On the surface, it appears the Islamic State terrorist cell wiped out by the IDF on the Golan Heights early Thursday morning had intent to attack. The proximity to the border and the amount of weapons found on the seven killed terrorists' bodies indicate they were planning for a battle – despite the lack of concrete intelligence to corroborate the suspicion.
Islamic State's branch in southern Syria has taken up position in the triangle region near the borders between Israel, Syria and Jordan on the Golan Heights. Its members have conquered a considerable number of villages, and last year significantly expanded their living space. Many of its fighters, who fled from the Syrian regime in other parts of Syria, fled to the Golan. Although the organization has almost completely avoided confrontation with Israel, focusing instead on fighting other rebel groups on the Golan, Israel has acted against it: Several assassinations of its leaders have been attributed to Israel in recent years.
At its peak, the organization comprised some 1,000 combatants in the area. Around 700 of those were locals, Golan natives who swore allegiance to ISIS; while the remaining 300 were foreign mercenaries. The former were also the first to surrender, when the Syrian army entered the area last week and began retaking the villages. They preferred to lay down their weapons – and reach understandings with the regime to ensure their futures – rather than their lives.
The mercenaries, on the other hand, had nothing to lose. They fought, and then escaped. Over the past few days, Jordan has intensified its activities along its frontier with Syria to prevent these ISIS fighters from crossing over the border. The IDF's pinpoint strike on the seven-man ISIS cell signals that Israel is doing the same.
Israel's action was possibly due to the Grad rockets that had crashed into the Sea of Galilee last week. IDF officials still don't know whether the shooting was intentional, to force an Israeli retaliation; or errant (and if so, it is no different than errant fire toward Sderot from Gaza). Nevertheless, the incident illustrated the highly sensitive nature of the situation on the Golan and the need for extraordinary vigilance.
Tensions on the Golan border will likely persist for some time, until the situation on the ground is stabilized. During this time, there are enough elements active in the area who can exploit the situation to cause mayhem.
It's doubtful the Iranians or Hezbollah will be the immediate culprits of this mayhem, as they work according to an organized plan of action and longer-term goals. The danger could come from ISIS refugees looking to channel their jihad anywhere they can or to go out in a final blaze of glory; or other rebel groups, who after working with Israel in the past will seek to exculpate themselves by attacking it.
The IDF is aware of these dangers, and therefore won't reduce its forces on the Golan for the foreseeable future, despite the end of the Syrian civil war. If the scope of Israeli forces on the Golan decreases it will only happen if the border is quiet. The IDF will revisit this deployment down the line, but its operational plan for 2019 is to change nothing.
The Russians will play a central role in molding this post-war reality. It could send a military police force to the area and deploy it along the border. From Israel's perspective, this would be both beneficial and detrimental. It would provide an address to turn to, alongside concerns that the Russians will not only fail to lift a finger (similar to UNIFIL in Lebanon), they will impede Israel's ability to thwart potential threats.
As for ISIS, its impending expulsion from Syria does not portend its ultimate demise. Beyond the Sinai Peninsula, which is flooded with fighters who continue hounding Egyptian security forces, other branches as well – from Africa to the Far East – ensure that the fundamental ideology serving as the bedrock for the organization that has tormented the world since 2014 is still alive and kicking.
