Only a hopeless optimist would think the demonstrations planned for Friday along the Gaza border fence will come and go peacefully.
It's far more reasonable to assume that the bar set last week will only be the starting point. These mass protests could easily deteriorate into widespread violence, obligating the Israel Defense Forces to react in a manner that could claim a considerable number of Palestinian lives.
This is precisely the formula Hamas has conjured up to pin Israel in a corner and rally global sympathy for the Gaza issue. Last week, this worked well for the terrorist group, and it appears that tomorrow it intends to up the ante.
Israeli defense officials have explicitly said Hamas intends to embed members of its armed wing amid the protesters for the purpose of perpetrating terrorist attacks. That was the case last week, albeit on a small scale.
But this week it could very well be the general strategy: Hamas terrorists could shoot at IDF soldiers from within the throng of protesters, with the dual goal of killing Israelis and goading the army into shooting back indiscriminately.
The result, Hamas hopes, will be mass casualties on the Palestinian side and the IDF perceived as a merciless aggressor. To make matters more difficult for the IDF, Hamas has also erected barricades on its side of the border fence and it intends to create a smokescreen by burning over 10,000 tires.
This trap is obvious to Israel, which in the meantime is adhering to the principles it established last week: not letting rioters cross into Israel, and safeguarding defense infrastructure (with an emphasis on the underground tunnel obstacle being built).
During his visit to the Gaza area on Wednesday, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said IDF soldiers have three missions: allow area residents to maintain their everyday routines, protect themselves, and avoid inflicting mass casualties on the Palestinians, in that order.
The IDF's ability to meet these objectives will determine, to a large extent, what the next few weeks will look like. Encouraged by last week's results, Hamas wants to hold these protests every Friday, with even greater aggression on Palestinian Prisoners Day on April 17 – which this year coincides with Israel's Memorial Day for Fallen Soldiers and Victims of Terrorism – and Palestinian Nakba ("Catastrophe") Day on May 15. If the protests gain momentum, Israel will have a problem on its hands. On the other hand, if Hamas fails to accomplish anything substantial, its momentum will wane.
The problem is that both sides have extremely limited control over the situation. Just a minor misstep in any direction and Israel and Hamas will find themselves mired in an escalation, against their will. Both sides have made preparations in recent days for this scenario, although they would like to avoid it.
Egypt is also involved in trying to mediate and pacify the situation, but it remains unclear how successful these efforts will be. In the Middle East, as we know, one tactical incident can force the entire region into a strategic tailspin.
