As things stand right now, 18 Knesset seats are still up for grabs, waiting for the undecided voters. That means that 15% of Israelis eligible to vote in the upcoming election have yet to make a decision. A majority of them will make their decision on the way to the ballot box. Some of them will decide based on which ballot their hands direct them to once they're behind the privacy screen.
Emotion plays a central role in the election drama, which has seen undecided voters continue to move like a ship caught in a hurricane, every morning certain they will vote for a different party.
My pollster friend Professor Yitzhak Katz mathematically confirms the above data and argues that a majority of the still undecided voters are situated within the voting blocs. According to another database, between one-quarter and one-third of swing voters are deliberating between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Blue and White party's Benny Gantz. Their internal dialogue sounds something like this: "I am a Likudnik. Obviously, there's no one better than Netanyahu. But enough is enough already. We should say 'thank you' and give someone new a chance, but does that mean my vote should allow [Gantz's fellow Blue and White party leader] Yair Lapid to become prime minister? We'll see. I might vote for Gantz, but I don't know if I'll be able to go through with it." There are also those Likudniks who have been influenced by their children, who intend to vote for Gantz.
On the other hand, there are those who contemplated voting for Gantz, or anyone but Netanyahu, and their internal dialogue goes something like this: "Gantz suits me – a former IDF chief of staff, Israeli-born, new, honest. At first, it was clear that I would vote for him, but I've seen how he has gotten himself into trouble on an almost daily basis, and I suddenly feel he'd be in over his head as prime minister. When I compare him to Netanyahu, suddenly I don't feel like I can count on Gantz. I prefer an experienced, if not the most honest, pilot to an honest but inexperienced one, and that's why I'll probably vote for Netanyahu, but I don't know if I'm actually capable of going through with it."
The candidate or political strategist that succeeds in cracking the DNA of these undecided voters, and is able at the last minute to invent the arrow that is able to directly pierce their hearts is the one that will win the elections. In campaign headquarters across the country, they are now thinking of ways to defame their opponents and once against evoke strong emotions in their candidate's favor.
No outcome would be a surprise in this election. The most likely outcome would be a small victory for the right-wing bloc, and for Netanyahu to continue to serve as prime minister. It is also possible the Likud and the right-wing bloc will seal a decisive victory, although no one would be surprised if there is a dramatic turnaround. Incidentally, a unity government in which three prime ministers (Netanyahu, Gantz and Lapid) serve in rotation is also a possibility.
Eighty percent of eligible voters are expected to head to the polling stations on April 9. I recommend that each and every one of them exercise his or her right to vote.
