One doesn't need access to intelligence reports to realize the combustible nature of the Gaza Strip: The violent demonstrations on Monday and those we can expect again on Tuesday could prod Hamas to do something that will lead to a precipitous escalation of hostilities.
Hamas, to this point, has sought to avoid this situation. Almost four years since Operation Protective Edge, the terrorist organization has preserved the quiet and has even imposed it on other armed groups in the Strip. During this time, Hamas has pursued other solutions to alleviate the problems affecting Gazans daily – reconciliation with the Palestinian Authority, which failed; rapprochement with Egypt, which failed; and acquiring international emergency aid, which failed.
Even the "civilian" demonstrations near the border fence have thus far resulted in abject failure for Hamas. It's been eight weeks since it began bringing protesters to the fence area – some of them paid for with Iranian money – in an attempt to rouse international public opinion and along the way scratch out a tactical victory – infiltration of Israel to prove that the rage in Gaza is stronger than the IDF.
This was the main focus of Monday's demonstration. The protesters distributed aerial photos of Israeli communities near Gaza, to help them prepare for "their conquest." Hamas had hoped to overcome the dense IDF defenses along the fence and punch through in several locations, and even tried catching the army off guard by working 12 flashpoints (instead of just five, which had been the case up to now). The IDF was prepared and blocked every attempt to cross the fence or damage it, but it came at the heavy price of dozens of killed and over 2,000 wounded.
These casualty figures guarantee similar levels of violence on Tuesday. Everything was geared toward Tuesday, Nakba Day, anyway, and Monday's riots were just a bonus for the transfer of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. However, in light of the high number of casualties, Hamas will want to show there is grass-roots rage in Gaza and aim it at the responsible party – Israel – hence deflecting criticism over its failed management of Gaza and its economic ruin.
In Israel, officials are aware of this and are ready for another wave of violence, and also for the possibility that the demonstrations can provide cover for terrorist attacks and the abduction of soldiers. The IDF on Monday reported three incidents where armed Hamas cells targeted Israeli forces, and noted that members of Hamas' commando "Nukhba" force embedded themselves in the sea of demonstrators.
Deterrence efforts
To deter Hamas, Israel on Monday warned the group's leadership in Gaza that the IDF will escalate its response if demonstrations intensify Tuesday. The fact that Israeli warplanes attacked Hamas targets in Gaza for the first time since Operation Protective Edge in 2014 wasn't a coincidence either; it was a signal that Israel won't remain idle if Hamas abandons its self-restraint.
And still, the primary concern in Israel isn't Tuesday's riots, but what happens after. Hamas has invested considerable energy in this week's demonstrations. Even if the number of protesters is smaller than it expected, the high casualty figures create internal pressure in Gaza, compounded by the already existing frustrations over the dire economic situation. Hamas lacks the tools to deal with these problems and it doesn't have solutions. Consequently, the only possible recourse from its perspective could be to escalate hostilities with Israel, which would galvanize the population in Gaza behind it and perhaps provide it a modicum of support from the Arab world and international community.
Israel is cognizant of these calculations and has prepared for developments beyond Tuesday's violence. It's difficult, however, to shake the general feeling that Gaza is on the brink of erupting, or worse: an eruption accompanied by the collapse of all civilian mechanisms in the Strip.
This situation isn't transparent to an Israeli public currently focused on celebrating the latest success against Iran in Syria, the relocation of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and winning the Eurovision song conwwww. Decision makers in Jerusalem and IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, however, are very worried and have implemented a series of measures to prepare for the worst, including in the very near future.
Yet Israel must ask itself whether there are other avenues for preventing this escalation. The policy of using force along the fence is correct – we cannot allow throngs of Palestinians to infiltrate Israel, not only because of the immediate danger it poses but because of the dangerous precedent it would set. Even the scope of casualties is mainly the result of Hamas pushing the demonstrators toward the fence. Ultimately, though, these are tactical matters. On the strategic level, Israel needs a coherent Gaza policy rather than being dragged back there due to events on the ground.
