The publication on Wednesday of satellite images of the Iranian missile base being built in Jabal ash Sharqi, a mountainous area 8 miles northwest of Damascus, serves as a warning to the parties north of the border that if construction continues, the facility will be targeted in yet another airstrike that foreign media sources will likely attribute to Israel.
A similar scenario played out in December. The BBC reported that Iran was building a permanent base for the Shiite militias it has imported into the war-torn country near the city of al-Kiswa, 13 kilometers (8 miles) south of Damascus and 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Israeli-Syrian border.
Iran either did not get the hint or chose to ignore it, but either way, the base was leveled not long afterward, prompting Syria to immediately accuse Israel of being behind the strike.
Israel has never claimed responsibility for destroying the base, but statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman have left little room for doubt regarding Israel's policy: It will use all means at its disposal to thwart Iran's efforts to entrench itself militarily in Syria and Lebanon.
Wednesday's report – or message, if you will – was directed primarily, but not exclusively, at Iran. Syria has paid dearly for the latest Israeli-Iranian skirmish on its soil, prompted by an Iranian drone incursion into Israeli airspace. Yes, the Israeli Air Force lost a fighter jet, but Syrian air defenses sustained a crippling blow.
Israel is now signaling to Syrian President Bashar Assad that it will not tolerate the recent development. However, given Syria's dependency on Iran, which has rendered it incapable of resisting its demands, it is doubtful the Israeli warning will have any impact.
The publication of the satellite images was also meant as a message to Moscow. Russia wants calm in Syria so as to benefit from the fruits of its economic rehabilitation.
The source who provided Fox News with the satellite images explained that Iran was sabotaging this Russian interest as its actions are destabilizing the region.
But much like Syria, Russia is also not expected to take any action against Iran at this time. As far as Moscow is concerned, as long as Russian interests and forces are not directly threatened, the parties can continue to play in the regional theater.
The third and main target of the Israeli message was Washington. One can assume it was not a coincidence that Fox News, President Donald Trump's preferred broadcaster, was given this information. The U.S. has so far refrained from countering the Iranian entrenchment in Syria and the new satellite images aim to prove the dangers of the Iranian resolve.
The U.S., much like Russia and Syria, is unlikely to act because its focus is on the report's impact on the upcoming negotiations about the changes Washington is demanding be made in the 2015 nuclear deal.
This means that Israel is on its own, as it has always been when it comes to the northern sector.
This is not without its merits, as Israel is essentially free of any restraints and can do as it wills, and it enjoys aerial and intelligence superiority. But this situation has several negative aspects, such as the lack of restraining factors in the north, which only spur Iran's activities.
Barring an unexpected twist, the Iranian base revealed Wednesday will soon cease to exist, but experience has shown this will do little to satisfy Iran's hunger for power in the Middle East. The fact that Iran is ignoring the verbal, diplomatic and kinetic hints sent its way raises the suspicion that without a "big bang," the necessary strategic change will not come to pass.
At this time, however, all the parties involved would prefer avoiding such an escalation, as it will surely spell war. But raising the stakes also raises the chances of the very escalation Israeli military intelligence has warned about in its 2018 risk assessment.
An escalation of this nature will include Hezbollah. The IDF knows that the public will demand a decisive outcome to any war with the Shiite terrorist group, which is why a top IDF officer said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will be in the IDF's crosshairs.
It is doubtful that Nasrallah was troubled by the threat. As one whose claim to infamy stems from rhetoric, he knows that the Middle East follows the creed of the iconic 1966 film "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," namely "When you have to shoot, shoot. Don't talk."
