manage the tension between its desire to maintain security control and Jewish settlements and its aspiration to uphold the basic values of the Zionist movement in the form of a Jewish, democratic state.
